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At June 2019 Year Midpoint TrueCar’s ALG Maintains 17M Annual SAAR New Car Sales Forecast

New car sales expected to be down 2% for the second quarter compared to last year

SANTA MONICA, Calif., (June 26, 2019) – TrueCar, Inc.’s (NASDAQ: TRUE) data and analytics subsidiary, ALG, projects total new vehicle sales will reach 1,487,407 units in June, down 0.6% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 17 million units for the month, and is expected to remain at 17M SAAR for 2019. Excluding fleet sales, ALG expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,203,565 units, a decrease of 6.3% from a year ago.

For the second quarter of 2019, ALG expects new vehicle sales will reach 4,409,295 units, down slightly, at 2%, from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

“Increased incentive spending by several automakers in June in tandem with sustained strength in the underlying macro-economic indicators is helping drive resilient sales for both the month and quarter,” said Oliver Strauss, Chief Economist for ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar. “Given these factors, we are holding our initial forecast of 17M SAAR for 2019 made in January.”

Month:

  • Automaker average incentive spend will reach $3,747, down 1% or $37 dollars year-over-year, and up 0.4% or $16 from May 2019. However, several automakers increased incentive spend year-over-year in June, most notably Honda and Toyota, up 12.3% or $226 and 3.5% or $80 respectively.
  • Average transaction price (ATP) should continue to rise, up 3.1% or $1,014 year-over-year
  • Incentives as a percentage of average transaction price are expected to be 11%, down 3.9% from a year ago and up 0.6% from May 2019.
  • Kia is expected to continue to score high amongst mainstream competitors in brand strength this month according to ALG’s Retail Health Index (RHI). This is driven largely by the Kia Telluride helping drive Kia retail sales up 8.3% year-over-year. On the TrueCar platform, recent trends show the newly launched Telluride advanced to the second most visited new midsize SUV and 10th most visited new vehicle overall. The Telluride also became the most popular midsize SUV and 8th most popular vehicle overall that consumers elected to connect with TrueCar Certified Dealers to receive upfront pricing on vehicles in their inventory.
  • Lincoln stood out this month in ALG’s brand strength metric as well with high RHI scores amongst luxury brands which we believe is due to the continued success of the Lincoln Navigator and Nautilus SUV models.
  • Used vehicle sales for June are expected to reach 3,215,742 down 4.2% year-over-year and down 5.8% from May 2019.

Quarter:

  • Tesla, Subaru and Honda are each expected to gain 0.5 percentage points in retail market share in Q2 2019 compared to the same period last year. This is believed to be driven by Model 3 and Ascent performance for Tesla and Subaru, and a boost in incentive spend for Honda.
  • ALG expects used vehicle sales for Q2 2019 to reach 9,944,173 units, down 2.4% year-over-year.
  • Incentive spending by automakers is expected to reach $3,629 in Q2 2019, down 2.5% compared to the same period last year.

“New SUV product continues to be king in June,” said Eric Lyman, Chief Analyst for ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar. “Kia’s Telluride, along with Lincoln’s Navigator and Nautilus are resonating with consumers, helping those brands move metal and increase market share this month without raising incentives.”

“For the second quarter, new car performance continues to be strong from a historical perspective. We’re seeing a combination of exciting product and savvy incentive strategy propelling Tesla, Subaru and Honda respectively in gaining retail market share,” added Lyman.

Retail Health Index (Forecast)

RHI measures the changes in retail market share relative to changes in incentive spending and transaction price to gauge whether OEMs are “buying” retail share through increased incentives, or whether share increases are largely demand-driven. An OEM with a positive RHI score is demonstrating a healthy balance of incentive spend relative to market share, either by holding incentive spending flat and increasing share or by increasing incentives with a higher positive increase in retail share.

