Newsroom

TrueCar’s ALG Forecasts New Car Auto Sales to Rise in August Bolstered by Labor Day Weekend

SANTA MONICA, Calif., (August 28, 2019) – TrueCar, Inc.’s (NASDAQ: TRUE) data and analytics subsidiary, ALG, projects total new vehicle sales will reach 1,602,276 units in August, up 4.2% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days. For 2019, August sales include the entirety of Labor Day Weekend sales, while August 2018 only included up to the Friday prior to Labor Day Weekend, giving August 2019 a sales advantage. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 16.6 million units. Excluding fleet sales, ALG expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,402,687 units, an increase of 3.1% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

“Despite heavy chatter and speculation about the trade war and the future of the economy that’s stoking uncertainty, the fundamentals including employment and wages are performing well and having a positive impact on auto sales,” said Oliver Strauss, Chief Economist for ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar.

  • BMW stood out this month for sales growth, expected to be up 16.8% on total vehicle sales and 18.1% on retail sales year-over-year. Trends on the TrueCar platform indicate strong performance from their SUVs including the all-new X7, which has quickly risen to be the number two best-selling model in the premium Fullsize Utility segment since launching earlier this year.
  • Tesla’s sales ascent is expected to continue, up 12.5% year-over-year, however growth softens compared to previous months as Model 3 sales ramped up significantly starting in August 2018.
  • Automaker average incentive spend should reach $3,825, up 1.2% or $45 dollars year-over-year, and down 2.2% or $85 from July 2019. The most notable declines in incentive spend are expected from Kia, down 12.7%, Hyundai, down 9% and Ford, down 6.9%. Meanwhile Honda is expected to raise incentives by 15.8%, FCA, up 9%, and GM, up 8.8%.
  • Average transaction price (ATP) should continue to rise, up 2.1% or $702 year-over-year.
  • Incentives as a percentage of average transaction price are expected to be 11.2%, down slightly at 0.9% from a year ago and down 1.9% from July 2019.
  • Hyundai, Kia, Volkswagen, Mercedes, and BMW all stood out this month in ALG’s Retail Health Index (RHI) brand strength metric. This was largely driven by new, redesigned, or strong performing SUV product including the Hyundai Palisade, Kia Telluride, Volkswagen’s Atlas and Tiguan, Mercedes’ GLE and BMW’s all-new X7.
  • TrueCar and ALG also assessed brand retention performance through the replacement vehicle indicated via TrueCar’s consumer trade experience.
    • RAM had the highest indicated brand retention at 44%. This is up significantly from 36% last year which ranked them 10th.
    • Honda ranked 2nd at 41% indicated brand retention which was on par with last year.
    • Subaru ranked 3rd at 40%, up from 9th last year.
    • Lexus and Chevrolet ranked 4th and 5th respectively.
    • The average indicated retention across all brands was 32%.
  • Used vehicle sales for August are expected to reach 3,350,362 down 0.2% year-over-year and flat from July 2019.

“ALG’s Retail Health Index is revealing some interesting trends across the industry,” said Eric Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst for ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar. “Luxury brands are showing an increasing reliance on incentives to maintain sales, brands with fresh Midsize Utility products are leading Retail Health Index performance in both mainstream and luxury sectors, and elevated incentive spending in the Fullsize Pickup segment is negatively impacting Retail Health Index scores for truck-heavy domestic brands.”

Retail Health Index (Forecast)

RHI measures the changes in retail market share relative to changes in incentive spending and transaction price to gauge whether OEMs are “buying” retail share through increased incentives, or whether share increases are largely demand-driven. An OEM with a positive RHI score is demonstrating a healthy balance of incentive spend relative to market share, either by holding incentive spending flat and increasing share or by increasing incentives with a higher positive increase in retail share.

