TrueCar’s ALG Forecasts New Car Auto Sales Increase for the Third Quarter; Annual SAAR Remains on Pace for 17M Units
Category:Press Releases
Post by:ALG
SANTA MONICA, Calif., (Sept 25, 2019) – TrueCar, Inc.’s (NASDAQ: TRUE) data and analytics subsidiary, ALG, projects total new vehicle sales will reach 1,288,972 units in September, down 2.2% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days. For the third quarter, total vehicle sales are forecasted to be 4,334,457 units, up 1% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days, which would mark the first quarter in 2019 to show an increase in sales year-over-year. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 17.4 million units, with ALG projecting 2019 new car sales to continue to stay on course to reach 17M units as initially forecasted in January. Excluding fleet sales, ALG expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,075,416 million units, a decrease of 4.4% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
“Despite a slight rebound in consumer confidence in September, overall auto sales are expected to decline given that Labor Day weekend fell into August this year,” said Oliver Strauss, Chief Economist for ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar. “Nevertheless, the third quarter was up and auto sales remain on pace to hit 17 million units for 2019 aided by more fleet and incremental incentives.”
Additional Takeaways & Trends: (Forecasted by ALG)
Month:
Hyundai stood out for sales growth up 9.2% for total unit sales and 7.5% for
retail sales year-over-year, continuing to see strong performance in its
all-new Palisade model.
Despite having no product launches, Honda is also expected to be up 7.4% on
total vehicle sales and 6.6% on retail sales year-over-year, aided by strong
Civic performance as well as increased incentive spend and fleet sales.
Tesla continues to show strong sales growth, up 26.7% in total units
year-over-year spurred by enduring popularity from its Model 3.
Automaker average incentive spend should reach $3,975, up 4.9% or $184
dollars year-over-year, and up 0.3% or $12 from August 2019. The most
notable declines in incentive spend are expected from Daimler, down 9.6%,
Hyundai, down 7.5% and BMW, down 6.5%. Meanwhile Subaru is expected to raise
incentives by 48.5%, GM, by 16.8%, and Honda by 14.7%.
“Subaru has long been an all-star when it comes to incentives discipline, and while the YoY spending is up nearly 50%, with an aging portfolio and new entries in hyper-competitive segments, the brand is still performing as the industry’s MVP with regards to vehicle discounting.”
Average transaction price (ATP) should continue to rise, up 2% or $672
year-over-year. ATP is expected to increase for the 9th consecutive month
this year when compared to the prior year.
Incentives as a percentage of average transaction price are expected to be
11.5%, up 2.8% from a year ago and down 0.8% from August 2019.
In ALG’s brand strength metric, Retail Health Index (RHI), BMW and
Mercedes-Benz stood out, driven by lower incentives and strong new product
performance in the BMW X7, Mercedes-Benz GLS and CLS.
Used vehicle sales for September are expected to reach 3,415,427 up 3.4%
from a year ago and up 0.1% from August 2019
“Mercedes-Benz and BMW are growing retail share while simultaneously pulling back on incentives, a feat that is boosting performance in our Retail Health Index,” said Eric Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst at ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar. “Historically, these German rivals kick their sales efforts into overdrive in Q4, but new product, rather than discounting, could be the catalyst for strong market performance as we enter the final stretch of 2019.”
Third Quarter:
Retail unit sales for the quarter should reach 3,767,621, down 3.1% compared
with the same period last year adjusted for the same number of selling days.
TrueCar and ALG also assessed brand retention performance through the
replacement vehicle indicated via TrueCar’s consumer{" "}
trade experience for Q3.
Toyota had the highest indicated brand retention at 43%. Honda and
Chevrolet tied for second at 42% followed by Subaru at 40% and Ram at 37%
At the model level, the Chevrolet Corvette had the highest indicate brand
retention at 49% followed by the Subaru Forester and the Jeep Wrangler
Unlimited each with 29%
Used vehicle sales for the third quarter are expected to reach 10,260,316 up
1.8% year-over-year and down 3.9% from Q2 2019.
