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ALG Finds Automakers Expected to Reach $47 Billion in Revenue in November

Average transaction prices expected to rise 1.9 percent

SANTA MONICA, Calif., (December 1, 2017) - ALG, the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach $47 billion for the month of November, up 3.4 percent from a year ago. ALG expects a gain of 1.5 billion in revenue for automakers versus November 2016. Additionally, incentive spending is projected to increase 4.6 percent. “Automakers continue to experience growing average transaction prices, fueling robust revenues from new vehicle sales,” said Eric Lyman, ALG’s chief industry analyst. “However, the continued use of elevated incentives creates a sobering tone to the celebration. The increase in incentives may also be an indication that vehicle replacement demand from Hurricane Harvey and Irma has largely been fulfilled.” ALG estimates ATP for a new light vehicle was $33,660 in November, up 1.9 percent from a year ago. Average incentive spending per unit grew by $162 to $3,692. The ratio of incentive spending to ATP is expected to be 11 percent, up from 10.7 percent a year ago.

Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer Nov. 2017 Forecast Nov. 2016 Oct. 2017 YOY MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini) $52,376 $50,628 $53,516 3.5% -2.1%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) $62,261 $58,246 $62,468 6.9% -0.3%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) $34,193 $33,120 $33,608 3.2% 1.7%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln) $36,494 $35,525 $36,183 2.7% 0.9%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) $37,521 $37,157 $37,381 1.0% 0.4%
Honda (Acura, Honda) $27,812 $27,132 $27,544 2.5% 1.0%
Hyundai $22,020 $22,713 $22,864 -3.0% -3.7%
Kia $21,621 $22,541 $21,914 -4.1% -1.3%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) $27,861 $27,955 $27,145 -0.3% 2.6%
Subaru $27,890 $28,335 $28,118 -1.6% -0.8%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) $32,246 $31,989 $32,042 0.8% 0.6%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) $35,254 $33,575 $34,286 5.0% 2.8%
Industry $33,660 $33,048 $33,395 1.9% 0.8%

Incentive per Unit Spending

Manufacturer Nov. 2017 Forecast Nov. 2016 Oct. 2017 YOY MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini) $5,031 $6,450 $5,254 -22.0% -4.2%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) $4,844 $4,767 $4,967 1.6% -2.5%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) $4,516 $4,160 $4,575 8.6% -1.3%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln) $4,274 $4,060 $4,027 5.3% 6.1%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) $4,785 $4,469 $5,221 7.1% -8.3%
Honda (Acura, Honda) $1,933 $1,885 $1,987 2.6% -2.7%
Hyundai $2,977 $2,466 $2,850 20.7% 4.4%
Kia $3,612 $3,133 $3,883 15.3% -7.0%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) $4,079 $4,243 $4,448 -3.9% -8.3%
Subaru $1,041 $1,097 $1,077 -5.1% -3.4%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) $2,651 $2,467 $2,494 7.5% 6.3%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) $3,551 $3,891 $3,524 -8.7% 0.8%
Industry $3,692 $3,530 $3,773 4.6% -2.1%

Incentive Spending as a Percentage of ATP

Manufacturer Nov. 2017 Forecast Nov. 2016 Oct. 2017 YOY MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini) 9.6% 12.7% 9.8% -24.6% -2.2%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) 7.8% 8.2% 8.0% -4.9% -2.1%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) 13.2% 12.6% 13.6% 5.2% -3.0%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln) 11.7% 11.4% 11.1% 2.5% 5.2%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) 12.8% 12.0% 14.0% 6.0% -8.7%
Honda (Acura, Honda) 7.0% 6.9% 7.2% 0.1% -3.6%
Hyundai 13.5% 10.9% 12.5% 24.5% 8.4%
Kia 16.7% 13.9% 17.7% 20.2% -5.7%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) 14.6% 15.2% 16.4% -3.6% -10.7%
Subaru 3.7% 3.9% 3.8% -3.6% -2.6%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) 8.2% 7.7% 7.8% 6.6% 5.6%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) 10.1% 11.6% 10.3% -13.1% -2.0%
Industry 11.0% 10.7% 11.3% 2.7% -2.9%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company’s operations.)