Top 12 Manufacturers

Aug 2019 Forecast YOY Change MOM Change
BMW 0.9% 0.2%
Daimler 1.9% -0.7%
FCA -0.3% -0.5%
Ford -0.3% -0.2%
GM 0.6% 0.1%
Honda -0.7% -0.1%
Hyundai 3.1% 0.5%
Kia 4.0% 0.3%
Nissan -0.3% -0.1%
Subaru 0.7% 0.1%
Toyota -0.4% 0.0%
Volkswagen Group 1.1% -0.6%

Luxury

Aug 2019 Forecast YOY Change MOM Change
Acura -1.3% 0.1%
Alfa Romeo 0.2% 0.3%
Audi -1.2% -0.6%
BMW 1.1% 0.2%
Cadillac -0.4% 0.0%
Genesis -6.3% 0.2%
Infiniti -4.7% -0.6%
Jaguar -0.3% 0.4%
Land Rover -2.0% -0.3%
Lexus -1.0% 0.5%
Lincoln -0.6% -0.7%
Maserati -1.3% 0.2%
Mercedes-Benz 1.9% -0.7%
Porsche 0.8% -0.4%
Volvo -1.1% -0.4%

Mainstream

Aug 2019 Forecast YOY Change MOM Change
Buick 1.1% 0.4%
Chevrolet 1.2% 0.1%
Chrysler 0.5% -0.6%
Dodge 1.8% -0.4%
Fiat 1.8% -1.2%
Ford -0.3% -0.1%
GMC -1.0% 0.2%
Honda -0.7% -0.1%
Hyundai 3.2% 0.5%
Jeep 0.2% -0.7%
Kia 4.0% 0.3%
Mazda 1.9% -0.3%
MINI -0.6% 0.2%
Mitsubishi 1.7% -0.8%
Nissan 0.2% -0.1%
Ram -1.5% -0.1%
Smart -29.7% 1.5%
Subaru 0.7% 0.1%
Toyota -0.3% 0.0%
Volkswagen 2.6% -0.6%

Total Unit Sales

Manufacturer Aug 2019 Forecast Aug 2018 Actual Jul 2019 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) MoM % Change MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 33,570 27,719 25,968 21.1% 16.8% 29.3% 15.4%
Daimler 27,883 24,192 27,546 15.3% 11.1% 1.2% -9.6%
FCA 209,155 193,718 168,550 8.0% 4.1% 24.1% 10.8%
Ford 209,586 217,700 192,720 -3.7% -7.2% 8.8% -2.9%
GM 280,567 238,574 236,509 17.6% 13.4% 18.6% 5.9%
Honda 165,617 147,903 141,305 12.0% 8.0% 17.2% 4.6%
Hyundai 66,180 57,542 58,949 15.0% 10.9% 12.3% 0.2%
Kia 59,489 53,864 53,405 10.4% 6.5% 11.4% -0.5%
Nissan 118,990 112,376 98,880 5.9% 2.1% 20.3% 7.4%
Subaru 71,558 64,088 64,106 11.7% 7.7% 11.6% -0.3%
Tesla 11,670 10,000 12,800 16.7% 12.5% -8.8% -18.6%
Toyota 232,440 223,055 209,204 4.2% 0.5% 11.1% -0.8%
Volkswagen Group 60,019 57,505 55,882 4.4% 0.6% 7.4% -4.1%
Industry 1,602,276 1,482,268 1,395,816 8.1% 4.2% 14.8% 2.5%

Retail Unit Sales

Manufacturer Aug 2019 Forecast Aug 2018 Actual Jul 2019 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) MoM % Change MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 30,150 24,620 23,906 22.5% 18.1% 26.1% 12.6%
Daimler 26,935 24,066 26,035 11.9% 7.9% 3.5% -7.6%
FCA 169,057 166,547 142,246 1.5% -2.1% 18.8% 6.1%
Ford 167,574 167,249 146,073 0.2% -3.4% 14.7% 2.4%
GM 227,698 190,259 194,804 19.7% 15.4% 16.9% 4.4%
Honda 162,617 147,229 139,307 10.5% 6.5% 16.7% 4.2%
Hyundai 59,321 51,959 52,063 14.2% 10.1% 13.9% 1.7%
Kia 51,798 45,784 46,462 13.1% 9.1% 11.5% -0.5%
Nissan 98,499 101,028 80,385 -2.5% -6.0% 22.5% 9.4%
Subaru 68,443 60,884 59,498 12.4% 8.4% 15.0% 2.7%
Tesla 11,670 10,000 12,800 16.7% 12.5% -8.8% -18.6%
Toyota 219,914 214,032 192,370 2.7% -0.9% 14.3% 2.1%
Volkswagen Group 55,894 55,379 51,722 0.9% -2.7% 8.1% -3.5%
Industry 1,402,687 1,312,130 1,214,335 6.9% 3.1% 15.5% 3.1%

