ALG Finds Automakers Expected to Reach $47 Billion in Revenue in November
Average transaction prices expected to rise 1.9 percent
SANTA MONICA, Calif., (December 1, 2017) - ALG, the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach $47 billion for the month of November, up 3.4 percent from a year ago. ALG expects a gain of 1.5 billion in revenue for automakers versus November 2016. Additionally, incentive spending is projected to increase 4.6 percent. “Automakers continue to experience growing average transaction prices, fueling robust revenues from new vehicle sales,” said Eric Lyman, ALG’s chief industry analyst. “However, the continued use of elevated incentives creates a sobering tone to the celebration. The increase in incentives may also be an indication that vehicle replacement demand from Hurricane Harvey and Irma has largely been fulfilled.” ALG estimates ATP for a new light vehicle was $33,660 in November, up 1.9 percent from a year ago. Average incentive spending per unit grew by $162 to $3,692. The ratio of incentive spending to ATP is expected to be 11 percent, up from 10.7 percent a year ago.
Average Transaction Price (ATP)
| Manufacturer | Nov. 2017 Forecast | Nov. 2016 | Oct. 2017 | YoY | MoM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMW (BMW, Mini) | $52,376 | $50,628 | $53,516 | 3.5% | -2.1% |
| Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) | $62,261 | $58,246 | $62,468 | 6.9% | -0.3% |
| FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) | $34,193 | $33,120 | $33,608 | 3.2% | 1.7% |
| Ford (Ford, Lincoln) | $36,494 | $35,525 | $36,183 | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) | $37,521 | $37,157 | $37,381 | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Honda (Acura, Honda) | $27,812 | $27,132 | $27,544 | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Hyundai | $22,020 | $22,713 | $22,864 | -3.0% | -3.7% |
| Kia | $21,621 | $22,541 | $21,914 | -4.1% | -1.3% |
| Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) | $27,861 | $27,955 | $27,145 | -0.3% | 2.6% |
| Subaru | $27,890 | $28,335 | $28,118 | -1.6% | -0.8% |
| Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) | $32,246 | $31,989 | $32,042 | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) | $35,254 | $33,575 | $34,286 | 5.0% | 2.8% |
| Industry | $33,660 | $33,048 | $33,395 | 1.9% | 0.8% |
Incentive per Unit Spending
| Manufacturer | Nov. 2017 Forecast | Nov. 2016 | Oct. 2017 | YoY | MoM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMW (BMW, Mini) | $5,031 | $6,450 | $5,254 | -22.0% | -4.2% |
| Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) | $4,844 | $4,767 | $4,967 | 1.6% | -2.5% |
| FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) | $4,516 | $4,160 | $4,575 | 8.6% | -1.3% |
| Ford (Ford, Lincoln) | $4,274 | $4,060 | $4,027 | 5.3% | 6.1% |
| GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) | $4,785 | $4,469 | $5,221 | 7.1% | -8.3% |
| Honda (Acura, Honda) | $1,933 | $1,885 | $1,987 | 2.6% | -2.7% |
| Hyundai | $2,977 | $2,466 | $2,850 | 20.7% | 4.4% |
| Kia | $3,612 | $3,133 | $3,883 | 15.3% | -7.0% |
| Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) | $4,079 | $4,243 | $4,448 | -3.9% | -8.3% |
| Subaru | $1,041 | $1,097 | $1,077 | -5.1% | -3.4% |
| Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) | $2,651 | $2,467 | $2,494 | 7.5% | 6.3% |
| Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) | $3,551 | $3,891 | $3,524 | -8.7% | 0.8% |
| Industry | $3,692 | $3,530 | $3,773 | 4.6% | -2.1% |
Incentive Spending as a Percentage of ATP
| Manufacturer | Nov. 2017 Forecast | Nov. 2016 | Oct. 2017 | YoY | MoM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMW (BMW, Mini) | 9.6% | 12.7% | 9.8% | -24.6% | -2.2% |
| Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.0% | -4.9% | -2.1% |
| FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) | 13.2% | 12.6% | 13.6% | 5.2% | -3.0% |
| Ford (Ford, Lincoln) | 11.7% | 11.4% | 11.1% | 2.5% | 5.2% |
| GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) | 12.8% | 12.0% | 14.0% | 6.0% | -8.7% |
| Honda (Acura, Honda) | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 0.1% | -3.6% |
| Hyundai | 13.5% | 10.9% | 12.5% | 24.5% | 8.4% |
| Kia | 16.7% | 13.9% | 17.7% | 20.2% | -5.7% |
| Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) | 14.6% | 15.2% | 16.4% | -3.6% | -10.7% |
| Subaru | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.8% | -3.6% | -2.6% |
| Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.6% |
| Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) | 10.1% | 11.6% | 10.3% | -13.1% | -2.0% |
| Industry | 11.0% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 2.7% | -2.9% |
(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company’s operations.)