RHI, Top 12 Manufacturers

Jun 2019 Forecast YOY Change MOM Change
BMW 0.8% 0.2%
Daimler 0.2% 0.2%
FCA 1.2% 0.1%
Ford -0.6% -0.8%
GM 1.6% 0.1%
Honda 0.3% 0.5%
Hyundai 1.1% -0.4%
Kia 2.9% -0.1%
Nissan -0.9% -0.7%
Subaru 0.8% 0.0%
Toyota 0.9% 0.4%
Volkswagen Group 1.4% 0.0%

RHI, Luxury

Jun 2019 Forecast YOY Change MOM Change
Acura 1.6% 0.4%
Alfa Romeo -2.9% -1.2%
Audi -2.5% -0.3%
BMW 0.9% 0.2%
Cadillac -0.1% -0.8%
Genesis -7.0% 0.0%
Infiniti -2.9% -0.5%
Jaguar -2.2% 0.2%
Land Rover -1.3% 0.0%
Lexus -1.4% -0.5%
Lincoln 1.2% 0.1%
Maserati -2.8% -1.6%
Mercedes-Benz 0.3% 0.2%
Porsche 0.5% 0.0%
Volvo -0.7% -0.3%

RHI, Mainstream

Jun 2019 Forecast YOY Change MOM Change
Buick 1.7% 0.0%
Chevrolet 2.4% 0.3%
Chrysler 0.1% 0.2%
Dodge -0.9% -1.8%
Fiat 4.8% 0.6%
Ford -0.7% -0.9%
GMC -0.7% -0.1%
Honda 0.2% 0.5%
Hyundai 1.4% -0.4%
Jeep 1.0% 0.3%
Kia 2.9% -0.1%
Mazda 2.4% 0.0%
MINI 0.1% 0.0%
Mitsubishi 2.4% 0.5%
Nissan -0.6% -0.7%
Ram 2.3% 0.5%
Smart -30.5% 2.4%
Subaru 0.8% 0.0%
Toyota 1.2% 0.5%
Volkswagen 3.9% 0.1%

Total Unit Sales

Manufacturer Jun 2019 Forecast Jun 2018 Actual May 2019 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) MoM % Change MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 32,103 33,790 30,028 -5.0% -1.3% 6.9% 6.9%
Daimler 28,283 29,125 30,048 -2.9% 0.8% -5.9% -5.9%
FCA 202,466 202,264 218,702 0.1% 3.9% -7.4% -7.4%
Ford 204,086 229,537 231,588 -11.1% -7.7% -11.9% -11.9%
GM 252,738 256,609 261,452 -1.5% 2.3% -3.3% -3.3%
Honda 142,968 146,563 145,532 -2.5% 1.3% -1.8% -1.8%
Hyundai 63,539 64,052 68,434 -0.8% 3.0% -7.2% -7.2%
Kia 58,964 56,571 60,062 4.2% 8.2% -1.8% -1.8%
Nissan 125,147 145,096 131,983 -13.7% -10.4% -5.2% -5.2%
Subaru 58,395 59,841 63,972 -2.4% 1.3% -8.7% -8.7%
Tesla 12,250 8,200 11,300 49.4% 55.1% 8.4% 8.4%
Toyota 202,760 209,602 222,174 -3.3% 0.5% -8.7% -8.7%
Volkswagen Group 50,977 53,670 59,986 -5.0% -1.4% -15.0% -15.0%
Industry 1,487,407 1,553,317 1,590,217 -4.2% -0.6% -6.5% -6.5%

Retail Unit Sales

Manufacturer Jun 2019 Forecast Jun 2018 Actual May 2019 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) MoM % Change MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 29,278 32,125 28,124 -8.9% -5.4% 4.1% 4.1%
Daimler 26,465 27,815 28,352 -4.9% -1.2% -6.7% -6.7%
FCA 152,904 166,546 170,891 -8.2% -4.7% -10.5% -10.5%
Ford 134,364 193,083 165,714 -30.4% -27.7% -18.9% -18.9%
GM 201,381 218,036 196,951 -7.6% -4.1% 2.2% 2.2%
Honda 139,962 145,721 144,354 -4.0% -0.3% -3.0% -3.0%
Hyundai 48,545 51,162 54,508 -5.1% -1.5% -10.9% -10.9%
Kia 45,793 42,279 46,144 8.3% 12.5% -0.8% -0.8%
Nissan 83,601 100,065 91,854 -16.5% -13.2% -9.0% -9.0%
Subaru 53,420 53,438 59,749 0.0% 3.8% -10.6% -10.6%
Tesla 12,250 8,200 11,300 49.4% 55.1% 8.4% 8.4%
Toyota 181,044 191,616 195,582 -5.5% -1.9% -7.4% -7.4%
Volkswagen Group 46,159 50,654 50,544 -8.9% -5.4% -8.7% -8.7%
Industry 1,203,565 1,333,492 1,291,407 -9.7% -6.3% -6.8% -6.8%