Fleet Unit Sales

Manufacturer Aug 2019 Forecast Aug 2018 Actual Jul 2019 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) MoM % Change MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 3,420 3,099 2,062 10.4% 6.4% 65.8% 48.1%
Daimler 948 126 1,511 650.7% 623.8% -37.3% -44.0%
FCA 40,098 27,171 26,304 47.6% 42.3% 52.4% 36.1%
Ford 42,012 50,451 46,647 -16.7% -19.7% -9.9% -19.6%
GM 52,869 48,315 41,705 9.4% 5.5% 26.8% 13.2%
Honda 3,000 674 1,998 345.3% 329.4% 50.2% 34.1%
Hyundai 6,859 5,583 6,886 22.9% 18.5% -0.4% -11.1%
Kia 7,690 8,080 6,943 -4.8% -8.2% 10.8% -1.1%
Nissan 20,491 11,348 18,495 80.6% 74.1% 10.8% -1.1%
Subaru 3,115 3,204 4,608 -2.8% -6.3% -32.4% -39.6%
Tesla - - - - - - -
Toyota 12,526 9,023 16,834 38.8% 33.9% -25.6% -33.6%
Volkswagen Group 4,125 2,126 4,160 94.1% 87.1% -0.8% -11.5%
Industry 199,589 170,138 181,481 17.3% 13.1% 10.0% -1.8%

Fleet Penetration

Manufacturer Aug 2019 Forecast Aug 2018 Actual Jul 2019 Actual YoY % Change MoM % Change
BMW 10.2% 11.2% 7.9% -8.9% 28.3%
Daimler 3.4% 0.5% 5.5% 551.3% -38.0%
FCA 19.2% 14.0% 15.6% 36.7% 22.8%
Ford 20.0% 23.2% 24.2% -13.5% -17.2%
GM 18.8% 20.3% 17.6% -7.0% 6.9%
Honda 1.8% 0.5% 1.4% 297.7% 28.1%
Hyundai 10.4% 9.7% 11.7% 6.8% -11.3%
Kia 12.9% 15.0% 13.0% -13.8% -0.6%
Nissan 17.2% 10.1% 18.7% 70.5% -7.9%
Subaru 4.4% 5.0% 7.2% -12.9% -39.4%
Tesla - - - - -
Toyota 5.4% 4.0% 8.0% 33.2% -33.0%
Volkswagen Group 6.9% 3.7% 7.4% 85.9% -7.7%
Industry 12.5% 11.5% 13.0% 8.5% -4.2%

Total Market Share

Manufacturer Aug 2019 Forecast Aug 2018 Actual MoM % Change
BMW 2.1% 1.9% 1.9%
Daimler 1.7% 1.6% 2.0%
FCA 13.1% 13.1% 12.1%
Ford 13.1% 14.7% 13.8%
GM 17.5% 16.1% 16.9%
Honda 10.3% 10.0% 10.1%
Hyundai 4.1% 3.9% 4.2%
Kia 3.7% 3.6% 3.8%
Nissan 7.4% 7.6% 7.1%
Subaru 4.5% 4.3% 4.6%
Tesla 0.7% 0.7% 0.9%
Toyota 14.5% 15.0% 15.0%
Volkswagen Group 3.7% 3.9% 4.0%

Retail Market Share

Manufacturer Aug 2019 Forecast Aug 2018 Actual MoM % Change
BMW 2.1% 1.9% 2.0%
Daimler 1.9% 1.8% 2.1%
FCA 12.1% 12.7% 11.7%
Ford 11.9% 12.7% 12.0%
GM 16.2% 14.5% 16.0%
Honda 11.6% 11.2% 11.5%
Hyundai 4.2% 4.0% 4.3%
Kia 3.7% 3.5% 3.8%
Nissan 7.0% 7.7% 6.6%
Subaru 4.9% 4.6% 4.9%
Tesla 0.8% 0.8% 1.1%
Toyota 15.7% 16.3% 15.8%
Volkswagen Group 4.0% 4.2% 4.3%

