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TrueCar’s ALG Forecasts New Car Auto Sales Remain Steady, Down Slightly for November in Similar Trend Throughout 2019

SANTA MONICA, Calif., (November 26, 2019) – TrueCar, Inc.’s (NASDAQ: TRUE) data and analytics subsidiary, ALG, projects total new vehicle sales will reach 1,399,639 units in November 2019, down 3% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 16.9 million units. Excluding fleet sales, ALG expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,193,462 units, a decrease of 2.6% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

“Economic fundamentals remain solid with November auto sales continuing to follow a similar trend as previous months in 2019 with a slight year-over-year decline,” said Oliver Strauss, Chief Economist at ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar. “Consumers are continuing to purchase vehicles yet at a more cautious rate than in previous years due to ongoing tariff and recession uncertainty.”

Additional Insights: (Forecasted by ALG)

  • Among mainstream brands, Honda stood out for total sales, up 5.6% year-over-year, buoyed by an increase in incentive spend and fleet sales. Typically known for its discipline, Honda has increased incentive spend throughout 2019 but maintains a lower dollar spend than most other manufacturers.
  • Hyundai and Kia continue to perform well, up 7.8% and 6.1%, respectively, year-over-year, led by their new Palisade and Telluride utilities and other new product.
    • On the TrueCar Platform, the Hyundai Palisade and Kia Telluride midsize utilities are continuing to resonate with consumers generating high demand and often driving transaction prices above MSRP.
  • For the luxury brands, BMW had a strong month with a 4.4% year-over-year sales increase and Mercedes-Benz stood out again, up 3.1% on total sales and 5.3% on retail while lowering incentives.
  • Tesla is expected to be up month-over-month but down year-over-year given difficult compares from last year's surge in buyers hoping to secure the last of their federal EV credits. The electric automaker is expected to be down 11.3% in total units year-over-year.
  • Nissan is forecast to be down 12.4% in total unit sales compared to a year ago with losses expected from both its Infiniti luxury brand as well as its mainstream Nissan brand. Meanwhile FCA is expected to be down 9.2%, mainly attributed to aging product and a decrease in fleet sales.
  • Average automaker incentive spend is expected to reach $3,767, up 1.2% or $43 dollars year-over-year, and down 3.5% or $137 from October 2019.
    • The most notable year-over-year declines in incentive spend are expected from Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Nissan. Meanwhile, Subaru, FCA and Honda are expected to have the biggest incentive increases.
  • Used vehicle sales for November 2019 are expected to reach 3,095,166 up 9% from a year ago and down 10% from October 2019.

“Black Friday is one of the biggest sales days in retail, and automotive retail is no different,” said Eric Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst for ALG. “Black Friday marks the beginning of the busy end-of-year car buying season with automakers and dealers sweetening their deals making it one of the best days for consumers to buy. Like with recent years, most automakers pulled forward Black Friday deals into the beginning of November to help spur retail sales.”

November 2019 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by volume: (Adjusted for same selling days as November 2018.)

Total Unit Sales

Manufacturer Nov 2019 Forecast Nov 2018 Actual Oct 2019 Actual YOY % Change YOY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) MOM % Change MOM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 34,686 31,955 28,518 8.5% 4.4% 21.6% 26.3%
Daimler 35,372 32,979 32,130 7.3% 3.1% 10.1% 14.3%
FCA 171,152 181,310 177,120 -5.6% -9.2% -3.4% 0.3%
Ford 190,135 195,255 193,571 -2.6% -6.4% -1.8% 2.0%
GM 245,734 248,677 209,870 -1.2% -5.0% 17.1% 21.6%
Honda 132,378 120,534 131,443 9.8% 5.6% 0.7% 4.6%
Hyundai 64,455 57,499 59,029 12.1% 7.8% 9.2% 13.4%
Kia 49,766 45,101 50,007 10.3% 6.1% -0.5% 3.3%
Nissan 100,659 110,513 103,563 -8.9% -12.4% -2.8% 0.9%
Subaru 57,390 56,782 55,531 1.1% -2.8% 3.3% 7.3%
Tesla 15,502 16,800 14,000 -7.7% -11.3% 10.7% 15.0%
Toyota 199,163 190,423 188,787 4.6% 0.6% 5.5% 9.6%
Volkswagen Group 51,317 49,912 53,067 2.8% -1.1% -3.3% 0.4%
Industry 1,399,639 1,387,077 1,343,842 0.9% -3.0% 4.2% 8.2%

Retail Unit Sales

Manufacturer Nov 2019 Forecast Nov 2018 Actual Oct 2019 Actual YOY % Change YOY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) MOM % Change MOM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 31,920 31,437 26,226 1.5% -2.4% 21.7% 26.4%
Daimler 33,296 30,402 31,123 9.5% 5.3% 7.0% 11.1%
FCA 137,131 135,847 126,104 0.9% -2.9% 8.7% 12.9%
Ford 142,419 146,394 141,545 -2.7% -6.5% 0.6% 4.5%
GM 190,567 196,622 155,008 -3.1% -6.8% 22.9% 27.7%
Honda 129,334 119,895 130,538 7.9% 3.7% -0.9% 2.9%
Hyundai 54,383 46,858 47,602 16.1% 11.6% 14.2% 18.6%
Kia 40,364 38,336 44,669 5.3% 1.2% -9.6% -6.2%
Nissan 80,957 89,963 85,659 -10.0% -13.5% -5.5% -1.9%
Subaru 55,500 54,986 53,681 0.9% -2.9% 3.4% 7.4%
Tesla 15,502 16,800 14,000 -7.7% -11.3% 10.7% 15.0%
Toyota 183,611 176,926 181,262 3.8% -0.2% 1.3% 5.2%
Volkswagen Group 49,007 47,694 50,632 2.8% -1.2% -3.2% 0.5%
Industry 1,193,462 1,178,712 1,134,272 1.3% -2.6% 5.2% 9.3%

