Newsroom

TrueCar’s ALG Forecasts December 2019 New Car Sales to Finish the Year Up

SANTA MONICA, Calif., (December 23, 2019) – TrueCar, Inc.’s (NASDAQ: TRUE) data and analytics subsidiary, ALG, projects total new vehicle sales will reach 1,567,254 units in December 2019, up 0.2% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 17.2 million units. Excluding fleet sales, ALG expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,322,551 units, a decrease of 2% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

"We expect 2019 sales to come in right where we forecast at the beginning of the year," said Oliver Strauss, Chief Economist at ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar. "For December, we're seeing an uptick in consumer sentiment and some softening in recession uncertainty which all bode well for the industry. Higher incentives this month are helping lift total auto sales versus a year ago."

Additional Insights: (Forecasted by ALG)

Month

  • Among mainstream brands, Ford stood out for total sales, up 5.1% year-over-year. This is likely due to its slate of new (Explorer and Escape) and young (Expedition) SUV lineup, including some pent-up demand for the Explorer due to production hiccups at launch.
  • Toyota is showing a gain in retail market share this month off the success of its RAV4, including the new hybrid trim.
  • For the luxury brands, BMW and Mercedes Benz are battling it out in December to capture the annual luxury sales crown. BMW is hitting the gas on incentives and fleet sales, in an attempt to overtake Daimler.
    • BMW is expected to be up 6.2% year-over-year in December with incentives up 13.2%, meanwhile Daimler is expected to be up 4.7%, while holding incentives flat compared with last year.
    • The other legacy battles have mostly been settled; with the Toyota RAV4 expected to beat the Honda CR-V by over 50,000 units, and the Toyota Camry expected to top the Honda Accord by over 60,000 units by year’s end.
  • Tesla is forecast to be down 8% in December (and down for the second month in a row) compared with last year, as it continues to face difficult compares from last year’s surge in buyers hoping to secure the last of their federal EV credits.
  • Nissan continues to struggle, and is forecast to be down 21% in total unit sales compared to a year ago.
  • Meanwhile GM is still rebounding from its 40-day strike, that was resolved at the end of October. It’s expected to be down 1.6% on total units, with the biggest drop in incentive spend by any manufacturer at 4.7%, and a reduction in fleet compared with last year as it replenishes supply.
  • Average automaker incentive spend is expected to reach $3,944 in December, up 3.6% or $138 dollars year-over-year.
    • The most notable year-over-year increases in incentive spend are expected from Toyota, BMW and Volkswagen, up 13.9%, 13.2% and 11% respectively.
  • Used vehicle sales for December 2019 are expected to reach 3,058,423, up 9% from a year ago and down 1% from November 2019.

Quarter:

  • Total unit sales for the quarter should reach 4,324,609, down 2.3% compared with the same period last year adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Used vehicle sales for the fourth quarter are expected to reach 9,514,373 up 6.1% year-over-year and down 8.5% from Q3 2019.
    • TrueCar and ALG assessed brand retention performance for the fourth quarter through the replacement vehicle indicated via TrueCar Trade, TrueCar’s consumer trade experience.
      • The top five brands with the highest indicated brand retention this quarter are Ram, Subaru, Toyota, Honda and Chevrolet.
      • Ram showed the biggest increase in indicated brand retention this quarter according to TrueCar Trade data, moving from 43% in Q3 to 48% in Q4.

"December is one of the busiest times of year for auto retail and the best time of year for consumers to buy a car and save off MSRP," said Eric Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst at ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar.

"Over one third of December vehicle transactions typically happen in the last week of the month, and year," added Lyman. "Automakers and dealers will sweeten deals to move remaining inventory off their lots and make room for the 2020 model year vehicles."

December 2019 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by volume: (Adjusted for same selling days as December 2018.)

