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TrueCar’s ALG Forecasts New Car Auto Sales Remain Steady, Down Slightly for January 2020

SANTA MONICA, Calif., (January 28, 2020) – TrueCar, Inc.’s (NASDAQ: TRUE) data and analytics subsidiary, ALG, projects total new vehicle sales will reach 1,099,510 units in January 2020, down 2.9% from a year ago. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 16.5 million units. Excluding fleet sales, ALG expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 887,729 units, a decrease of 0.8% from a year ago.

“January is typically a slower month for vehicle sales, but traditional economic indicators such as income growth, unemployment rates and stock market are healthy and positive,” said Eric Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst at ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar. “A steady economy and high consumer confidence are contributing to steady sales this month with only a slight year-over-year decline.”

Additional Insights: (Forecasted by ALG)

  • Among mainstream brands, Kia and Hyundai are expected to kickoff 2020 on a high note with a strong sales month for both brands. Kia is up 10% and Hyundai is up 15% respectively year-over-year for total sales.
    • In terms of new car shoppers, Kia and Hyundai were the fastest growing brands on the TrueCar platform in Q4 2019. Kia saw a 70% lift in visitor share and Hyundai saw a 37% lift in visitor share.
  • BMW’s momentum continues as they compete for the luxury sales crown going into 2020. This month, the German automaker is expected to be up 11.9% year-over-year in total sales and up 11% on retail sales with incentives up by 2.7%.
  • Ford and Nissan are forecasted to be down 11.4% and 24.0%, respectively, in total unit sales compared to a year ago.
    • Ford's decline is primarily driven by fleet which is expected to be down 24%.
    • Nissan has dipped in sales largely due to declining sales from both its mainstream Nissan brand as well as its Infiniti luxury brand. A 40.2% year-over-year decline in fleet sales also contributed to the decline in sales.
  • Average automaker incentive spend is expected to reach $3,674, down 3.0% or $47 dollars year-over-year, and down 12.7% or $532 from December 2019.
    • The most notable year-over-year declines in incentive spend are expected from Mercedes-Benz, Hyundai and Subaru. Meanwhile Toyota, Kia and Volkswagen are expected to have the biggest incentive increases.
  • Used vehicle sales for January 2020 are expected to reach 3,329,070, up 6% from a year ago and up 12% from December 2019.

“Hyundai has shown strong performance in the last 18 months” said Nick Woolard, Director of OEM and Affinity Partner Analytics at TrueCar. “They’ve introduced new products and broadened their utility portfolio. As a result, we’ve seen an increase in consideration and more consumers cross-shopping Hyundai on the TrueCar platform.”

January 2020 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by volume:

Total Unit Sales

Manufacturer Jan 2020 Forecast Jan 2019 Actual Dec 2019 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) MoM % Change MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 23,123 20,660 38,159 11.9% 11.9% -39.4% -39.4%
Daimler 23,663 23,804 35,279 -0.6% -0.6% -32.9% -32.9%
FCA 130,546 136,082 191,075 -4.1% -4.1% -31.7% -31.7%
Ford 152,106 171,763 216,439 -11.4% -11.4% -29.7% -29.7%
GM 187,501 184,780 277,640 1.5% 1.5% -32.5% -32.5%
Honda 102,221 106,139 136,566 -3.7% -3.7% -25.1% -25.1%
Hyundai 48,327 42,020 66,945 15.0% 15.0% -27.8% -27.8%
Kia 41,294 37,376 51,229 10.5% 10.5% -19.4% -19.4%
Nissan 76,607 100,741 104,781 -24.0% -24.0% -26.9% -26.9%
Subaru 45,102 46,072 62,364 -2.1% -2.1% -27.7% -27.7%
Tesla 21,054 18,500 23,300 13.8% 13.8% -9.6% -9.6%
Toyota 155,984 156,021 207,373 0.0% 0.0% -24.8% -24.8%
Volkswagen Group 43,445 43,162 58,816 0.7% 0.7% -26.1% -26.1%
Industry 1,099,510 1,132,911 1,533,555 -2.9% -2.9% -28.3% -28.3%

Retail Unit Sales

Manufacturer Jan 2020 Forecast Jan 2019 Actual Dec 2019 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) MoM % Change MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 21,684 19,532 35,614 11.0% 11.0% -39.1% -39.1%
Daimler 21,518 21,896 33,890 -1.7% -1.7% -36.5% -36.5%
FCA 97,422 106,322 151,253 -8.4% -8.4% -35.6% -35.6%
Ford 103,785 108,128 165,831 -4.0% -4.0% -37.4% -37.4%
GM 136,055 140,762 209,804 -3.3% -3.3% -35.2% -35.2%
Honda 99,568 105,475 134,712 -5.6% -5.6% -26.1% -26.1%
Hyundai 37,099 26,155 59,215 41.8% 41.8% -37.3% -37.3%
Kia 35,568 29,099 45,176 22.2% 22.21% -21.3% -21.3%
Nissan 58.395 70,295 86,409 -16.9% -16.9% -32.4% -32.4%
Subaru 42,594 42,899 60,162 -0.7% -0.7% -29.2% -29.2%
Tesla 21,054 18,500 23,300 13.8% 13.8% -9.6% -9.6%
Toyota 131,330 127,331 195,678 3.1% 3.1% -32.9% -32.9%
Volkswagen Group 39,064 38,154 55,722 2.4% 2.4% -29.9% -29.9%
Industry 887,729 894,844 1,317,478 -0.8% -0.8% -32.6% -32.6%

