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ALG Projects Automakers to Reach $50 billion in Revenue in June

Average transaction prices expected to rise 0.7 percent

SANTA MONICA, Calif., (July 3, 2018) - ALG, the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach $50 billion for the month of June, up 2.2 percent from a year ago.

ALG expects a gain of $1 billion in revenue for automakers versus 2017 partially driven by one more selling day in June 2018. Additionally, incentive spending is projected to increase 4.6 percent year over year.

"ATP is growing in pure dollar terms at a higher rate than incentive spending; however, incentive spending as a percentage of ATP is increasing as automakers chase share in a resilient high sales environment," said Eric Lyman, ALG's chief industry analyst. "The key storyline for June is the diverging paths of FCA and GM. While FCA sees positive ATP growth fueled by crossovers and a new Ram 1500, GM is experiencing a year over year decline in the same metric ahead of the launch of an all new fullsize pickup truck portfolio."

ALG estimates ATP for a new light vehicle was $33,148 in June, up 0.7 percent from a year ago. Average incentive spending per unit grew by $167 to $3,779. The ratio of incentive spending to ATP is expected to be 11.4 percent, up from 11 percent a year ago.

Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer June 2018 Forecast June 2017 May 2018 YOY MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini) $51,753 $51,733 $51,865 0.0% -0.2%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) $58,721 $58,886 $58,177 -0.3% 0.9%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) $34,390 $33,216 $33,950 3.5% 1.3%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln) $36,325 $35,701 $36,375 1.7% -0.1%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) $36,552 $37,352 $36,537 -2.1% 0.0%
Honda (Acura, Honda) $27,877 $27,672 $27,652 0.7% 0.8%
Hyundai $22,130 $22,636 $22,259 -2.2% -0.6%
Kia $22,590 $22,425 $22,551 0.7% 0.2%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) $27,419 $27,310 $27,593 0.4% -0.6%
Subaru $27,704 $27,498 $27,463 0.7% 0.9%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) $31,646 $30,917 $31,786 2.4% -0.4%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) $35,654 $35,641 $35,365 0.0% 0.8%
Industry $33,148 $32,931 $32,993 0.7%

Incentive per Unit Spending

Manufacturer June 2018 Forecast June 2017 May 2018 YOY MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini) $5,585 $4,564 $5,609 22.4% -0.4%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) $5,759 $5,057 $6,055 13.9% -4.9%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) $4,526 $4,387 $4,472 3.2% 1.2%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln) $4,400 $4,312 $4,345 2.1% 1.3%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) $5,256 $4,444 $5,330 18.3% -1.4%
Honda (Acura, Honda) $1,940 $2,007 $1,883 -3.3% 3.0%
Hyundai $2,809 $3,192 $2,807 -12.0% 0.1%
Kia $3,834 $3,437 $3,833 11.6% 0.0%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) $3,703 $4,086 $3,665 -9.4% 1.0%
Subaru $1,499 $957 $1,464 56.6% 2.4%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) $2,288 $2,669 $2,222 -14.3% 3.0%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) $3,828 $3,149 $3,926 21.6% -2.5%
Industry $3,779 $3,612 $3,738 4.6% 1.1%

Incentive Spending as a Percentage of ATP

Manufacturer June 2018 Forecast June 2017 May 2018 YOY MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini) 10.8% 8.8% 10.8% 22.3% -0.2%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) 9.8% 8.6% 10.4% 14.2% -5.8%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) 13.2% 13.2% 13.2% -0.4% -0.1%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln) 12.1% 12.1% 11.9% 0.3% 1.4%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) 14.4% 11.9% 14.6% 20.8% -1.4%
Honda (Acura, Honda) 7.0% 7.3% 6.8% -4.1% 2.2%
Hyundai 12.7% 14.1% 12.6% -10.0% 0.7%
Kia 17.0% 15.3% 17.0% 10.7% -0.1%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) 13.5% 15.0% 13.3% -9.7% 1.7%
Subaru 5.4% 3.5% 5.3% 55.4% 1.5%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) 7.2% 8.6% 7.0% -16.2% 3.4%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) 10.7% 8.8% 11.1% 21.5% -3.3%
Industry 11.4% 11.0% 11.3% 3.9% 0.6%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company's operations.)