Fleet Unit Sales

Manufacturer Jun 2019 Forecast Jun 2018 Actual May 2019 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) MoM % Change MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 2,824 1,665 1,904 69.6% 76.2% 48.4% 48.4%
Daimler 1,818 1,310 1,696 38.7% 44.1% 7.1% 7.1%
FCA 49,562 35,718 47,811 38.8% 44.1% 3.7% 3.7%
Ford 69,722 36,454 65,874 91.3% 98.6% 5.8% 5.8%
GM 51,357 38,573 64,501 33.1% 38.3% -20.4% -20.4%
Honda 3,006 842 1,178 256.9% 270.6% 155.1% 155.1%
Hyundai 14,994 12,890 13,926 16.3% 20.8% 7.7% 7.7%
Kia 13,171 14,292 13,918 -7.8% -4.3% -5.4% -5.4%
Nissan 41,546 45,031 40,129 -7.7% -4.2% 3.5% 3.5%
Subaru 4,975 6,403 4,223 -22.3% -19.3% 17.8% 17.8%
Tesla - - -
Toyota 21,716 17,986 26,592 20.7% 25.4% -18.3% -18.3%
Volkswagen Group 4,817 3,016 9,442 59.7% 65.9% -49.0% -49.0%
Industry 283,842 219,825 298,810 29.1% 34.1% -5.0% -5.0%

Fleet Penetration

Manufacturer Jun 2019 Forecast Jun 2018 Actual May 2019 Actual YoY % Change MoM % Change
BMW 8.8% 4.9% 6.3% 78.6% 38.8%
Daimler 6.4% 4.5% 5.6% 42.9% 13.8%
FCA 24.5% 17.7% 21.9% 38.6% 12.0%
Ford 34.2% 15.9% 28.4% 115.1% 20.1%
GM 20.3% 15.0% 24.7% 35.2% -17.6%
Honda 2.1% 0.6% 0.8% 265.8% 159.7%
Hyundai 23.6% 20.1% 20.3% 17.3% 16.0%
Kia 22.3% 25.3% 23.2% -11.6% -3.6%
Nissan 33.2% 31.0% 30.4% 7.0% 9.2%
Subaru 8.5% 10.7% 6.6% -20.4% 29.1%
Tesla 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Toyota 10.7% 8.6% 12.0% 24.8% -10.5%
Volkswagen Group 9.4% 5.6% 15.7% 68.2% -40.0%
Industry 19.1% 14.2% 18.8% 34.8% 1.6%

Total Market Share

Manufacturer Jun 2019 Forecast Jun 2018 Actual May 2019 Actual
BMW 2.2% 2.2% 1.9%
Daimler 1.9% 1.9% 1.9%
FCA 13.6% 13.0% 13.8%
Ford 13.7% 14.8% 14.6%
GM 17.0% 16.5% 16.4%
Honda 9.6% 9.4% 9.2%
Hyundai 4.3% 4.1% 4.3%
Kia 4.0% 3.6% 3.8%
Nissan 8.4% 9.3% 8.3%
Subaru 3.9% 3.9% 4.0%
Tesla 0.8% 0.5% 0.7%
Toyota 13.6% 13.5% 14.0%
Volkswagen Group 3.4% 3.5% 3.8%

Retail Market Share

Manufacturer Jun 2019 Forecast Jun 2018 Actual May 2019 Actual
BMW 2.4% 2.4% 2.2%
Daimler 2.2% 2.1% 2.2%
FCA 12.7% 12.5% 13.2%
Ford 11.2% 14.5% 12.8%
GM 16.7% 16.4% 15.3%
Honda 11.6% 10.9% 11.2%
Hyundai 4.0% 3.8% 4.2%
Kia 3.8% 3.2% 3.6%
Nissan 6.9% 7.5% 7.1%
Subaru 4.4% 4.0% 4.6%
Tesla 1.0% 0.6% 0.9%
Toyota 15.0% 14.4% 15.1%
Volkswagen Group 3.8% 3.8% 3.9%

