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ALG Projects Automakers to Reach $50 Billion in Revenue in August

Average transaction prices expected to rise 1.7 percent

SANTA MONICA, Calif., (September 4, 2018) - ALG, the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach $50 billion for the month of August, up 3.1 percent from a year ago.

ALG expects a gain of $1.5 billion in revenue for automakers. Additionally, incentive spending is projected to increase 0.7 percent year over year.

"Automakers are still deciphering a complex sales environment in 2018, where softer retail demand is being offset by continued growth in Average Transaction Prices (ATP) resulting in overall revenue growth," said Eric Lyman, ALG's Chief Analyst. "Luxury automakers, Daimler and BMW, are showing year over year declines in ATP with higher incentives, despite a resilient economy that would typically buoy premium brands. On the mainstream side, FCA continues to ride a wave of successful launches by Jeep and Ram to hit a trifecta of sales and ATP growth while reducing incentives."

ALG estimates ATP for a new light vehicle was $33,179 in August, up 1.7 percent from a year ago. Average incentive spending per unit grew by $26 to $3,757. The ratio of incentive spending to ATP is expected to be 11.3 percent, down from 11.4 percent a year ago.

Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer August 2018 Forecast August 2017 July 2018 YOY MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini) $51,198 $51,578 $51,426 -0.7% -0.4%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) $56,953 $58,355 $56,267 -2.4% 1.2%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) $34,576 $33,525 $34,405 3.1% 0.5%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln) $37,137 $35,652 $36,608 4.2% 1.4%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) $36,764 $36,068 $36,415 1.9% 1.0%
Honda (Acura, Honda) $28,457 $27,130 $28,085 4.9% 1.3%
Hyundai $22,184 $22,947 $22,142 -3.3% 0.2%
Kia $22,733 $22,043 $22,540 3.1% 0.9%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) $27,052 $27,730 $27,586 -2.4% -1.9%
Subaru $28,519 $27,991 $28,516 1.9% 0.0%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) $31,586 $30,694 $31,659 2.9% -0.2%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) $35,213 $34,754 $35,040 1.3% 0.5%
Industry $33,179 $32,630 $32,923 1.7% 0.8%

Incentive per Unit Spending

Manufacturer August 2018 Forecast August 2017 July 2018 YOY MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini) $5,679 $4,793 $5,812 18.5% -2.3%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) $4,915 $4,591 $5,267 7.1% -6.7%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) $4,425 $4,447 $4,462 -0.5% -0.8%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln) $4,649 $4,298 $4,629 8.2% 0.4%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) $4,820 $4,948 $4,943 -2.6% -2.5%
Honda (Acura, Honda) $2,064 $1,972 $1,935 4.7% 6.7%
Hyundai $2,945 $2,787 $2,946 5.7% 0.0%
Kia $4,347 $3,768 $4,313 15.4% 0.8%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) $3,967 $4,442 $4,068 -10.7% -2.5%
Subaru $1,600 $1,026 $1,621 55.9% -1.3%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) $2,600 $2,865 $2,633 -9.3% -1.3%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) $3,750 $3,745 $3,862 0.2% -2.9%
Industry $3,757 $3,731 $3,779 0.7% -0.6%

Incentive Spending as a Percentage of ATP

Manufacturer August 2018 Forecast August 2017 July 2018 YOY MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini) 11.1% 9.3% 11.3% 19.4% -1.8%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) 8.6% 7.9% 9.4% 9.7% -7.8%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) 12.8% 13.3% 13.0% -3.5% -1.3%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln) 12.5% 12.1% 12.6% 3.9% -1.0%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) 13.1% 13.7% 13.6% -4.4% -3.4%
Honda (Acura, Honda) 7.3% 7.3% 6.9% -0.2% 5.3%
Hyundai 13.3% 12.1% 13.3% 9.3% -0.2%
Kia 19.1% 17.1% 19.1% 11.9% -0.1%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) 14.7% 16.0% 14.7% -8.4% -0.5%
Subaru 5.6% 3.7% 5.7% 53.1% -1.3%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) 8.2% 9.3% 8.3% -11.8% -1.0%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) 10.7% 10.8% 11.0% -1.1% -3.4%
Industry 11.3% 11.4% 11.5% -1.0% -1.3%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company's operations.)