Newsroom

New Car Auto Sales Expected to be Down for July While SAAR Continues to Fluctuate in 2019

SANTA MONICA, Calif., (July 26, 2019) – TrueCar, Inc.’s (NASDAQ: TRUE) data and analytics subsidiary, ALG, projects total new vehicle sales will reach 1,385,568 units in July, down 2.9% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 16.6 million units. Excluding fleet sales, ALG expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,185,092 units, a decrease of 5.2% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

"Despite buoyant market fundamentals, auto sales are being pulled back by lower incentives," said Oliver Strauss, Chief Economist for ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar. "SAAR however has fluctuated in 2019 more than in previous years, pointing to some uncertainty about the remainder of the year."

  • Despite industry sales being down year-over-year, Hyundai had a strong month, up 6.2%. Trends on the TrueCar platform indicate that Hyundai is increasingly winning over new car buyers who are cross-shopping other brands, particularly buyers who are also considering Toyota and Subaru models.
  • Tesla continued its sales ascent, up 67.5% year-over-year driven by Model 3 sales.
  • Automaker average incentive spend will reach $3,671, down 2.6% or $97 dollars year-over-year, and down 4% or $151 from June 2019. The most notable declines in incentive spend will come from Kia, down 17.8%, Toyota, down 9.3%, and Subaru, down 9.1% year-over-year. Meanwhile Honda raised incentives by 4.2% and BMW by 3.4%.
  • Average transaction price (ATP) should continue to rise, up 2.7% or $897 year-over-year.
  • Incentives as a percentage of average transaction price are expected to be 10.8%, down 5.1% from a year ago and down 2.8% from June 2019.
  • Volkswagen and Mercedes stood out this month in ALG’s brand strength metric for mainstream and luxury brands respectively, largely driven by new or redesigned product. Volkswagen’s Tiguan received a major refresh for 2019 and the Atlas was added as a new model to the Volkswagen line-up. Mercedes was buoyed by the all-new GLE SUV and its new entry level, A-Class Sedan.
  • Used vehicle sales for July are expected to reach 3,331,762 down 0.8% year-over-year and flat from June 2019. "With a tightening of consumer demand and automaker incentives, savvy car buyers are likely holding out in anticipation of better deals or widening their consideration set to get the most value," said Eric Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst at ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar. "Hyundai has been a prime example of this trend, they’ve been able to capture sales in a declining sales environment by attracting shoppers from other brands."

Retail Health Index (Forecast)

RHI measures the changes in retail market share relative to changes in incentive spending and transaction price to gauge whether OEMs are "buying" retail share through increased incentives, or whether share increases are largely demand-driven. An OEM with a positive RHI score is demonstrating a healthy balance of incentive spend relative to market share, either by holding incentive spending flat and increasing share or by increasing incentives with a higher positive increase in retail share.

RHI, Top 12 Manufacturers

Jul 2019 Forecast YOY Change MOM Change
BMW 0.1% -0.2%
Daimler 1.0% -0.8%
FCA 0.6% -0.2%
Ford -0.9% -0.8%
GM 1.5% -0.6%
Honda -0.1% 0.0%
Hyundai 2.0% 0.3%
Kia 3.4% -0.2%
Nissan -0.5% -0.3%
Subaru 0.8% -0.1%
Toyota 0.4% 0.1%
Volkswagen Group 2.2% 0.3%

RHI, Luxury

Jul 2019 Forecast YOY Change MOM Change
Acura 0.7% -0.3%
Alfa Romeo -0.8% 0.4%
Audi -0.2% 0.4%
BMW 0.2% -0.2%
Cadillac 0.4% -0.9%
Genesis -6.4% 0.3%
Infiniti -3.3% -0.6%
Jaguar -1.1% -0.2%
Land Rover -0.5% 0.0%
Lexus -1.8% -0.6%
Lincoln 1.1% -0.3%
Maserati -2.0% -0.7%
Mercedes-Benz 1.0% -0.8%
Porsche 1.0% -0.2%
Volvo -0.9% -0.4%

