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ALG Expects Automakers to Reach $46 Billion in Revenue in October

Average transaction prices likely to rise 1.1 percent

SANTA MONICA, Calif., (November 1, 2018) - ALG, the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach $46 billion for the month of October, up 0.4 percent from a year ago.

ALG expects a gain of $172 million in revenue for automakers versus 2017. Additionally, incentive spend is projected to decline 2.8 percent year over year.

"With ATP on the rise and incentive spending on the decline, market transaction data are moving in a positive direction," said Eric Lyman, ALG's chief industry analyst. "ATP and incentives are also key metrics influencing used vehicle values, which continue to perform at near record levels."

ALG estimates ATP for a new light vehicle was $33,901 in October, up 1.1 percent from a year ago. Average incentive spending per unit dropped $103 to $3,609. The ratio of incentive spend to ATP is expected to be 10.6 percent, down 3.8 percent from a year ago.

Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer Oct. 2018 Forecast Oct. 2017 Sept. 2018 YOY MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini) $51,642 $53,643 $51,742 -3.7% -0.2%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) $57,927 $62,527 $56,723 -7.4% 2.1%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) $34,965 $33,724 $34,622 3.7% 1.0%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln) $37,905 $36,226 $37,307 4.6% 1.6%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) $37,570 $37,451 $37,382 0.3% 0.5%
Honda (Acura, Honda) $28,845 $27,588 $28,580 4.6% 0.9%
Hyundai $22,484 $22,917 $22,260 -1.9% 1.0%
Kia $22,589 $21,863 $22,579 3.3% 0.0%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) $27,331 $27,168 $27,394 0.6% -0.2%
Subaru $29,425 $28,118 $28,564 4.6% 3.0%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) $32,349 $32,092 $32,045 0.8% 0.9%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) $34,262 $36,547 $35,208 -6.3% -2.7%
Industry $33,901 $33,537 $33,533 1.1% 1.1%

Incentive per Unit Spending

Manufacturer Oct. 2018 Forecast Oct. 2017 Sept. 2018 YOY MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini) $5,316 $5,289 $5,695 0.5% -6.7%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) $5,633 $4,964 $5,943 13.5% -5.2%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) $4,434 $4,572 $4,600 -3.0% -3.6%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln) $4,390 $4,289 $4,757 2.4% -7.7%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) $4,440 $4,910 $4,451 -9.6% -0.2%
Honda (Acura, Honda) $2,018 $1,935 $2,036 4.3% -0.9%
Hyundai $2,772 $3,002 $2,869 -7.7% -3.4%
Kia $3,646 $3,639 $3,792 0.2% -3.9%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) $4,074 $4,036 $4,468 0.9% -8.8%
Subaru $1,203 $1,067 $1,252 12.7% -3.9%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) $2,438 $2,522 $2,645 -3.3% -7.8%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) $3,675 $3,519 $3,861 4.4% -4.8%
Industry $3,609 $3,712 $3,804 -2.8% -5.1%

Incentive Spending as a Percentage of ATP

Manufacturer Oct. 2018 Forecast Oct. 2017 Sept. 2018 YOY MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini) 10.3% 9.9% 11.0% 4.4% -6.5%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) 9.7% 7.9% 10.5% 22.5% -7.2%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) 12.7% 13.6% 13.3% -6.5% -4.6%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln) 11.6% 11.8% 12.8% -2.2% -9.2%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) 11.8% 13.1% 11.9% -9.8% -0.7%
Honda (Acura, Honda) 7.0% 7.0% 7.1% -0.2% -1.8%
Hyundai 12.3% 13.1% 12.9% -5.9% -4.4%
Kia 16.1% 16.6% 16.8% -3.0% -3.9%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) 14.9% 14.9% 16.3% 0.3% -8.6%
Subaru 4.1% 3.8% 4.4% 7.7% -6.7%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) 7.5% 7.9% 8.3% -4.1% -8.7%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) 10.7% 9.6% 11.0% 11.4% -2.2%
Industry 10.6% 11.1% 11.3% -3.8% -6.2%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company's operations.)