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TrueCar’s ALG Forecasts Vehicle Sales for June and Q2 2020

New and used vehicle sales continue to recover from April lows

SANTA MONICA, Calif., (June 25, 2020) – ALG, Inc., a subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc. and the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects total new vehicle sales will reach 1,098,960 units in June 2020, down 24% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 13 million units. Excluding fleet sales, ALG expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,014,927 units, a decrease of 15% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

“Automotive retail continues to show positive momentum, rebounding from April lows and performing better than initially expected as states continue to ease restrictions,” said Eric Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst for ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar. “Fleet is now also beginning to show signs of recovery, up twenty-two percent from last month, and we are also seeing significant improvement in the used market, where we expect used car sales to be up sixteen percent month over month.”

“While used vehicle sales were initially hit harder than new vehicles due to COVID-19 impact, we expect that trend to reverse itself now due to new car inventory shortfalls. Used vehicle inventory is always much larger than new and lease returns have been picking back up, adding a flood of two to three-year-old vehicles back into the used market. Additionally, there’s attractive financing and lower price points which are all helping spur increased demand in the used vehicle market,” added Lyman.

Additional Insights: (Forecast by ALG)

  • Total retail sales for June 2020 are expected to be down 15% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days and up 1.5% from May 2020 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Fleet sales for June 2020 are expected to be down 68% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days and up 22% from May 2020 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Total SAAR is expected to decrease 25% from a year ago from 17.2 million units to 13 million units.
  • Used vehicle sales for June 2020 are expected to reach 2,719,074, down 20% from a year ago and up 16% from May 2020.
  • The average interest rates on new vehicle loans is 5.99%

“Inventory availability will continue to affect new vehicle sales as a result of production pauses related to COVID-19,” said Nick Woolard Director of OEM and Affinity Partner Analytics at TrueCar. “With no inventory cushion, Tesla’s build-to-order model is expected to result in the brand getting hit the hardest month-over month with production stops completely shutting down order fulfillment. Toyota has also experienced outsized retail sales decline this month compared with other brands due to inventory availability, especially on their popular Toyota Tacoma. In the short-term consumers will likely have a harder time finding exact trims and colors for certain vehicles across the board due to these supply shortages.”

Quarterly Insights: (Forecast by ALG)

  • Total unit sales for Q2 are expected to be down 34% from last year when adjusted for the same number of selling days and down 19% from Q1 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Total retail sales for Q2 are expected to be down 26% from last year when adjusted for the same number of selling days and down 5% from Q1 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

June 2020 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by volume.

Total Unit Sales

Manufacturer Jun 2020 Forecast Jun 2019 Actual May 2020 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) MoM % Change MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 27,775 34,982 20,052 -20.6% -17.4% 38.5% 44.1%
Daimler 18,930 29,275 20,958 -35.3% -32.8% -9.7% -6.1%
FCA 138,478 206,083 137,119 -32.8% -30.1% 1.0% 5.0%
Ford 150,925 218,691 154,775 -31.0% -28.2% -2.5% 1.4%
GM 171,626 249,182 175,921 -31.1% -28.4% -2.4% 1.5%
Honda 107,737 135,901 120,977 -20.7% -17.6% -10.9% -7.4%
Hyundai 60,585 66,089 58,969 -8.3% -4.7% 2.7% 6.8%
Kia 48,148 56,801 45,817 -15.2% -11.8% 5.1% 9.3%
Nissan 68,469 123,504 65,349 -44.6% -42.3% 4.8% 9.0%
Subaru 58,873 61,511 51,988 -4.3% -0.5% 13.2% 17.8%
Tesla 6,561 14,400 8,150 -54.4% -52.6% -19.5% -16.3%
Toyota 147,675 202,352 163,421 -27.0% -24.1% -9.6% -6.0%
Volkswagen Group 46,683 56,697 42,205 -17.7% -14.4% 10.6% 15.0%
Industry 1,098,960 1,509,963 1,111,723 -27.2% -24.3% -1.1% 2.8%

Retail Unit Sales

Manufacturer Jun 2020 Forecast Jun 2019 Actual May 2020 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) MoM % Change MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 27,409 33,798 19,709 -18.9% -15.7% 39.1% 44.6%
Daimler 17,985 27,076 20,250 -33.6% -30.9% -11.2% -7.6%
FCA 124,062 158,176 131,240 -21.6% -18.4% -5.5% -1.7%
Ford 121,598 150,291 135,188 -19.1% -15.9% -10.1% -6.5%
GM 157,258 195,488 156,060 -19.6% -16.3% 0.8% 4.8%
Honda 107,129 134,685 120,021 -20.5% -17.3% -10.7% -7.2%
Hyundai 57,708 55,462 55,846 4.0% 8.2% 3.3% 7.5%
Kia 46,920 51,223 43,317 -8.4% -4.7% 8.3% 12.7%
Nissan 62,305 85,211 58,900 -26.9% -24.0% 5.8% 10.0%
Subaru 53,753 55,415 47,969 -3.0% 0.9% 12.1% 16.5%
Tesla 6,549 14,400 8,150 -54.5% -52.7% -19.6% -16.4%
Toyota 142,789 179,346 158,423 -20.4% -17.2% -9.9% -6.3%
Volkswagen Group 44,523 49,248 40,270 -9.6% -6.0% 10.6% 15.0%
Industry 1,014,927 1,236,347 1,040,054 -17.9% -14.6% -2.4% 1.5%