Fleet Unit Sales

Manufacturer Nov 2019 Forecast Nov 2018 Actual Oct 2019 Actual YOY % Change YOY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) MOM % Change MOM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 2,766 518 2,292 434.1% 413.5% 20.7% 25.3%
Daimler 2,076 2,577 1,007 -19.4% -22.5% 106.1% 114.1%
FCA 34,021 45,463 51,016 -25.2% -28.0% -33.3% -30.7%
Ford 47,716 48,861 52,026 -2.3% -6.1% -8.3% -4.8%
GM 55,167 52,055 54,862 6.0% 1.9% 0.6% 4.4%
Honda 3,044 639 905 376.4% 358.0% 236.5% 249.4%
Hyundai 10,072 10,641 11,427 -5.3% -9.0% -11.9% -8.5%
Kia 9,402 6,765 5,338 39.0% 33.6% 76.1% 82.9%
Nissan 19,702 20,550 17,904 -4.1% -7.8% 10.0% 14.3%
Subaru 1,890 1,796 1,850 5.2% 1.2% 2.2% 6.1%
Tesla
Toyota 15,552 13,497 7,525 15.2% 10.8% 106.7% 114.6%
Volkswagen Group 2,310 2,218 2,435 4.1% 0.1% -5.1% -1.5%
Industry 206,177 208,365 209,570 -1.1% -4.9% -1.6% 2.2%

Fleet Penetration

Manufacturer Nov 2019 Forecast Nov 2018 Actual Oct 2019 Actual YOY % Change MOM % Change
BMW 8.0% 1.6% 8.0% 392.0% -0.8%
Daimler 5.9% 7.8% 3.1% -24.9% 87.2%
FCA 19.9% 25.1% 28.8% -20.7% -31.0%
Ford 25.1% 25.0% 26.9% 0.3% -6.6%
GM 22.4% 20.9% 26.1% 7.2% -14.1%
Honda 2.3% 0.5% 0.7% 333.7% 234.1%
Hyundai 15.6% 18.5% 19.4% -15.6% -19.3%
Kia 18.9% 15.0% 10.7% 25.9% 77.0%
Nissan 19.6% 18.6% 17.3% 5.3% 13.2%
Subaru 3.3% 3.2% 3.3% 4.1% -1.1%
Tesla
Toyota 7.8% 7.1% 4.0% 10.2% 95.9%
Volkswagen Group 4.5% 4.4% 4.6% 1.3% -1.9%
Industry 14.7% 15.0% 15.6% -1.9% -5.5%

Total Market Share

Manufacturer Nov 2019 Forecast Nov 2018 Actual Oct 2019 Actual
BMW 2.5% 2.3% 2.1%
Daimler 2.5% 2.4% 2.4%
FCA 12.2% 13.1% 13.2%
Ford 13.6% 14.1% 14.4%
GM 17.6% 17.9% 15.6%
Honda 9.5% 8.7% 9.8%
Hyundai 4.6% 4.1% 4.4%
Kia 3.6% 3.3% 3.7%
Nissan 7.2% 8.0% 7.7%
Subaru 4.1% 4.1% 4.1%
Tesla 1.1% 1.2% 1.0%
Toyota 14.2% 13.7% 14.0%
Volkswagen Group 3.7% 3.6% 3.9%

Retail Market Share

Manufacturer Nov 2019 Forecast Nov 2018 Actual Oct 2019 Actual
BMW 2.7% 2.7% 2.3%
Daimler 2.8% 2.6% 2.7%
FCA 11.5% 11.5% 11.1%
Ford 11.9% 12.4% 12.5%
GM 16.0% 16.7% 13.7%
Honda 10.8% 10.2% 11.5%
Hyundai 4.6% 4.0% 4.2%
Kia 3.4% 3.3% 3.9%
Nissan 6.8% 7.6% 7.6%
Subaru 4.7% 4.7% 4.7%
Tesla 1.3% 1.4% 1.2%
Toyota 15.4% 15.0% 16.0%
Volkswagen Group 4.1% 4.0% 4.5%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the TrueCar Inc.’s operations.)

About TrueCar

TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) is a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars and enables consumers to engage with TrueCar Certified Dealers who are committed to providing a superior purchase experience. TrueCar operates its own branded site and its nationwide network of more than 16,000 Certified Dealers also powers car-buying programs for some of the largest U.S. membership and service organizations, including USAA, AARP, American Express, AAA and Sam's Club. Over half of all new car buyers engage with the TrueCar network during their purchasing process. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in San Francisco and Austin, Texas.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) Email: pressinquiries@truecar.com

About ALG

Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 55 years and in Canada since 1981.

TrueCar and ALG PR Contact: Shadee Malekafzali shadee@truecar.com