RHI, Mainstream

Jul 2019 Forecast YOY Change MOM Change
Buick 1.2% -0.5%
Chevrolet 2.4% -0.6%
Chrysler 0.2% 0.1%
Dodge 0.9% 0.3%
Fiat 5.1% -0.1%
Ford -1.0% -0.8%
GMC -1.0% -0.7%
Honda -0.2% 0.0%
Hyundai 2.2% 0.3%
Jeep 1.1% -0.4%
Kia 3.4% -0.2%
Mazda 2.5% 0.0%
MINI -0.3% -0.4%
Mitsubishi 2.4% -0.7%
Nissan -0.2% -0.2%
Ram -0.1% -0.4%
Smart -30.8% 2.2%
Subaru 0.8% -0.1%
Toyota 0.7% 0.2%
Volkswagen 4.0% 0.3%

Total Unit Sales

Manufacturer Jul 2019 Forecast Jul 2018 Actual Jun 2019 Actual YOY % Change YOY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) MOM % Change MOM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 27,667 26,410 34,982 4.8% 0.6% -20.9% -17.7%
Daimler 24,417 23,058 29,275 5.9% 1.7% -16.6% -13.3%
FCA 169,540 170,970 206,083 -0.8% -4.8% -17.7% -14.4%
Ford 188,532 192,743 218,691 -2.2% -6.1% -13.8% -10.3%
GM 229,755 221,437 249,182 3.8% -0.4% -7.8% -4.1%
Honda 141,147 138,602 135,901 1.8% -2.2% 3.9% 8.0%
Hyundai 57,231 51,752 66,089 10.6% 6.2% -13.4% -9.9%
Kia 57,227 53,112 56,801 7.7% 3.4% 0.8% 4.8%
Nissan 101,426 108,792 123,504 -6.8% -10.5% -17.9% -14.6%
Subaru 60,302 59,426 61,511 1.5% -2.6% -2.0% 2.0%
Tesla 16,222 9,300 14,400 74.4% 67.5% 12.7% 17.2%
Toyota 203,495 208,770 202,352 -2.5% -6.4% 0.6% 4.6%
Volkswagen Group 56,175 54,070 56,697 3.9% -0.3% -0.9% 3.0%
Industry 1,385,568 1,370,405 1,509,963 1.1% -2.9% -8.2% -4.6%

Retail Unit Sales

Manufacturer Jul 2019 Forecast Jul 2018 Actual Jun 2019 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) MoM % Change MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 25,465 24,673 31,934 3.2% -0.9% -20.3% -17.1%
Daimler 23,077 21,864 27,296 5.5% 1.3% -15.5% -12.1%
FCA 146,492 154,119 153,880 -4.9% -8.8% -4.8% -1.0%
Ford 137,490 140,837 150,621 -2.4% -6.3% -8.7% -5.1%
GM 188,891 182,132 208,933 3.7% -0.4% -9.6% -6.0%
Honda 138,100 137,835 134,638 0.2% -3.8% 2.6% 6.7%
Hyundai 44,807 48,779 47,825 -8.1% -11.8% -6.3% -2.6%
Kia 44,136 41,959 41,861 5.2% 1.0% 5.4% 9.7%
Nissan 79,860 90,756 84,883 -12.0% -15.5% -5.9% -2.2%
Subaru 55,968 57,019 56,252 -1.8% -5.8% -0.5% 3.5%
Tesla 16,222 9,300 14,400 74.4% 67.5% 12.7% 17.2%
Toyota 183,529 190,063 178,729 -3.4% -7.3% 2.7% 6.8%
Volkswagen Group 51,877 51,484 51,559 0.8% -3.3% 0.6% 4.6%
Industry 1,185,092 1,200,420 1,232,342 -1.3% -5.2% -3.8% 0.0%