Fleet Unit Sales

Manufacturer Jun 2020 Forecast Jun 2019 Actual May 2020 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) MoM % Change MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 366 1,184 343 -69.0% -67.8% 6.8% 11.0%
Daimler 944 2,199 708 -57.1% -55.3% 33.5% 38.8%
FCA 14,417 47,907 5,879 -69.9% -68.7% 145.2% 155.0%
Ford 29,327 68,400 19,587 -57.1% -55.4% 49.7% 55.7%
GM 14,369 53,694 19,861 -73.2% -72.2% -27.7% -24.8%
Honda 608 1,216 956 -50.0% -48.0% -36.4% -33.8%
Hyundai 2,877 10,627 3,123 -72.9% -71.8% -7.9% -4.2%
Kia 1,227 5,578 2,500 -78.0% -77.1% -50.9% -49.0%
Nissan 6,164 38,293 6,449 -83.9% -83.3% -4.4% -0.6%
Subaru 5,120 6,096 4,019 -16.0% -12.6% 27.4% 32.5%
Tesla 12 - - - - - -
Toyota 4,886 23,006 4,998 -78.8% -77.9% -2.2% 1.7%
Volkswagen Group 2,159 7,449 1,935 -71.0% -69.9% 11.6% 16.0%
Industry 84,033 273,616 71,669 -69.3% -68.1% 17.3% 21.9%

Fleet Penetration

Manufacturer Jun 2020 Forecast Jun 2019 Actual May 2020 Actual YoY % Change MoM % Change
BMW 1.3% 3.4% 1.7% -61.0% -22.9%
Daimler 5.0% 7.5% 3.4% -33.6% 47.8%
FCA 10.4% 23.2% 4.3% -55.2% 142.8%
Ford 19.4% 31.3% 12.7% -37.9% 53.5%
GM 8.4% 21.5% 11.3% -61.1% -25.8%
Honda 0.6% 0.9% 0.8% -36.9% -28.6%
Hyundai 4.7% 16.1% 5.3% -70.5% -10.3%
Kia 2.5% 9.8% 5.5% -74.0% -53.3%
Nissan 9.0% 31.0% 9.9% -71.0% -8.8%
Subaru 8.7% 9.9% 7.7% -12.2% 12.5%
Tesla 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% - -
Toyota 3.3% 11.4% 3.1% -70.9% 8.2%
Volkswagen Group 4.6% 13.1% 4.6% -64.8% 0.9%
Industry 7.6% 18.1% 6.4% -57.8% 18.6%

Total Market Share

Manufacturer Jun 2020 Forecast Jun 2019 Actual May 2020 Actual
BMW 2.5% 2.3% 1.8%
Daimler 1.7% 1.9% 1.9%
FCA 12.6% 13.6% 12.3%
Ford 13.7% 14.5% 13.9%
GM 15.6% 16.5% 15.8%
Honda 9.8% 9.0% 10.9%
Hyundai 5.5% 4.4% 5.3%
Kia 4.4% 3.8% 4.1%
Nissan 6.2% 8.2% 5.9%
Subaru 5.4% 4.1% 4.7%
Tesla 0.6% 1.0% 0.7%
Toyota 13.4% 13.4% 14.7%
Volkswagen Group 4.2% 3.8% 3.8%

Retail Market Share

Manufacturer Jun 2020 Forecast Jun 2019 Actual May 2020 Actual
BMW 2.7% 2.7% 1.9%
Daimler 1.8% 2.2% 1.9%
FCA 12.2% 12.8% 12.6%
Ford 12.0% 12.2% 13.0%
GM 15.5% 15.8% 15.0%
Honda 10.6% 10.9% 11.5%
Hyundai 5.7% 4.5% 5.4%
Kia 4.6% 4.1% 4.2%
Nissan 6.1% 6.9% 5.7%
Subaru 5.3% 4.5% 4.6%
Tesla 0.6% 1.2% 0.8%
Toyota 14.1% 14.5% 15.2%
Volkswagen Group 4.4% 4.0% 3.9%