Total Unit Sales, Quarterly

Manufacturer Q2 2019 Q2 2018 Q1 2019 YoY % Change YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) QoQ % Change QoQ % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 88,633 92,145 83,175 -3.8% -3.8% 6.6% 5.2%
Daimler 84,047 89,427 78,878 -6.0% -6.0% 6.6% 5.2%
FCA 594,068 600,707 498,425 -1.1% -1.1% 19.2% 17.6%
Ford 629,893 674,920 586,956 -6.7% -6.7% 7.3% 5.9%
GM 747,872 757,620 665,005 -1.3% -1.3% 12.5% 11.0%
Honda 414,275 425,333 369,787 -2.6% -2.6% 12.0% 10.6%
Hyundai 188,998 186,171 151,787 1.5% 1.5% 24.5% 22.9%
Kia 170,411 166,618 136,596 2.3% 2.3% 24.8% 23.1%
Nissan 352,828 364,692 365,851 -3.3% -3.3% -3.6% -4.8%
Subaru 179,655 173,157 156,754 3.8% 3.8% 14.6% 13.1%
Tesla 34,150 19,000 46,900 79.7% 79.7% -27.2% -28.1%
Toyota 608,800 617,271 543,716 -1.4% -1.4% 12.0% 10.5%
Volkswagen Group 162,711 163,285 150,184 -0.4% -0.4% 8.3% 6.9%
Industry 4,409,295 4,500,262 4,006,667 -2.0% -2.0% 10.0% 8.6%

Retail Unit Sales, Quarterly

Manufacturer Q2 2019 Q2 2018 Q1 2019 YoY % Change YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) QoQ % Change QoQ % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 79,790 85,813 75,538 -7.0% -7.0% 5.6% 4.3%
Daimler 77,930 85,085 72,955 -8.4% -8.4% 6.8% 5.4%
FCA 454,044 502,550 382,135 -9.7% -9.7% 18.8% 17.3%
Ford 435,003 533,502 396,598 -18.5% -18.5% 9.7% 8.3%
GM 594,053 644,718 644,811 -7.9% -7.9% -7.9% -9.1%
Honda 407,663 417,689 362,378 -2.4% -2.4% 12.5% 11.0%
Hyundai 140,406 147,652 105,297 -4.9% -4.9% 33.3% 31.6%
Kia 129,235 129,546 104,584 -0.2% -0.2% 23.6% 22.0%
Nissan 243,754 262,708 242,847 -7.2% -7.2% 0.4% -0.9%
Subaru 166,222 156,378 147,331 6.3% 6.3% 12.8% 11.4%
Tesla 34,150 19,000 46,900 79.7% 79.7% -27.2% -28.1%
Toyota 532,577 561,611 452,310 -5.2% -5.2% 17.7% 16.2%
Volkswagen Group 143,648 150,983 134,111 -4.9% -4.9% 7.1% 5.7%
Industry 3,575,979 3,844,495 3,305,223 -7.0% -7.0% 8.2% 6.8%

Total Market Share, Quarterly

Manufacturer Q2 2019 Q2 2018 Q1 2019
BMW 2.0% 2.0% 2.1%
Daimler 1.9% 2.0% 2.0%
FCA 13.5% 13.3% 12.4%
Ford 14.3% 15.0% 14.6%
GM 17.0% 16.8% 16.6%
Honda 9.4% 9.5% 9.2%
Hyundai 4.3% 4.1% 3.8%
Kia 3.9% 3.7% 3.4%
Nissan 8.0% 8.1% 9.1%
Subaru 4.1% 3.8% 3.9%
Tesla 0.8% 0.4% 1.2%
Toyota 13.8% 13.7% 13.6%
Volkswagen Group 3.7% 3.6% 3.7%