Fleet Unit Sales

Manufacturer Jul 2019 Forecast Jul 2018 Actual Jun 2019 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) MoM % Change MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 2,202 1,737 3,048 26.8% 21.7% -27.8% -24.9%
Daimler 1,340 1,194 1,979 12.2% 7.7% -32.3% -29.6%
FCA 23,048 16,851 52,203 36.8% 31.3% -55.8% -54.1%
Ford 51,042 51,906 68,070 -1.7% -5.6% -25.0% -22.0%
GM 40,864 39,305 40,249 4.0% -0.2% 1.5% 5.6%
Honda 3,047 767 1,263 297.1% 281.2% 141.2% 150.8%
Hyundai 12,424 2,973 18,264 317.9% 301.2% -32.0% -29.3%
Kia 13,091 11,153 14,940 17.4% 12.7% -12.4% -8.9%
Nissan 21,566 18,036 38,621 19.6% 14.8% -44.2% -41.9%
Subaru 4,334 2,407 5,259 80.1% 72.9% -17.6% -14.3%
Tesla - - - - - - -
Toyota 19,966 18,707 23,623 6.7% 2.5% -15.5% -12.1%
Volkswagen Group 4,298 2,586 5,138 66.2% 59.5% -16.4% -13.0%
Industry 200,476 169,985 277,621 17.9% 13.2% -27.8% -24.9%

Fleet Penetration

Manufacturer Jul 2019 Forecast Jul 2018 Actual Jun 2019 Actual YoY % Change MoM % Change
BMW 8.0% 6.6% 8.7% 21.0% -8.7%
Daimler 5.5% 5.2% 6.8% 6.0% -18.8%
FCA 13.6% 9.9% 25.3% 37.9% -46.3%
Ford 27.1% 26.9% 31.1% 0.5% -13.0%
GM 17.8% 17.8% 16.2% 0.2% 10.1%
Honda 2.2% 0.6% 0.9% 290.0% 132.2%
Hyundai 21.7% 5.7% 27.6% 277.9% -21.4%
Kia 22.9% 21.0% 26.3% 8.9% -13.0%
Nissan 21.3% 16.6% 31.3% 28.3% -32.0%
Subaru 7.2% 4.1% 8.6% 77.5% -15.9%
Tesla - - - - -
Toyota 9.8% 9.0% 11.7% 9.5% -16.0%
Volkswagen Group 7.7% 4.8% 9.1% 59.9% -15.6%
Industry 14.5% 12.4% 18.4% 16.6% -21.3%

Total Market Share

Manufacturer Jul 2019 Forecast Jul 2018 Actual Jun 2019 Actual
BMW 2.0% 1.9% 2.3%
Daimler 1.8% 1.7% 1.9%
FCA 12.2% 12.5% 13.6%
Ford 13.6% 14.1% 14.5%
GM 16.6% 16.2% 16.5%
Honda 10.2% 10.1% 9.0%
Hyundai 4.1% 3.8% 4.4%
Kia 4.1% 3.9% 3.8%
Nissan 7.3% 7.9% 8.2%
Subaru 4.4% 4.3% 4.1%
Tesla 1.2% 0.7% 1.0%
Toyota 14.7% 15.2% 13.4%
Volkswagen Group 4.1% 3.9% 3.8%

Retail Market Share

Manufacturer Jul 2019 Forecast Jul 2018 Actual Jun 2019 Actual
BMW 2.1% 2.1% 2.6%
Daimler 1.9% 1.8% 2.2%
FCA 12.4% 12.8% 12.5%
Ford 11.6% 11.7% 12.2%
GM 15.9% 15.2% 17.0%
Honda 11.7% 11.5% 10.9%
Hyundai 3.8% 4.1% 3.9%
Kia 3.7% 3.5% 3.4%
Nissan 6.7% 7.6% 6.9%
Subaru 4.7% 4.7% 4.6%
Tesla 1.4% 0.8% 1.2%
Toyota 15.5% 15.8% 14.5%
Volkswagen Group 4.4% 4.3% 4.2%

