ALG Expects Automakers to Reach $56 Billion in Revenue in December
Average transaction prices likely to rise 2.7 percent
SANTA MONICA, Calif., (January 3, 2018) - ALG, the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach $56 billion for the month of December, down 1.4 percent from a year ago.
ALG expects a loss of $786 million in revenue for automakers versus December 2016 due to one less selling day in December. Additionally, incentive spending is projected to increase 2.4
"Despite significant increases in Average Transaction Prices, overall sales were no match for the blistering pace of December 2016, leading to an overall decline in automaker revenue on a year over year basis," said Eric Lyman, ALG's chief industry analyst. "The return of GM's "Employee Discount for Everyone" campaign resulted in the largest rise of incentive spending on a month over month basis among major OEMs. Collectively, automakers are bracing for slower sales in 2018 with lower overall production volume, which should allow for a pullback on elevated incentive levels."
ALG estimates ATP for a new light vehicle was $34,309 in December, up 2.7 percent from a year ago. Average incentive spending per unit grew by $88 to $3,844. The ratio of incentive spending to ATP is expected to be 11.2 percent, relatively flat from a year ago.
Average Transaction Price (ATP)
| Manufacturer | Dec. 2017 Forecast | Dec. 2016 | Nov. 2017 | YOY | MOM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMW (BMW, Mini) | $52,303 | $50,248 | $51,646 | 4.1% | 1.3% |
| Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) | $60,473 | $57,370 | $60,839 | 5.4% | -0.6% |
| FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) | $34,647 | $33,317 | $34,001 | 4.0% | 1.9% |
| Ford (Ford, Lincoln) | $37,958 | $36,278 | $36,801 | 4.6% | 3.1% |
| GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) | $38,603 | $37,435 | $37,712 | 3.1% | 2.4% |
| Honda (Acura, Honda) | $28,417 | $27,540 | $28,092 | 3.2% | 1.2% |
| Hyundai | $22,461 | $22,945 | $22,363 | -2.1% | 0.4% |
| Kia | $22,672 | $22,893 | $22,067 | -1.0% | 2.7% |
| Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) | $28,195 | $28,253 | $27,858 | -0.2% | 1.2% |
| Subaru | $27,941 | $27,986 | $27,979 | -0.2% | -0.1% |
| Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) | $32,791 | $32,618 | $32,470 | 0.5% | 1.0% |
| Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) | $35,310 | $33,597 | $34,780 | 5.1% | 1.5% |
| Industry | $34,309 | $33,416 | $33,723 | 2.7% | 1.7% |
Incentive per Unit Spending
| Manufacturer | Dec. 2017 Forecast | Dec. 2016 | Nov. 2017 | YOY | MOM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMW (BMW, Mini) | $5,312 | $5,819 | $5,397 | -8.7% | -1.6% |
| Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) | $5,003 | $4,797 | $5,186 | 4.3% | -3.5% |
| FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) | $4,260 | $4,275 | $4,226 | -0.3% | 0.8% |
| Ford (Ford, Lincoln) | $4,662 | $4,240 | $4,667 | 9.9% | -0.1% |
| GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) | $5,007 | $4,797 | $4,770 | 4.4% | 5.0% |
| Honda (Acura, Honda) | $2,006 | $2,152 | $1,954 | -6.8% | 2.7% |
| Hyundai | $3,095 | $2,622 | $3,147 | 18.0% | -1.6% |
| Kia | $3,413 | $3,369 | $3,439 | 1.3% | -0.7% |
| Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) | $4,368 | $4,330 | $4,372 | 0.9% | -0.1% |
| Subaru | $1,264 | $1,183 | $1,242 | 6.9% | 1.8% |
| Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) | $2,840 | $2,840 | $2,784 | 0.0% | 2.0% |
| Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) | $3,808 | $4,541 | $3,806 | -16.1% | 0.1% |
| Industry | $3,844 | $3,756 | $3,803 | 2.4% | 1.1% |
Incentive Spending as a Percentage of ATP
| Manufacturer | Dec. 2017 Forecast | Dec. 2016 | Nov. 2017 | YOY | MOM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMW (BMW, Mini) | 10.2% | 11.6% | 10.5% | -12.3% | -2.8% |
| Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.5% | -1.1% | -2.9% |
| FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) | 12.3% | 12.8% | 12.4% | -4.2% | -1.1% |
| Ford (Ford, Lincoln) | 12.3% | 11.7% | 12.7% | 5.1% | -3.2% |
| GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) | 13.0% | 12.8% | 12.6% | 1.2% | 2.5% |
| Honda (Acura, Honda) | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | -9.6% | 1.5% |
| Hyundai | 13.8% | 11.4% | 14.1% | 20.6% | -2.1% |
| Kia | 15.1% | 14.7% | 15.6% | 2.3% | -3.4% |
| Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) | 15.5% | 15.3% | 15.7% | 1.1% | -1.3% |
| Subaru | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 1.9% |
| Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.6% | -0.5% | 1.0% |
| Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) | 10.8% | 13.5% | 10.9% | -20.2% | -1.4% |
| Industry | 11.2% | 11.2% | 11.3% | -0.3% | -0.6% |
(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company's operations.)