Total Unit Sales

Manufacturer Dec 2019 Forecast Dec 2018 Actual Nov 2019 Actual YOY % Change YOY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) MOM % Change MOM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 38,036 37,249 34,398 2.1% 6.2% 10.6% 15.0%
Daimler 36,492 36,254 37,263 0.7% 4.7% -2.1% 1.8%
FCA 187,266 196,520 174,324 -4.7% -0.9% 7.4% 11.7%
Ford 221,909 219,632 188,718 1.0% 5.1% 17.6% 22.3%
GM 280,519 296,632 245,108 -5.4% -1.6% 14.4% 19.0%
Honda 155,357 155,115 133,952 0.2% 4.2% 16.0% 20.6%
Hyundai 68,392 65,721 62,768 4.1% 8.2% 9.0% 13.3%
Kia 49,277 47,428 50,504 3.9% 8.1% -2.4% 1.5%
Nissan 112,843 148,720 92,947 -24.1% -21.1% 21.4% 26.3%
Subaru 64,743 64,541 56,893 0.3% 4.3% 13.8% 18.3%
Tesla 17,789 20,100 16,450 -11.5% -8.0% 8.1% 12.5%
Toyota 216,842 220,910 207,857 -1.8% 2.1% 4.3% 8.5%
Volkswagen Group 58,591 59,443 56,575 -1.4% 2.5% 3.6% 7.7%
Industry 1,567,254 1,627,481 1,413,514 -3.7% 0.2% 10.9% 15.3%

Retail Unit Sales

Manufacturer Dec 2019 Forecast Dec 2018 Actual Nov 2019 Actual YOY % Change YOY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) MOM % Change MOM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 35,401 36,041 31,649 -1.8% 2.2% 11.9% 16.3%
Daimler 34,392 34,248 36,134 0.4% 4.4% -4.8% -1.0%
FCA 149,263 158,298 134,847 -5.7% -1.9% 10.7% 15.1%
Ford 162,031 166,855 147,755 -2.9% 1.0% 9.7% 14.0%
GM 220,032 249,709 169,522 -11.9% -8.4% 29.8% 35.0%
Honda 152,226 154,429 133,049 -1.4% 2.5% 14.4% 19.0%
Hyundai 57,215 57,185 57,397 0.1% 4.1% -0.3% 3.7%
Kia 41,121 42,423 45,186 -3.1% 0.8% -9.0% -5.4%
Nissan 77,805 107,899 77,448 -27.9% -25.0% 0.5% 4.5%
Subaru 62,457 62,464 55,019 0.0% 4.0% 13.5% 18.1%
Tesla 17,789 20,100 16,450 -11.5% -8.0% 8.1% 12.5%
Toyota 200,794 202,767 199,851 -1.0% 3.0% 0.5% 4.5%
Volkswagen Group 55,393 56,588 54,029 -2.1% 1.8% 2.5% 6.6%
Industry 1,322,551 1,403,824 1,212,996 -5.8% -2.0% 9.0% 13.4%

Fleet Unit Sales

Manufacturer Dec 2019 Forecast Dec 2018 Actual Nov 2019 Actual YOY % Change YOY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) MOM % Change MOM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 2,635 1,208 2,749 118.2% 126.9% -4.1% -0.3%
Daimler 2,100 2,006 1,129 4.7% 8.9% 86.0% 93.4%
FCA 38,003 38,222 39,477 -0.6% 3.4% -3.7% 0.1%
Ford 59,878 52,777 40,963 13.5% 18.0% 46.2% 52.0%
GM 60,487 46,923 75,586 28.9% 34.1% -20.0% -16.8%
Honda 3,131 686 903 356.7% 375.0% 246.9% 260.8%
Hyundai 11,177 8,536 5,371 30.9% 36.2% 108.1% 116.4%
Kia 8,156 5,005 5,318 63.0% 69.5% 53.4% 59.5%
Nissan 35,038 40,821 15,499 -14.2% -10.7% 126.1% 135.1%
Subaru 2,286 2,077 1,874 10.1% 14.5% 22.0% 26.9%
Tesla - - -
Toyota 16,048 18,143 8,006 -11.5% -8.0% 100.4% 108.5%
Volkswagen Group 3,198 2,855 2,546 12.0% 16.5% 25.6% 30.6%
Industry 244,703 223,657 200,518 9.4% 13.8% 22.0% 26.9%