Average transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer Jul 2019 Forecast Jul 2018 Actual Jun 2019 Actual YOY MOM
BMW $54,679 $51,391 $55,542 6.4% -1.6%
Daimler $57,411 $55,794 $58,809 2.9% -2.4%
FCA $36,310 $34,558 $36,125 5.1% 0.5%
Ford $38,125 $36,800 $37,715 3.6% 1.1%
GM $37,122 $36,553 $37,806 1.6% -1.8%
Honda $28,056 $28,264 $28,085 -0.7% -0.1%
Hyundai $24,409 $22,020 $23,004 10.8% 6.1%
Kia $23,698 $22,551 $24,123 5.1% -1.8%
Nissan $26,881 $26,931 $27,095 -0.2% -0.8%
Subaru $29,153 $28,551 $29,180 2.1% -0.1%
Toyota $32,274 $31,825 $32,588 1.4% -1.0%
Volkswagen Group $40,562 $39,895 $42,524 1.7% -4.6%
Industry $34,043 $33,146 $34,441 2.7% -1.2%

Incentive Spending

Manufacturer Jul 2019 Forecast Jul 2018 Actual Jun 2019 Actual YOY MOM
BMW $5,981 $5,783 $6,067 3.4% -1.4%
Daimler $5,388 $5,267 $5,386 2.3% 0.0%
FCA $4,679 $4,458 $5,056 4.9% -7.5%
Ford $4,528 $4,629 $4,569 -2.2% -0.9%
GM $5,058 $4,948 $5,141 2.2% -1.6%
Honda $2,017 $1,935 $1,993 4.2% 1.2%
Hyundai $2,716 $2,946 $2,730 -7.8% -0.5%
Kia $3,543 $4,313 $3,541 -17.8% 0.1%
Nissan $3,904 $4,068 $3,897 -4.0% 0.2%
Subaru $1,473 $1,621 $1,454 -9.1% 1.3%
Toyota $2,388 $2,633 $2,415 -9.3% -1.1%
Volkswagen Group $3,562 $3,839 $3,480 -7.2% 2.4%
Industry $3,671 $3,768 $3,822 -2.6% -4.0%

Incentives as % of ATP

Manufacturer Jul 2019 Forecast Jul 2018 Actual Jun 2019 Actual YOY MOM
BMW 10.9% 11.3% 10.9% -2.8% 0.1%
Daimler 9.4% 9.4% 9.2% -0.6% 2.5%
FCA 12.9% 12.9% 14.0% -0.1% -7.9%
Ford 11.9% 12.6% 12.1% -5.6% -2.0%
GM 13.6% 13.5% 13.6% 0.7% 0.2%
Honda 7.2% 6.8% 7.1% 5.0% 1.3%
Hyundai 11.1% 13.4% 11.9% -16.8% -6.2%
Kia 15.0% 19.1% 14.7% -21.8% 1.9%
Nissan 14.5% 15.1% 14.4% -3.8% 1.0%
Subaru 5.1% 5.7% 5.0% -11.0% 1.4%
Toyota 7.4% 8.3% 7.4% -10.6% -0.2%
Volkswagen Group 8.8% 9.6% 8.2% -8.8% 7.3%
Industry 10.8% 11.4% 11.1% -5.1% -2.8%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company’s operations.)

About TrueCar

TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) is a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars and enables consumers to engage with TrueCar Certified Dealers who are committed to providing a superior purchase experience. TrueCar operates its own branded site and its nationwide network of more than 16,000 Certified Dealers also powers car-buying programs for some of the largest U.S. membership and service organizations, including USAA, AARP, American Express, AAA and Sam’s Club. Over half of all new car buyers engage with the TrueCar network during their purchasing process. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in San Francisco and Austin, Texas. For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) Email: pressinquiries@truecar.com

About ALG

Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 50 years and in Canada since 1981.