Average transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer Aug 2019 Forecast Aug 2018 Actual Jul 2019 Actual YOY MOM
BMW $53,337 $51,500 $53,963 3.6% -1.2%
Daimler $57,216 $55,668 $57,425 2.8% -0.4%
FCA $36,505 $34,766 $36,097 5.0% 1.1%
Ford $38,165 $37,501 $38,554 1.8% -1.0%
GM $38,135 $37,410 $37,503 1.9% 1.7%
Honda $28,102 $28,765 $28,313 -2.3% -0.7%
Hyundai $24,644 $22,149 $24,558 11.3% 0.3%
Kia $24,057 $22,676 $23,591 6.1% 2.0%
Nissan $26,751 $27,000 $27,139 -0.9% -1.4%
Subaru $29,113 $28,632 $29,151 1.7% -0.1%
Toyota $32,322 $32,041 $32,605 0.9% -0.9%
Volkswagen Group $40,059 $39,828 $42,166 0.6% -5.0%
Industry $34,278 $33,577 $34,362 2.1% -0.2%

Incentive Spending

Manufacturer Aug 2019 Forecast Aug 2018 Actual Jul 2019 Actual YOY MOM
BMW $5,816 $5,428 $5,624 7.2% 3.4%
Daimler $5,589 $5,855 $5,146 -4.5% 8.6%
FCA $5,043 $4,625 $5,080 9.0% -0.7%
Ford $4,415 $4,741 $4,814 -6.9% -8.3%
GM $5,133 $4,720 $5,272 8.8% -2.6%
Honda $2,236 $1,931 $2,140 15.8% 4.5%
Hyundai $2,693 $2,960 $2,739 -9.0% -1.7%
Kia $3,461 $3,966 $3,534 -12.7% -2.1%
Nissan $4,167 $4,381 $4,368 -4.9% -4.6%
Subaru $1,560 $1,507 $1,579 3.5% -1.2%
Toyota $2,641 $2,590 $2,697 2.0% -2.1%
Volkswagen Group $3,844 $3,745 $3,648 2.7% 5.4%
Industry $3,825 $3,780 $3,910 1.2% -2.2%

Incentives as % of ATP

Manufacturer Aug 2019 Forecast Aug 2018 Actual Jul 2019 Actual YOY MOM
BMW 10.9% 10.5% 10.4% 3.5% 4.6%
Daimler 9.8% 10.5% 9.0% -7.1% 9.0%
FCA 13.8% 13.3% 14.1% 3.8% -1.9%
Ford 11.6% 12.6% 12.5% -8.5% -7.3%
GM 13.5% 12.6% 14.1% 6.7% -4.3%
Honda 8.0% 6.7% 7.6% 18.6% 5.3%
Hyundai 10.9% 13.4% 11.2% -18.2% -2.0%
Kia 14.4% 17.5% 15.0% -17.7% -4.0%
Nissan 15.6% 16.2% 16.1% -4.0% -3.2%
Subaru 5.4% 5.3% 5.4% 1.8% -1.1%
Toyota 8.2% 8.1% 8.3% 1.1% -1.2%
Volkswagen Group 9.6% 9.4% 8.7% 2.1% 10.9%
Industry 11.2% 11.3% 11.4% -0.9% -1.9%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company's operations.)

About TrueCar

TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) is a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars and enables consumers to engage with TrueCar Certified Dealers who are committed to providing a superior purchase experience. TrueCar operates its own branded site and its nationwide network of more than 16,000 Certified Dealers also powers car-buying programs for some of the largest U.S. membership and service organizations, including USAA, AARP, American Express, AAA and Sam's Club. Over half of all new car buyers engage with the TrueCar network during their purchasing process. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in San Francisco and Austin, Texas. For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) Email: pressinquiries@truecar.com

About ALG

Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 50 years and in Canada since 1981.

TrueCar and ALG PR Contact: Shadee Malekafzali shadee@truecar.com