Quarterly Tables

Total Unit Sales, Quarterly

Manufacturer Q2 2020 Q2 2019 Q1 2020 YoY % Change YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) QoQ % Change QoQ % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 55,983 91,230 65,237 -38.6% -38.6% -14.2% -15.3%
Daimler 51,166 85,039 69,846 -39.8% -39.8% -26.7% -27.7%
FCA 368,587 600,434 445,345 -38.6% -38.6% -17.2% -18.3%
Ford 425,291 644,498 529,556 -34.0% -34.0% -19.7% -20.7%
GM 485,120 744,316 643,541 -34.8% -34.8% -24.6% -25.6%
Honda 286,465 407,208 298,726 -29.7% -29.7% -4.1% -5.3%
Hyundai 154,328 191,548 134,700 -19.4% -19.4% 14.6% 13.1%
Kia 125,670 168,248 137,851 -25.3% -25.3% -8.8% -10.0%
Nissan 180,507 351,185 256,703 -48.6% -48.6% -29.7% -30.6%
Subaru 141,481 182,771 130,590 -22.6% -22.6% 8.3% 6.9%
Tesla 18,428 36,300 56,200 -49.2% -49.2% -67.2% -67.6%
Toyota 396,259 608,392 494,668 -34.9% -34.9% -19.9% -20.9%
Volkswagen Group 116,967 167,694 128,935 -30.2% -30.2% -9.3% -10.5%
Industry 2,921,510 4,431,851 3,548,037 -34.1% -34.1% -17.7% -18.7%

Retail Unit Sales, Quarterly

Manufacturer Q2 2020 Q2 2019 Q1 2020 YoY % Change YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) QoQ % Change QoQ % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 55,245 88,362 59,172 -37.5% -37.5% -6.6% -7.8%
Daimler 48,613 79,056 64,985 -38.5% -38.5% -25.2% -26.2%
FCA 330,214 438,080 325,269 -24.6% -24.6% 1.5% 0.2%
Ford 342,650 427,648 334,639 -19.9% -19.9% 2.4% 1.1%
GM 444,506 601,826 447,663 -26.1% -26.1% -0.7% -2.0%
Honda 284,849 402,815 293,904 -29.3% -29.3% -3.1% -4.3%
Hyundai 146,999 148,388 107,112 -0.9% -0.9% 37.2% 35.5%
Kia 122,467 141,334 116,732 -13.3% -13.3% 4.9% 3.6%
Nissan 164,256 237,538 177,572 -30.9% -30.9% -7.5% -8.7%
Subaru 129,176 165,116 123,192 -21.8% -21.8% 4.9% 3.5%
Tesla 18,321 36,300 56,200 -49.5% -49.5% -67.4% -67.8%
Toyota 383,148 535,550 420,712 -28.5% -28.5% -8.9% -10.1%
Volkswagen Group 111,556 149,356 113,520 -25.3% -25.3% -1.7% -3.0%
Industry 2,664,766 3,588,832 2,761,404 -25.7% -25.7% -3.5% -4.8%

Total Market Share, Quarterly

Manufacturer Q2 2020 Q2 2019 Q1 2020
BMW 1.9% 2.1% 1.8%
Daimler 1.8% 1.9% 2.0%
FCA 12.6% 13.5% 12.6%
Ford 14.6% 14.5% 14.9%
GM 16.6% 16.8% 18.1%
Honda 9.8% 9.2% 8.4%
Hyundai 5.3% 4.3% 3.8%
Kia 4.3% 3.8% 3.9%
Nissan 6.2% 7.9% 7.2%
Subaru 4.8% 4.1% 3.7%
Tesla 0.6% 0.8% 1.6%
Toyota 13.6% 13.7% 13.9%
Volkswagen Group 4.0% 3.8% 3.6%

Retail Market Share, Quarterly

Manufacturer Q2 2020 Q2 2019 Q1 2020
BMW 2.1% 2.5% 2.1%
Daimler 1.8% 2.2% 2.4%
FCA 12.4% 12.2% 11.8%
Ford 12.9% 11.9% 12.1%
GM 16.7% 16.8% 16.2%
Honda 10.7% 11.2% 10.6%
Hyundai 5.5% 4.1% 3.9%
Kia 4.6% 3.9% 4.2%
Nissan 6.2% 6.6% 6.4%
Subaru 4.8% 4.6% 4.5%
Tesla 0.7% 1.0% 2.0%
Toyota 14.4% 14.9% 15.2%
Volkswagen Group 4.2% 4.2% 4.1%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.’s operations.)

About ALG
Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 55 years and in Canada since 1981.

About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables car buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry’s most personalized and efficient car buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings and market context on new and used cars – all with a clear view of what’s a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great car buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers car-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam’s Club, and American Express. Nearly half of all new-car buyers engage with TrueCar powered sites, where they buy smarter and drive happier. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in Austin, Texas and Boston, Massachusetts.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free), Email: pr@truecar.com.

TrueCar and ALG PR Contact:
Shadee Malekafzali
shadee@truecar.com
424.258.8694