ALG finds Automakers Poised to Reach $45 Billion in Revenue in April
Average transaction prices likely to rise 2.7 percent
SANTA MONICA, Calif., (May 1, 2018) - ALG, the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach $45 billion for the month of April, down 3.8 percent from a year ago with currently 24 selling days compared to 26 in April 2017.
ALG expects a loss of $1.7 billion in revenue for automakers versus 2017. Additionally, incentive spending is projected to increase 8.5 percent year over year and decrease 1.6 percent month over month.
"Cooling incentives on a month over month basis and the continued rise in Average Transaction Prices are putting the auto industry on track for another year of solid performance metrics," said Eric Lyman, ALG's chief industry analyst. "Automakers are becoming increasingly dependent on light trucks, as evidenced by Ford's recent announcement to pull all but two passenger cars from their lineup, which bolsters revenue and ATPs across the industry. Additionally, the impact of higher interest rates and economic volatility have not negatively impacted robust ATPs."
ALG estimates ATP for a new light vehicle was $33,515 in April, up 2.7 percent from a year ago. Average incentive spending per unit grew by $293 to $3,736. The ratio of incentive spending to ATP is expected to be 11.1 percent, up from 10.5 percent from a year ago.
Average Transaction Price (ATP)
| Manufacturer | Apr. 2018 Forecast | Apr. 2017 | Mar. 2018 | YOY | MOM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMW (BMW, Mini) | $52,576 | $52,103 | $52,147 | 0.9% | 0.8% |
| Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) | $61,650 | $61,679 | $61,582 | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) | $34,281 | $32,931 | $33,957 | 4.1% | 1.0% |
| Ford (Ford, Lincoln) | $37,032 | $35,751 | $37,149 | 3.6% | -0.3% |
| GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) | $36,254 | $36,571 | $34,976 | -0.9% | 3.7% |
| Honda (Acura, Honda) | $27,745 | $27,182 | $27,857 | 2.1% | -0.4% |
| Hyundai | $22,442 | $22,545 | $22,571 | -0.5% | -0.6% |
| Kia | $22,931 | $22,699 | $22,999 | 1.0% | -0.3% |
| Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) | $27,256 | $27,359 | $27,634 | -0.4% | -1.4% |
| Subaru | $27,814 | $27,764 | $27,921 | 0.2% | -0.4% |
| Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) | $32,107 | $31,064 | $32,119 | 3.4% | 0.0% |
| Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) | $36,570 | $34,187 | $35,888 | 7.0% | 1.9% |
| Industry | $33,515 | $32,638 | $33,207 | 2.7% | 0.9% |
Incentive per Unit Spending
| Manufacturer | Apr. 2018 Forecast | Apr. 2017 | Mar. 2018 | YOY | MOM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMW (BMW, Mini) | $5,484 | $4,424 | $5,595 | 23.9% | -2.0% |
| Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) | $4,691 | $4,557 | $4,775 | 2.9% | -1.8% |
| FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) | $4,685 | $4,359 | $4,579 | 7.5% | 2.3% |
| Ford (Ford, Lincoln) | $4,183 | $4,114 | $4,167 | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) | $5,489 | $4,238 | $5,667 | 29.5% | -3.1% |
| Honda (Acura, Honda) | $1,652 | $1,809 | $1,556 | -8.7% | 6.1% |
| Hyundai | $2,961 | $3,135 | $2,875 | -5.5% | 3.0% |
| Kia | $3,894 | $3,247 | $3,858 | 19.9% | 0.9% |
| Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) | $3,788 | $3,903 | $3,772 | -2.9% | 0.4% |
| Subaru | $1,172 | $957 | $1,199 | 22.4% | -2.3% |
| Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) | $2,291 | $2,346 | $2,347 | -2.4% | -2.4% |
| Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) | $3,537 | $4,008 | $3,618 | -11.7% | -2.2% |
| Industry | $3,736 | $3,443 | $3,795 | 8.5% | -1.6% |
Incentive Spending as a Percentage of ATP
| Manufacturer | Apr. 2018 Forecast | Apr. 2017 | Mar. 2018 | YOY | MOM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMW (BMW, Mini) | 10.4% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 22.8% | -2.8% |
| Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 3.0% | -1.9% |
| FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) | 13.7% | 13.2% | 13.5% | 3.2% | 1.4% |
| Ford (Ford, Lincoln) | 11.3% | 11.5% | 11.2% | -1.8% | 0.7% |
| GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) | 15.1% | 11.6% | 16.2% | 30.7% | -6.5% |
| Honda (Acura, Honda) | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.6% | -10.5% | 6.6% |
| Hyundai | 13.2% | 13.9% | 12.7% | -5.1% | 3.6% |
| Kia | 17.0% | 14.3% | 16.8% | 18.7% | 1.2% |
| Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) | 13.9% | 14.3% | 13.7% | -2.6% | 1.8% |
| Subaru | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 22.2% | -1.9% |
| Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.3% | -5.5% | -2.3% |
| Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) | 9.7% | 11.7% | 10.1% | -17.5% | -4.1% |
| Industry | 11.1% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 5.7% | -2.5% |
(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company's operations.)