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ALG finds Automakers Poised to Reach $53 Billion in Revenue in March

Average transaction prices likely to rise 1.0 percent

SANTA MONICA, Calif., (April 3, 2018) - ALG, the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach $53 billion for the month of March, up 3.6 percent from a year ago.

ALG expects a gain of $1.8 billion in revenue for automakers versus 2017. Additionally, incentive spending is projected to increase 8.0 percent year over year and 0.6 percent month over month.

"The combination of harsh weather, stock market volatility and the Easter holiday weekend falling on the last weekend of the month stalled the usual uptick in Spring sales and led to a slight decline in year over year sales on a daily sales rate adjusted basis," said Eric Lyman, ALG's chief industry analyst. "Overall movements in incentives and ATPs remain small for March which resulted in a largely consistent level compared to last month."

ALG estimates ATP for a new light vehicle was $33,095 in March, up 1.0 percent from a year ago. Average incentive spending per unit grew by $278 to $3,750. The ratio of incentive spending to ATP is expected to be 11.3 percent, up 6.9 percent from a year ago.

Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer Mar. 2018 Forecast Mar. 2017 Feb. 2018 YOY MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini) $52,210 $51,020 $52,224 2.3% 0.0%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) $60,879 $59,437 $61,234 2.4% -0.6%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) $34,240 $33,079 $34,213 3.5% 0.1%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln) $37,197 $36,014 $37,030 3.3% 0.4%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) $34,912 $36,277 $36,157 -3.8% -3.4%
Honda (Acura, Honda) $27,784 $27,392 $27,976 1.4% -0.7%
Hyundai $22,581 $22,847 $22,801 -1.2% -1.0%
Kia $23,033 $22,743 $23,106 1.3% -0.3%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) $27,438 $27,565 $27,718 -0.5% -1.0%
Subaru $27,877 $27,872 $27,904 0.0% -0.1%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) $32,085 $31,562 $31,963 1.7% 0.4%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) $35,574 $33,677 $35,406 5.6% 0.5%
Industry $33,095 $32,754 $33,431 1.0% -1.0%

Incentive per Unit Spending

Manufacturer Mar. 2018 Forecast Mar. 2017 Feb. 2018 YOY MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini) $5,324 $4,500 $5,318 18.3% 0.1%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) $4,997 $4,415 $5,230 13.2% -4.5%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) $4,424 $4,251 $4,334 4.1% 2.1%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln) $4,150 $4,093 $4,182 1.4% -0.8%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) $5,082 $4,526 $5,193 12.3% -2.1%
Honda (Acura, Honda) $1,884 $2,159 $1,762 -12.7% 6.9%
Hyundai $2,760 $2,172 $2,751 27.1% 0.3%
Kia $3,886 $3,383 $3,851 14.9% 0.9%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) $4,206 $3,976 $4,104 5.8% 2.5%
Subaru $1,390 $896 $1,351 55.1% 2.9%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) $2,510 $2,154 $2,585 16.5% -2.9%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) $3,681 $3,474 $3,698 5.9% -0.5%
Industry $3,750 $3,472 $3,727 8.0% 0.6%

Incentive Spending as a Percentage of ATP

Manufacturer Mar. 2018 Forecast Mar. 2017 Feb. 2018 YOY MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini) 10.2% 8.8% 10.2% 15.6% 0.1%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) 8.2% 7.4% 8.5% 10.5% -3.9%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) 12.9% 12.9% 12.7% 0.5% 2.0%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln) 11.2% 11.4% 11.3% -1.8% -1.2%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) 14.6% 12.5% 14.4% 16.7% 1.4%
Honda (Acura, Honda) 6.8% 7.9% 6.3% -14.0% 7.7%
Hyundai 12.2% 9.5% 12.1% 28.6% 1.3%
Kia 16.9% 14.9% 16.7% 13.5% 1.2%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) 15.3% 14.4% 14.8% 6.3% 3.5%
Subaru 5.0% 3.2% 4.8% 55.1% 3.0%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) 7.8% 6.8% 8.1% 14.6% -3.3%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) 10.3% 10.3% 10.4% 0.3% -0.9%
Industry 11.3% 10.6% 11.1% 6.9% 1.6%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company's operations.)