Retail Health Index (Forecast)
RHI measures the changes in retail market share relative to changes in incentive spending and transaction price to gauge whether OEMs are “buying” retail share through increased incentives, or whether share increases are largely demand-driven. An OEM with a positive RHI score is demonstrating a healthy balance of incentive spend relative to market share, either by holding incentive spending flat and increasing share or by increasing incentives with a higher positive increase in retail share.
RHI, Top 12 Manufacturers
Sep 2019 Forecast
YoY Change
MoM Change
BMW
1.8%
0.1%
Daimler
1.9%
0.1%
FCA
-0.5%
-0.3%
Ford
-0.5%
-0.7%
GM
0.1%
-0.2%
Honda
-0.5%
0.0%
Hyundai
3.4%
0.3%
Kia
3.5%
-0.3%
Nissan
-1.0%
-0.5%
Subaru
-0.4%
-0.4%
Toyota
-0.2%
0.2%
Volkswagen
0.9%
-0.4%
RHI, Luxury
Sep 2019 Forecast
YoY Change
MoM Change
Acura
-1.8%
0.1%
Alfa Romeo
0.8%
-0.2%
Audi
-3.0%
-1.0%
BMW
1.9%
0.0%
Cadillac
-2.8%
-1.3%
Genesis
-6.3%
-0.1%
INFINITI
-4.3%
-0.6%
Jaguar
-0.1%
-0.7%
Land Rover
-3.3%
-0.9%
Lexus
-0.3%
-0.3%
Lincoln
-0.4%
0.0%
Maserati
0.4%
0.0%
Mercedes-Benz
1.9%
0.1%
Porsche
0.8%
-0.1%
Volvo
-1.8%
-0.6%
RHI, Mainstream
Sep 2019 Forecast
YoY Change
MoM Change
Buick
-1.8%
-0.5%
Chevrolet
1.2%
-0.4%
Chrysler
0.1%
0.1%
Dodge
1.9%
-0.3%
Fiat
0.8%
-2.3%
Ford
-0.5%
-0.7%
GMC
-1.7%
0.5%
Honda
-0.4%
0.0%
Hyundai
3.7%
0.3%
Jeep
0.3%
-0.2%
Kia
3.5%
-0.3%
Mazda
1.8%
-0.4%
MINI
0.8%
0.2%
Mitsubishi
1.0%
-0.7%
Nissan
-0.7%
-0.5%
Ram
-2.6%
-0.3%
Smart
-28.2%
1.2%
Subaru
-0.4%
-0.4%
Toyota
-0.2%
0.3%
Volkswagen
2.9%
-0.1%
September 2019 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by volume: (Adjusted for same selling days as September 2018. Tesla forecast included since March 2019.)
Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer
Sep 2019 Forecast
Sep 2018 Actual
Aug 2019 Actual
YoY % Change
YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
MoM % Change
MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW
28,759
29,470
29,477
-2.4%
6.1%
-2.4%
18.8%
Daimler
25,338
30,715
30,218
-17.5%
-10.3%
-16.1%
2.1%
FCA
171,397
199,819
215,240
-14.2%
-6.8%
-20.4%
-3.1%
Ford
171,511
196,496
209,953
-12.7%
-5.1%
-18.3%
-0.6%
GM
214,346
234,043
289,475
-8.4%
-0.5%
-26.0%
-9.9%
Honda
131,043
132,668
173,993
-1.2%
7.4%
-24.7%
-8.3%
Hyundai
57,621
57,359
65,494
0.5%
9.2%
-12.0%
7.1%
Kia
47,729
51,503
60,730
-7.3%
0.7%
-21.4%
-4.3%
Nissan
