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ALG Estimates Automakers to Reach $47 Billion in Revenue in September

Average transaction prices expected to rise 2.3 percent

SANTA MONICA, Calif., (October 2, 2018) - ALG, the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach $47 billion for the month of September, down 5.1 percent from a year ago.

ALG expects a decrease of $2.5 billion in re "The year-over-year ATP growth rate at the industry level remains strong in combination with an expected decrease in overall incentive spending", said Oliver Strauss, ALG's Chief Economist. "Robust new industry sales, a slight decline in incentive spending and growing transaction prices are all indicators pointing to a resilient indvenue for automakers partially driven by one less selling day this year. Additionally, incentive spending is projected to decrease 2.6 percent year over year. ustry."

ALG estimates ATP for a new light vehicle was $33,436 in September, up 2.3 percent from a year ago. Average incentive spending per unit decreased by $100 to $3,785. The ratio of incentive spending to ATP is expected to be 11.3 percent, down from 11.9 percent a year ago.

Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer September 2018 Forecast September 2017 August 2018 YOY MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini) $51,736 $52,576 $51,482 -1.6% 0.5%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) $55,532 $59,154 $56,326 -6.1% -1.4%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) $34,645 $33,448 $34,591 3.6% 0.2%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln) $37,499 $35,595 $37,207 5.4% 0.8%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) $37,276 $35,986 $37,213 3.6% 0.2%
Honda (Acura, Honda) $28,680 $27,288 $28,554 5.1% 0.4%
Hyundai $22,239 $22,865 $22,251 -2.7% 0.0%
Kia $22,450 $21,718 $22,556 3.4% -0.5%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) $27,093 $27,348 $27,421 -0.9% -1.2%
Subaru $29,199 $28,123 $28,581 3.8% 2.2%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) $31,946 $31,010 $31,887 3.0% 0.2%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) $34,305 $34,717 $34,916 -1.2% -1.7%
Industry $33,436 $32,678 $33,301 2.3% 0.4%

Incentive per Unit Spending

Manufacturer September 2018 Forecast September 2017 August 2018 YOY MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini) $5,431 $5,273 $5,405 3.0% 0.5%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) $5,775 $5,002 $5,855 15.5% -1.4%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) $4,655 $4,635 $4,594 0.5% 1.3%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln) $4,784 $4,473 $4,736 7.0% 1.0%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) $4,716 $5,215 $4,688 -9.6% 0.6%
Honda (Acura, Honda) $1,980 $1,958 $1,947 1.1% 1.7%
Hyundai $2,984 $2,843 $2,962 5.0% 0.8%
Kia $3,973 $3,883 $3,966 2.3% 0.2%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) $4,271 $4,471 $4,365 -4.5% -2.2%
Subaru $1,548 $1,077 $1,507 43.7% 2.7%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) $2,432 $2,783 $2,568 -12.6% -5.3%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) $3,762 $3,657 $3,747 2.9% 0.4%
Industry $3,785 $3,885 $3,758 -2.6% 0.7%

Note: industry and OEM level incentive spending is calculated on a sales-weighted basis

Incentive Spending as a Percentage of ATP

Manufacturer September 2018 Forecast September 2017 August 2018 YOY MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini) 10.5% 10.0% 10.5% 4.7% 0.0%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) 10.4% 8.5% 10.4% 23.0% 0.1%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) 13.4% 13.9% 13.3% -3.0% 1.2%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln) 12.8% 12.6% 12.7% 1.5% 0.2%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) 12.7% 14.5% 12.6% -12.7% 0.4%
Honda (Acura, Honda) 6.9% 7.2% 6.8% -3.8% 1.2%
Hyundai 13.4% 12.4% 13.3% 7.9% 0.8%
Kia 17.7% 17.9% 17.6% -1.0% 0.6%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) 15.8% 16.3% 15.9% -3.6% -1.0%
Subaru 5.3% 3.8% 5.3% 38.4% 0.5%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) 7.6% 9.0% 8.1% -15.2% -5.5%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) 11.0% 10.5% 10.7% 4.1% 2.2%
Industry 11.3% 11.9% 11.3% -4.8% 0.3%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company's operations.)