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TrueCar’s ALG Forecasts New Car Auto Sales Dip in February Spurred by Weather and Tax Refund, Government Shutdown Uncertainty

Hyundai and Volvo expected to show strong Retail Health Index Performance

SANTA MONICA, Calif., (February 22, 2019) – TrueCar, Inc.'s (NASDAQ: TRUE) data and analytics subsidiary, ALG, projects total new vehicle sales will reach 1,268,141 units in February, down 2.6% from a year ago. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 16.6 million units for the month. Excluding fleet sales, U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks should decrease 2.6% from a year ago to 1,001,149 units, yet up 9.8% from last month.

"The U.S. economy remains robust on many fronts, such as unemployment rate and consumer confidence, keeping vehicle sales at a healthy pace," said Oliver Strauss, Chief Economist for TrueCar’s ALG. "Record snow and rainfall across the country, including the west coast, plus anxieties over tax refund size and the potential for another government shutdown contributed to the year-over-year decline."

Given the overall health of vehicle sales, ALG expects OEMs are pulling back on incentives while maintaining retail market share. Average incentive spending by automakers will reach an estimated $3,653 per vehicle in February down $30 or 0.8% from a year ago, and up 3.0% or $108 from January 2019.

ALG also assessed automaker brand health with its Retail Health Index (RHI). RHI strips away the impact of price cuts to show which OEMs are growing retail share due to increased consumer demand versus which are “buying” share through higher incentives.

"Hyundai and Volvo are validating their ALG Redesign of the Year awards with strong performances expected in the Retail Health Index, driven by the all new Santa Fe and S60 respectively," said Eric Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst for TrueCar’s ALG. "Both brands are in the midst of a product renaissance showcasing stylish designs in new segments, especially utilities, which continue to resonate with new vehicle shoppers."

ALG also evaluates average transaction price (ATP) as an indicator for its Retail Health Index. For February, ALG estimates ATP for new light vehicles was $34,565, up 3.0% from a year ago while incentives as a percentage of ATP was at 10.6% down 3.7% year-over-year.

Retail Health Index (Forecast)

RHI measures the changes in retail market share relative to changes in incentive spending and transaction price to gauge whether OEMs are “buying” retail share through increased incentives, or whether share increases are largely demand-driven. An OEM with a positive RHI score is demonstrating a healthy balance of incentive spend relative to market share, either by holding incentive spending flat and increasing share or by increasing incentives with a higher positive increase in retail share.

RHI, Top 12 Manufacturers

Feb 2019 Forecast YOY Change MOM Change
BMW -0.7% 0.0%
Daimler -4.4% 0.4%
FCA 0.5% -0.5%
Ford 0.2% -0.5%
GM 1.9% -0.3%
Honda -0.8% 0.2%
Hyundai 2.2% -0.1%
Kia 0.3% -0.7%
Nissan 1.5% 0.6%
Subaru 0.9% -0.2%
Toyota 0.8% 0.3%
Volkswagen Group 0.0% 0.4%

RHI, Mainstream

Feb 2019 Forecast YOY Change MOM Change
Buick 0.1% -1.0%
Chevrolet 2.8% -0.1%
Chrysler -1.5% -0.4%
Dodge -2.9% 0.3%
Fiat 4.5% -0.1%
Ford 0.2% -0.5%
GMC 0.3% -0.6%
Honda -1.0% 0.3%
Hyundai 2.2% -0.1%
Jeep -0.3% 0.1%
Kia 0.3% -0.7%
Mazda 1.9% 0.4%
MINI -1.1% 0.5%
Mitsubishi 3.3% 0.5%
Nissan 1.9% 0.7%
Ram 3.5% -1.8%
Smart -30.8% -0.3%
Subaru 0.9% -0.2%
Toyota 0.7% 0.3%
Volkswagen 1.4% 0.4%

RHI, Luxury

Feb 2019 Forecast YOY Change MOM Change
Acura 1.6% -0.3%
Alfa Romeo -3.0% 0.9%
Audi -2.8% 0.6%
BMW -0.6% -0.1%
Cadillac -1.2% -0.7%
Genesis -5.9% -1.0%
Infiniti -1.8% -0.1%
Jaguar -1.2% -0.3%
Land Rover 1.2% 0.3%
Lexus 1.0% 0.3%
Lincoln 1.0% -0.3%
Maserati -1.3% 1.4%
Mercedes-Benz -4.3% 0.4%
Porsche 0.7% 0.0%
Volvo 2.2% -0.3%

