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ALG anticipates Automaker Revenue to hit $46 Billion in July

Average transaction prices expected to rise 2.1 percent

SANTA MONICA, Calif., (August 1, 2018) - ALG, the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach $46 billion for the month of July, down 0.2 percent from a year ago.

ALG expects a loss of $101 million in revenue for automakers partially driven by one more selling day in July 2017. Additionally, incentive spending is projected to increase 3.2 percent year over year.

"The ATP year-over-year growth rate at the industry level remains resilient while incentive spending in dollar terms is inching up by just over $100 versus a year ago in a sturdy sales environment," said Oliver Strauss, ALG's Chief Economist. "As a percentage of ATP, incentive spending is barely growing year-over-year showing that some Automakers are slightly decelerating their incentive spend ratio. For example, Toyota is anticipated to pull back incentive spending as a percentage of ATP by 20% versus a year ago."

ALG estimates ATP for a new light vehicle was $33,022 in July, up 2.1 percent from a year ago. Average incentive spending per unit grew by $116 to $3,754. The ratio of incentive spending to ATP is expected to be 11.4 percent, up from 11.3 percent a year ago.

Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer July 2018 Forecast July 2017 June 2018 YOY MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini) $51,863 $51,026 $51,318 1.6% 1.1%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) $56,024 $56,048 $57,347 0.0% -2.3%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) $34,537 $33,434 $34,570 3.3% -0.1%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln) $36,538 $35,164 $36,217 3.9% 0.9%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) $36,300 $37,184 $36,543 -2.4% -0.7%
Honda (Acura, Honda) $28,064 $27,244 $27,871 3.0% 0.7%
Hyundai $22,122 $22,771 $22,144 -2.9% -0.1%
Kia $22,477 $22,171 $22,513 1.4% -0.2%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) $27,190 $27,311 $27,157 -0.4% 0.1%
Subaru $28,605 $27,723 $27,874 3.2% 2.6%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) $31,505 $30,600 $31,655 3.0% -0.5%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) $35,321 $34,443 $35,298 2.5% 0.1%
Industry $33,022 $32,329 $32,966 2.1% 0.2%

Incentive per Unit Spending

Manufacturer July 2018 Forecast July 2017 June 2018 YOY MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini) $5,536 $4,831 $5,597 14.6% -1.1%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) $6,056 $4,922 $6,464 23.0% -6.3%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) $4,500 $4,479 $4,501 0.5% 0.0%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln) $4,494 $4,387 $4,446 2.4% 1.1%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) $5,109 $4,304 $5,196 18.7% -1.7%
Honda (Acura, Honda) $1,917 $2,046 $1,833 -6.3% 4.6%
Hyundai $2,860 $2,943 $2,899 -2.8% -1.3%
Kia $3,919 $3,865 $3,928 1.4% -0.2%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) $4,199 $4,530 $4,041 -7.3% 3.9%
Subaru $1,583 $1,099 $1,505 44.0% 5.2%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) $2,346 $2,861 $2,266 -18.0% 3.5%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) $3,845 $3,567 $3,954 7.8% -2.8%
Industry $3,754 $3,638 $3,787 3.2% -0.9%

Incentive Spending as a Percentage of ATP

Manufacturer July 2018 Forecast July 2017 Jun 2018 YOY MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini) 10.7% 9.5% 10.9% 12.7% -2.1%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) 10.8% 8.8% 11.3% 23.1% -4.1%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) 13.0% 13.4% 13.0% -2.7% 0.1%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln) 12.3% 12.5% 12.3% -1.4% 0.2%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) 14.1% 11.6% 14.2% 21.6% -1.0%
Honda (Acura, Honda) 6.8% 7.5% 6.6% -9.1% 3.9%
Hyundai 12.9% 12.9% 13.1% 0.0% -1.2%
Kia 17.4% 17.4% 17.4% 0.0% -0.1%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) 15.4% 16.6% 14.9% -6.9% 3.8%
Subaru 5.5% 4.0% 5.4% 39.6% 2.5%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) 7.4% 9.3% 7.2% -20.4% 4.0%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) 10.9% 10.4% 11.2% 5.1% -2.8%
Industry 11.4% 11.3% 11.5% 1.0% -1.0%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company's operations.)