Retail Market Share, Quarterly

Manufacturer Q2 2019 Q2 2018 Q1 2019
BMW 2.2% 2.2% 2.3%
Daimler 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%
FCA 12.7% 13.1% 11.6%
Ford 12.2% 13.9% 12.0%
GM 16.6% 16.8% 19.5%
Honda 11.4% 10.9% 11.0%
Hyundai 3.9% 3.8% 3.2%
Kia 3.6% 3.4% 3.2%
Nissan 6.8% 6.8% 7.3%
Subaru 4.6% 4.1% 4.5%
Tesla 1.0% 0.5% 1.4%
Toyota 14.9% 14.6% 13.7%
Volkswagen Group 4.0% 3.9% 4.1%

Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer Jun 2019 Forecast Jun 2018 Actual May 2019 Actual YOY MOM
BMW $55,374 $51,446 $56,279 7.6% -1.6%
Daimler $59,231 $57,450 $58,681 3.1% 0.9%
FCA $36,270 $34,722 $36,341 4.5% -0.2%
Ford $37,369 $36,388 $37,616 2.7% -0.7%
GM $37,629 $36,474 $37,561 3.2% 0.2%
Honda $27,948 $27,969 $27,978 -0.1% -0.1%
Hyundai $23,038 $22,055 $23,510 4.5% -2.0%
Kia $24,089 $22,583 $23,841 6.7% 1.0%
Nissan $27,415 $27,181 $27,647 0.9% -0.8%
Subaru $28,950 $27,881 $29,054 3.8% -0.4%
Toyota $32,456 $31,843 $32,377 1.9% 0.2%
Volkswagen Group $37,240 $35,482 $37,306 5.0% -0.2%
Industry $34,036 $33,022 $34,111 3.1% -0.2%

Incentive Spending

Manufacturer Jun 2019 Forecast Jun 2018 Actual May 2019 Actual YOY MOM
BMW $5,688 $5,557 $5,755 2.3% -1.2%
Daimler $5,990 $6,464 $5,301 -7.3% 13.0%
FCA $4,562 $4,503 $4,439 1.3% 2.8%
Ford $4,435 $4,444 $4,496 -0.2% -1.4%
GM $5,040 $5,196 $5,100 -3.0% -1.2%
Honda $2,059 $1,833 $2,063 12.3% -0.2%
Hyundai $2,973 $2,899 $2,883 2.6% 3.1%
Kia $3,835 $3,928 $3,574 -2.4% 7.3%
Nissan $4,043 $4,041 $4,017 0.0% 0.6%
Subaru $1,537 $1,505 $1,528 2.1% 0.6%
Toyota $2,346 $2,266 $2,424 3.5% -3.2%
Volkswagen Group $3,708 $3,927 $3,397 -5.6% 9.1%
Industry $3,747 $3,785 $3,732 -1.0% 0.4%

Incentives as % of ATP

Manufacturer Jun 2019 Forecast Jun 2018 Actual May 2019 Actual YOY MOM
BMW 10.3% 10.8% 10.2% -4.9% 0.4%
Daimler 10.1% 11.3% 9.0% -10.1% 12.0%
FCA 12.6% 13.0% 12.2% -3.0% 3.0%
Ford 11.9% 12.2% 12.0% -2.8% -0.7%
GM 13.4% 14.2% 13.6% -6.0% -1.4%
Honda 7.4% 6.6% 7.4% 12.4% -0.1%
Hyundai 12.9% 13.1% 12.3% -1.8% 5.2%
Kia 15.9% 17.4% 15.0% -8.5% 6.2%
Nissan 14.7% 14.9% 14.5% -0.8% 1.5%
Subaru 5.3% 5.4% 5.3% -1.6% 1.0%
Toyota 7.2% 7.1% 7.5% 1.6% -3.5%
Volkswagen Group 10.0% 11.1% 9.1% -10.0% 9.3%
Industry 11.0% 11.5% 10.9% -3.9% 0.6%

Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company’s operations.

About TrueCar

TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) is a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars and enables consumers to engage with TrueCar Certified Dealers who are committed to providing a superior purchase experience. TrueCar operates its own branded site and its nationwide network of more than 16,000 Certified Dealers also powers car-buying programs for some of the largest U.S. membership and service organizations, including USAA, AARP, American Express, AAA and Sam’s Club. Over half of all new car buyers engage with the TrueCar network during their purchasing process. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in San Francisco and Austin, Texas. For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) Email: pressinquiries@truecar.com

About ALG

Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 50 years and in Canada since 1981.