105,158
122,819
127,230
-14.4%
-6.9%
-17.3%
0.6%
Subaru
49,558
57,044
70,039
-13.1%
-5.6%
-29.2%
-13.9%
Tesla
16,439
14,100
13,200
16.6%
26.7%
24.5%
51.6%
Toyota
182,979
203,098
248,334
-9.9%
-2.1%
-26.3%
-10.3%
Volkswagen Group
46,681
55,224
61,965
-15.5%
-8.1%
-24.7%
-8.3%
Industry
1,288,972
1,432,069
1,649,669
-10.0%
-2.2%
-21.9%
-4.9%
Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer
Sep 2019 Forecast
Sep 2018 Actual
Aug 2019 Actual
YoY % Change
YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
MoM % Change
MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW
25,014
28,117
26,106
-11.0%
-3.3%
-4.2%
16.6%
Daimler
24,258
28,714
29,018
-15.5%
-8.2%
-16.4%
1.8%
FCA
124,037
148,425
178,530
-16.4%
-9.2%
-30.5%
-15.4%
Ford
127,003
147,396
161,258
-13.8%
-6.3%
-21.2%
-4.1%
GM
161,300
180,812
242,166
-10.8%
-3.0%
-33.4%
-18.9%
Honda
128,035
130,505
172,911
-1.9%
6.6%
-26.0%
-9.9%
Hyundai
47,731
48,248
58,398
-1.1%
7.5%
-18.3%
-0.5%
Kia
38,082
43,070
52,416
-11.6%
-3.9%
-27.3%
-11.6%
Nissan
88,329
100,693
106,201
-12.3%
-4.7%
-16.8%
1.3%
Subaru
47,609
56,520
66,947
-15.8%
-8.4%
-28.9%
-13.4%
Tesla
16,439
14,100
13,200
16.6%
26.7%
24.5%
51.6%
Toyota
166,003
195,690
232,440
-15.2%
-7.8%
-28.6%
-13.1%
Volkswagen Group
42,824
53,038
57,743
-19.3%
-12.2%
-25.8%
-9.7%
Industry
1,075,416
1,222,243
1,449,233
-12.0%
-4.4%
-25.8%
-9.7%
Fleet Unit Sales
Manufacturer
Sep 2019 Forecast
Sep 2018 Actual
Aug 2019 Actual
YoY % Change
YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
MoM % Change
MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW
3,745
1,353
3,371
176.9%
200.9%
11.1%
35.3%
Daimler
1,080
2,001
1,200
-46.0%
-41.3%
-10.0%
9.6%
FCA
47,360
51,394
36,710
-7.8%
0.2%
29.0%
57.1%
Ford
44,508
49,100
48,695
-9.4%
-1.5%
-8.6%
11.3%
GM
53,046
53,231
47,309
-0.3%
8.3%
12.1%
36.5%
Honda
3,008
2,163
1,082
39.1%
51.1%
177.9%
238.3%
Hyundai
9,891
9,111
7,096
8.6%
18.0%
39.4%
69.7%
Kia
9,646
8,433
8,314
14.4%
24.3%
16.0%
41.3%
Nissan
16,829
22,126
21,029
-23.9%
-17.3%
-20.0%
-2.6%
Subaru
1,948
524
3,092
272.0%
304.3%
-37.0%
-23.3%
Tesla
-
-
-
Toyota
16,976
7,408
15,894
129.1%
149.1%
6.8%
30.0%
Volkswagen Group
3,858
2,186
4,222
76.5%
91.8%
-8.6%
11.2%
Industry
213,557
209,826
200,436
1.8%
10.6%
6.5%
29.7%
</table>
</div>
**Fleet Penetration**
Manufacturer
Sep 2019 Forecast
Sep 2018 Actual
Aug 2019 Actual
YoY % Change
MoM % Change
BMW
13.0%
4.6%