Fleet Unit Sales

Manufacturer Jan 2020 Forecast Jan 2019 Actual Dec 2019 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) MoM % Change MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 1,439 1,128 2,545 27.5% 27.5% -43.5% -43.5%
Daimler 2,145 1,908 1,389 12.4% 12.4% 54.5% 54.5%
FCA 33,124 29,760 39,822 11.3% 11.3% -16.8% -16.8%
Ford 48,321 63,635 50,608 -24.1% -24.1% -4.5% -4.5%
GM 51,446 44,018 67,836 16.9% 16.9% -24.2% -24.2%
Honda 2,653 664 1,854 299.5% 299.5% 43.0% 43.0%
Hyundai 11,228 15,865 7,730 -29.2% -29.2% 45.3% 45.3%
Kia 5,726 8,277 6,053 -30.8% -30.8% -5.4% -5.4%
Nissan 18,212 30,446 18,372 -40.2% -40.2% -0.9% -0.9%
Subaru 2,508 3,173 2,202 -21.0% -21.0% 13.9% 13.9%
Tesla - - - - - - -
Toyota 24,654 28,690 11,695 -14.1% -14.1% 110.8% 110.8%
Volkswagen Group 4,381 5,008 3,094 -12.5% -12.5% 41.6% 41.6%
Industry 211,781 238,067 216,077 -11.0% -11.0% -2.0% -2.0%

Fleet Penetration

Manufacturer Jan 2020 Forecast Jan 2019 Actual Dec 2019 Actual YoY % Change MoM % Change
BMW 6.2% 5.5% 6.7% 14.0% -6.7%
Daimler 9.1% 8.0% 3.9% 13.1% 130.3%
FCA 25.4% 21.9% 20.8% 16.0% 21.7%
Ford 31.8% 37.0% 23.4% -14.3% 35.9%
GM 27.4% 23.8% 24.4% 15.2% 12.3%
Honda 2.6% 0.6% 1.4% 314.9% 91.1%
Hyundai 23.2% 37.8% 11.5% -38.5% 101.2%
Kia 13.9% 22.1% 11.8% -37.4% 17.4%
Nissan 23.8% 30.2% 17.5% -21.3% 35.6%
Subaru 5.6% 6.9% 3.5% -19.3% 57.4%
Tesla - - - - -
Toyota 15.8% 18.4% 5.6% -14.0% 180.3%
Volkswagen Group 10.1% 11.6% 5.3% -13.1% 91.7%
Industry 19.3% 21.0% 14.1% -8.3% 36.7%

Total Market Share

Manufacturer Jan 2020 Forecast Jan 2019 Actual Dec 2019 Actual
BMW 2.1% 1.8% 2.5%
Daimler 2.2% 2.1% 2.3%
FCA 11.9% 12.0% 12.5%
Ford 13.8% 15.2% 14.1%
GM 17.1% 16.3% 18.1%
Honda 9.3% 9.4% 8.9%
Hyundai 4.4% 3.7% 4.4%
Kia 3.8% 3.3% 3.3%
Nissan 7.0% 8.9% 6.8%
Subaru 4.1% 4.1% 4.1%
Tesla 1.9% 1.6% 1.5%
Toyota 14.2% 13.8% 13.5%
Volkswagen Group 4.0% 3.8% 3.8%

Retail Market Share

Manufacturer Jan 2020 Forecast Jan 2019 Actual Dec 2019 Actual
BMW 2.4% 2.2% 2.7%
Daimler 2.4% 2.4% 2.6%
FCA 11.0% 11.9% 11.5%
Ford 11.7% 12.1% 12.6%
GM 15.3% 15.7% 15.9%
Honda 11.2% 11.8% 10.2%
Hyundai 4.2% 2.9% 4.5%
Kia 4.0% 3.3% 3.4%
Nissan 6.6% 7.9% 6.6%
Subaru 4.8% 4.8% 4.6%
Tesla 2.4% 2.1% 1.8%
Toyota 14.8% 14.2% 14.9%
Volkswagen Group 4.4% 4.3% 4.2%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company’s operations.)

About TrueCar TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) is a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars and enables consumers to engage with TrueCar Certified Dealers who are committed to providing a superior purchase experience. TrueCar operates its own branded site and its nationwide network of more than 16,500 Certified Dealers, and also powers car-buying programs for some of the largest U.S. membership and service organizations, including USAA, AARP, American Express, AAA and Sam’s Club. Nearly half of all new car buyers engage with the TrueCar network during their purchasing process. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with an office in Austin, Texas. For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) | Email: pr@truecar.com

About ALG Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 55 years and in Canada since 1981.

TrueCar and ALG PR Contact: Shadee Malekafzali shadee@truecar.com