Total Unit Sales

Manufacturer Feb 2019 Forecast Feb 2018 Actual Jan 2019 Actual YoY % Change MoM % Change
BMW 25,117 26,673 20,660 -5.8% 21.6%
Daimler 25,675 27,894 23,804 -8.0% 7.9%
FCA 164,528 166,834 136,591 -1.4% 20.5%
Ford 188,215 193,362 171,763 -2.7% 9.6%
GM 211,503 220,740 184,780 -4.2% 14.5%
Honda 119,057 115,557 106,139 3.0% 12.2%
Hyundai 44,456 44,732 40,796 -0.6% 9.0%
Kia 39,373 40,672 37,376 -3.2% 5.3%
Nissan 111,058 129,930 100,741 -14.5% 10.2%
Subaru 48,570 47,249 46,072 2.8% 5.4%
Toyota 175,290 182,195 156,021 -3.8% 12.4%
Volkswagen Group 45,252 46,769 43,162 -3.2% 4.8%
Industry 1,268,141 1,302,128 1,132,911 -2.6% 11.9%

Retail Unit Sales

Manufacturer Feb 2019 Forecast Feb 2018 Actual Jan 2019 Actual YoY % Change MoM % Change
BMW 24,449 26,407 20,245 -7.4% 20.8%
Daimler 24,391 26,927 21,631 -9.4% 12.8%
FCA 120,522 129,233 113,782 -6.7% 5.9%
Ford 116,928 121,049 115,719 -3.4% 1.0%
GM 159,985 168,659 141,228 -5.1% 13.3%
Honda 116,811 114,979 105,493 1.6% 10.7%
Hyundai 34,940 33,037 25,555 5.8% 36.7%
Kia 33,583 35,689 30,384 -5.9% 10.5%
Nissan 71,873 78,951 61,479 -9.0% 16.9%
Subaru 46,049 44,945 43,667 2.5% 5.5%
Toyota 148,542 158,443 137,138 -6.2% 8.3%
Volkswagen Group 42,214 43,522 39,803 -3.0% 6.1%
Industry 1,001,149 1,027,812 911,664 -2.6% 9.8%

Fleet Unit Sales

Manufacturer Feb 2019 Forecast Feb 2018 Actual Jan 2019 Actual YoY % Change MoM % Change
BMW 668 266 415 151.1% 60.8%
Daimler 1,284 967 2,173 32.8% -40.9%
FCA 44,025 37,601 22,809 17.1% 93.0%
Ford 71,287 72,313 56,044 -1.4% 27.2%
GM 51,518 52,081 43,552 -1.1% 18.3%
Honda 2,246 578 646 288.5% 247.9%
Hyundai 9,516 13,058 16,465 -27.1% -42.2%
Kia 5,790 4,983 6,992 16.2% -17.2%
Nissan 39,185 50,979 39,262 -23.1% -0.2%
Subaru 2,521 2,304 2,405 9.4% 4.8%
Toyota 26,748 23,752 18,883 12.6% 41.7%
Volkswagen Group 3,038 3,247 3,359 -6.4% -9.5%
Industry 267,012 274,316 221,247 -2.7% 20.7%

Fleet Penetration

Manufacturer Feb 2019 Forecast Feb 2018 Actual Jan 2019 Actual YoY % Change MoM % Change
BMW 2.7% 1.0% 2.0% 166.7% 32.3%
Daimler 5.0% 3.5% 9.1% 44.3% -45.2%
FCA 26.8% 22.5% 16.7% 18.7% 60.2%
Ford 37.9% 37.4% 32.6% 1.3% 16.1%
GM 24.4% 23.6% 23.6% 3.2% 3.3%
Honda 1.9% 0.5% 0.6% 277.1% 210.1%
Hyundai 21.4% 29.2% 40.4% -26.7% -47.0%
Kia 14.7% 12.3% 18.7% 20.0% -21.4%
Nissan 35.3% 39.2% 39.0% -10.1% -9.5%
Subaru 5.2% 4.9% 5.2% 6.4% -0.6%
Toyota 15.3% 13.0% 12.1% 17.1% 26.1%
Volkswagen Group 6.7% 6.9% 7.8% -3.3% -13.7%
Industry 21.1% 21.1% 19.5% -0.1% 7.8%

Total Market Share

Manufacturer Feb 2019 Forecast Feb 2018 Actual Jan 2019 Actual
BMW 2.0% 2.0% 1.8%
Daimler 2.0% 2.1% 2.1%
FCA 13.0% 12.8% 12.1%
Ford 14.8% 14.8% 15.2%
GM 16.7% 17.0% 16.3%
Honda 9.4% 8.9% 9.4%
Hyundai 3.5% 3.4% 3.6%
Kia 3.1% 3.1% 3.3%
Nissan 8.8% 10.0% 8.9%
Subaru 3.8% 3.6% 4.1%
Toyota 13.8% 14.0% 13.8%
Volkswagen Group 3.6% 3.6% 3.8%