Fleet Penetration

Manufacturer Dec 2019 Forecast Dec 2018 Actual Nov 2019 Actual YOY % Change MOM % Change
BMW 6.9% 3.2% 8.0% 113.7% -13.3%
Daimler 5.8% 5.5% 3.0% 4.0% 89.9%
FCA 20.3% 19.4% 22.6% 4.3% -10.4%
Ford 27.0% 24.0% 21.7% 12.3% 24.3%
GM 21.6% 15.8% 30.8% 36.3% -30.1%
Honda 2.0% 0.4% 0.7% 356.0% 199.1%
Hyundai 16.3% 13.0% 8.6% 25.8% 91.0%
Kia 16.6% 10.6% 10.5% 56.8% 57.2%
Nissan 31.1% 27.4% 16.7% 13.1% 86.2%
Subaru 3.5% 3.2% 3.3% 9.7% 7.2%
Tesla 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Toyota 7.4% 8.2% 3.9% -9.9% 92.1%
Volkswagen Group 5.5% 4.8% 4.5% 13.6% 21.3%
Industry 15.6% 13.7% 14.2% 13.6% 10.1%

Total Market Share

Manufacturer Dec 2019 Forecast Dec 2018 Actual Nov 2019 Actual
BMW 2.4% 2.3% 2.4%
Daimler 2.3% 2.2% 2.6%
FCA 11.9% 12.1% 12.3%
Ford 14.2% 13.5% 13.4%
GM 17.9% 18.2% 17.3%
Honda 9.9% 9.5% 9.5%
Hyundai 4.4% 4.0% 4.4%
Kia 3.1% 2.9% 3.6%
Nissan 7.2% 9.1% 6.6%
Subaru 4.1% 4.0% 4.0%
Tesla 1.1% 1.2% 1.2%
Toyota 13.8% 13.6% 14.7%
Volkswagen Group 3.7% 3.7% 4.0%

Retail Market Share

Manufacturer Dec 2019 Forecast Dec 2018 Actual Nov 2019 Actual
BMW 2.7% 2.6% 2.6%
Daimler 2.6% 2.4% 3.0%
FCA 11.3% 11.3% 11.1%
Ford 12.3% 11.9% 12.2%
GM 16.6% 17.8% 14.0%
Honda 11.5% 11.0% 11.0%
Hyundai 4.3% 4.1% 4.7%
Kia 3.1% 3.0% 3.7%
Nissan 5.9% 7.7% 6.4%
Subaru 4.7% 4.4% 4.5%
Tesla 1.3% 1.4% 1.4%
Toyota 15.2% 14.4% 16.5%
Volkswagen Group 4.2% 4.0% 4.5%

Total Unit Sales, Quarterly

Manufacturer Q4 2019 Q4 2018 Q3 2019 YOY % Change YOY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) QoQ % Change QoQ % Change(Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 100,952 95,726 86,545 5.5% 4.1% 16.6% 13.7%
Daimler 105,885 101,047 89,766 4.8% 3.4% 18.0% 14.9%
FCA 538,710 555,221 565,034 -3.0% -4.2% -4.7% -7.1%
Ford 604,198 606,569 576,006 -0.4% -1.7% 4.9% 2.2%
GM 735,497 784,262 735,651 -6.2% -7.4% 0.0% -2.6%
Honda 420,752 397,831 429,214 5.8% 4.4% -2.0% -4.5%
Hyundai 190,189 176,245 177,930 7.9% 6.5% 6.9% 4.1%
Kia 149,788 137,631 158,754 8.8% 7.4% -5.6% -8.1%
Nissan 309,353 369,195 327,354 -16.2% -17.3% -5.5% -7.9%
Subaru 177,167 176,717 185,804 0.3% -1.0% -4.6% -7.1%
Tesla 48,239 51,700 42,000 -6.7% -7.9% 14.9% 11.9%
Toyota 613,486 602,435 627,194 1.8% 0.5% -2.2% -4.7%
Volkswagen Group 168,233 159,606 166,526 5.4% 4.1% 1.0% -1.6%
Industry 4,324,609 4,368,404 4,318,068 -1.0% -2.3% 0.2% -2.4%

Retail Unit Sales, Quarterly

Manufacturer Q4 2019 Q4 2018 Q3 2019 YOY % Change YOY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) QoQ % Change QoQ % Change(Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 92,893 92,220 73,082 0.7% -0.6% 27.1% 23.8%
Daimler 101,649 94,869 79,032 7.1% 5.8% 28.6% 25.3%
FCA 410,214 421,333 443,624 -2.6% -3.9% -7.5% -9.9%
Ford 451,331 441,997 445,207 2.1% 0.8% 1.4% -1.2%
GM 544,562 588,975 609,205 -7.5% -8.7% -10.6% -12.9%
Honda 415,814 393,206 440,502 5.7% 4.4% -5.6% -8.0%
Hyundai 162,214 147,060 159,130 10.3% 8.9% 1.9% -0.7%
Kia 130,976 118,650 139,687 10.4% 9.0% -6.2% -8.6%
Nissan 240,912 285,037 276,749 -15.5% -16.6% -12.9% -15.2%
Subaru 171,157 171,881 177,175 -0.4% -1.7% -3.4% -5.9%
Tesla 48,239 49,389 42,251 -2.3% -3.6% 14.2% 11.2%
Toyota 581,907 549,850 592,870 5.8% 4.5% -1.8% -4.4%
Volkswagen Group 160,054 151,939 151,751 5.3% 4.0% 5.5% 2.8%
Industry 3,669,435 3,653,445 3,767,621 0.4% -0.9% -2.6% -5.1%

Total Market Share, Quarterly

Manufacturer Q4 2019 Q4 2018 Q3 2019
BMW 2.3% 2.2% 2.0%
Daimler 2.4% 2.3% 2.1%
FCA 12.5% 12.7% 13.1%
Ford 14.0% 13.9% 13.3%
GM 17.0% 18.0% 17.0%
Honda 9.7% 9.1% 9.9%
Hyundai 4.4% 4.0% 4.1%
Kia 3.5% 3.2% 3.7%
Nissan 7.2% 8.5% 7.6%
Subaru 4.1% 4.0% 4.3%
Tesla 1.1% 1.2% 1.0%
Toyota 14.2% 13.8% 14.5%
Volkswagen Group 3.9% 3.7% 3.9%

Retail Market Share, Quarterly

Manufacturer Q4 2019 Q4 2018 Q3 2019
BMW 2.5% 2.5% 1.9%
Daimler 2.8% 2.6% 2.1%
FCA 11.2% 11.5% 11.8%
Ford 12.3% 12.1% 11.8%
GM 14.8% 16.1% 16.2%
Honda 11.3% 10.8% 11.7%
Hyundai 4.4% 4.0% 4.2%
Kia 3.6% 3.2% 3.7%
Nissan 6.6% 7.8% 7.3%
Subaru 4.7% 4.7% 4.7%
Tesla 1.3% 1.4% 1.1%
Toyota 15.9% 15.1% 15.7%
Volkswagen Group 4.4% 4.2% 4.0%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company’s operations.)

About TrueCar TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) is a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars and enables consumers to engage with TrueCar Certified Dealers who are committed to providing a superior purchase experience. TrueCar operates its own branded site and its nationwide network of more than 16,500 Certified Dealers, and also powers car-buying programs for some of the largest U.S. membership and service organizations, including USAA, AARP, American Express, AAA and Sam’s Club. Nearly half of all new car buyers engage with the TrueCar network during their purchasing process. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with an office in Austin, Texas.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) Email: pr@truecar.com

About ALG Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 55 years and in Canada since 1981.

TrueCar and ALG PR Contact: Shadee Malekafzali shadee@truecar.com