Retail Market Share

Manufacturer Feb 2019 Forecast Feb 2018 Actual Jan 2019 Actual
BMW 2.4% 2.6% 2.2%
Daimler 2.4% 2.6% 2.4%
FCA 12.0% 12.6% 12.5%
Ford 11.7% 11.8% 12.7%
GM 16.0% 16.4% 15.5%
Honda 11.7% 11.2% 11.6%
Hyundai 3.5% 3.2% 2.8%
Kia 3.4% 3.5% 3.3%
Nissan 7.2% 7.7% 6.7%
Subaru 4.6% 4.4% 4.8%
Toyota 14.8% 15.4% 15.0%
Volkswagen Group 4.2% 4.2% 4.4%

Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer Feb-2019 Forecast Feb-18 Jan-19 YOY MOM
BMW 56394 52486 55206 7.4% 2.2%
Mercedes-Benz 65901 61609 62182 7.0% 6.0%
Chrysler Group 35910 34406 35843 4.4% 0.2%
Ford 38482 37230 38781 3.4% -0.8%
GM 37454 36192 36927 3.5% 1.4%
Honda 28576 28082 28336 1.8% 0.8%
Hyundai 23366 22818 23432 2.4% -0.3%
Kia 22560 23163 22746 -2.6% -0.8%
Nissan 27458 27766 28096 -1.1% -2.3%
Subaru 29339 27905 29061 5.1% 1.0%
Toyota 32536 32033 32279 1.6% 0.8%
Volkswagen 38092 35823 37720 6.3% 1.0%
Industry 34565 33552 34318 3.0% 0.7%

Incentive Spending

Manufacturer Feb-2019 Forecast Feb-18 Jan-19 YOY MOM
BMW $5,432 $5,673 $5,204 -4.2% 4.4%
Daimler $6,031 $4,763 $5,842 26.6% 3.2%
FCA $4,524 $4,344 $4,363 4.1% 3.7%
Ford $4,139 $4,069 $4,026 1.7% 2.8%
GM $4,538 $5,058 $4,460 -10.3% 1.8%
Honda $2,420 $1,795 $2,351 34.9% 3.0%
Hyundai $2,659 $2,684 $2,567 -0.9% 3.6%
Kia $3,836 $3,813 $3,710 0.6% 3.4%
Nissan $3,980 $4,160 $3,912 -4.3% 1.7%
Subaru $1,353 $1,220 $1,311 10.9% 3.2%
Toyota $2,464 $2,454 $2,382 0.4% 3.4%
Volkswagen Group $3,727 $3,632 $3,557 2.6% 4.8%
Industry $3,653 $3,683 $3,545 -0.8% 3.0%

Incentive as % of ATP

Manufacturer Feb-2019 Forecast Feb-18 Jan-19 YOY MOM
BMW 9.6% 10.8% 9.4% -10.9% 2.2%
Mercedes-Benz 9.2% 7.7% 9.4% 18.4% -2.6%
Chrysler Group 12.6% 12.6% 12.2% -0.2% 3.5%
Ford 10.8% 10.9% 10.4% -1.6% 3.6%
GM 12.1% 14.0% 12.1% -13.3% 0.3%
Honda 8.5% 6.4% 8.3% 32.5% 2.1%
Hyundai 11.4% 11.8% 11.0% -3.3% 3.9%
Kia 17.0% 16.5% 16.3% 3.3% 4.3%
Nissan 14.5% 15.0% 13.9% -3.3% 4.1%
Subaru 4.6% 4.4% 4.5% 5.5% 2.2%
Toyota 7.6% 7.7% 7.4% -1.1% 2.6%
Volkswagen 9.8% 10.1% 9.4% -3.5% 3.8%
Industry 10.6% 11.0% 10.3% -3.7% 2.3%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company’s operations.)

About TrueCar

TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) is a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars and enables consumers to engage with TrueCar Certified Dealers who are committed to providing a superior purchase experience. TrueCar operates its own branded site and its nationwide network of more than 16,000 Certified Dealers also powers car-buying programs for some of the largest U.S. membership and service organizations, including USAA, AARP, American Express, AAA and Sam's Club. Over half of all new car buyers engage with the TrueCar network during their purchasing process. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in San Francisco and Austin, Texas. For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) Email: pressinquiries@truecar.com

About ALG

Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 50 years and in Canada since 1981.