11.4%
183.7%
13.9%
Daimler
4.3%
6.5%
4.0%
-34.5%
7.3%
FCA
27.6%
25.7%
17.1%
7.4%
62.0%
Ford
26.0%
25.0%
23.2%
3.9%
11.9%
GM
24.7%
22.7%
16.3%
8.8%
51.4%
Honda
2.3%
1.6%
0.6%
40.8%
269.0%
Hyundai
17.2%
15.9%
10.8%
8.1%
58.4%
Kia
20.2%
16.4%
13.7%
23.4%
47.6%
Nissan
16.0%
18.0%
16.5%
-11.2%
-3.2%
Subaru
3.9%
0.9%
4.4%
328.2%
-10.9%
Tesla
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Toyota
9.3%
3.6%
6.4%
154.3%
45.0%
Volkswagen Group
8.3%
4.0%
6.8%
108.8%
21.3%
Industry
16.6%
14.7%
12.2%
13.1%
36.4%
</table>
</div>
**Total Market Share**
Manufacturer
Sep 2019 Forecast
Sep 2018 Actual
Aug 2019 Actual
BMW
2.2%
2.1%
1.8%
Daimler
2.0%
2.1%
1.8%
FCA
13.3%
14.0%
13.0%
Ford
13.3%
13.7%
12.7%
GM
16.6%
16.3%
17.5%
Honda
10.2%
9.3%
10.5%
Hyundai
4.5%
4.0%
4.0%
Kia
3.7%
3.6%
3.7%
Nissan
8.2%
8.6%
7.7%
Subaru
3.8%
4.0%
4.2%
Tesla
1.3%
1.0%
0.8%
Toyota
14.2%
14.2%
15.1%
Volkswagen Group
3.6%
3.9%
3.8%
**Retail Market Share**
Manufacturer
Sep 2019 Forecast
Sep 2018 Actual
Aug 2019 Actual
BMW
2.3%
2.3%
1.8%
Daimler
2.3%
2.3%
2.0%
FCA
11.5%
12.1%
12.3%
Ford
11.8%
12.1%
11.1%
GM
15.0%
14.8%
16.7%
Honda
11.9%
10.7%
11.9%
Hyundai
4.4%
3.9%
4.0%
Kia
3.5%
3.5%
3.6%
Nissan
8.2%
8.2%
7.3%
Subaru
4.4%
4.6%
4.6%
Tesla
1.5%
1.2%
0.9%
Toyota
15.4%
16.0%
16.0%
Volkswagen Group
4.0%
4.3%
4.0%
**Average transaction Price (ATP)**
Manufacturer
Sep 2019 Forecast
Sep 2018 Actual
Aug 2019 Actual
YoY
MoM
BMW
$54,463
$51,599
$52,750
5.6%
3.2%
Daimler
$57,165
$55,156
$55,391
3.6%
3.2%
FCA
$36,994
$34,948
$36,211
5.9%
2.2%
Ford
$39,062
$38,140
$38,400
2.4%
1.7%
GM
$38,751
$37,810
$38,323
2.5%
1.1%
Honda
$28,320
$29,022
$28,178
-2.4%
0.5%
Hyundai
$24,213
$22,169
$24,800
9.2%
-2.4%
Kia
$24,266
$22,592
$24,006
7.4%
1.1%
Nissan
$26,939
$27,414
$27,199
-1.7%
-1.0%
Subaru
$29,500
$29,305
$29,322
0.7%
0.6%
Toyota
$32,261
$32,360
$32,673
-0.3%
-1.3%
Volkswagen Group
$41,612
$40,487
$40,640
2.8%
2.4%
Industry
$34,709
$34,038
$34,327
2.0%
1.1%
</table>
</div>
**Incentive Spending**
Manufacturer
Sep 2019 Forecast
Sep 2018 Actual
Aug 2019 Actual
YoY
MoM
BMW
$5,307
$5,676
$5,031
-6.5%
5.5%
Daimler
$5,372
$5,943
$5,326
-9.6%
0.9%
FCA
$5,055
$4,604
$4,933
9.8%
2.5%
Ford
$4,914
$4,776
$4,880
2.9%
0.7%
GM
$5,200
$4,451
$5,161
16.8%
0.8%
Honda
$2,336
$2,036
$2,349
14.7%
-0.5%
Hyundai
$2,655
$2,869
$2,617
-7.5%
1.5%
Kia
$3,619
$3,792
$3,581
-4.6%
1.1%
Nissan
$4,589
$4,468
$4,667
2.7%
-1.7%
Subaru
$1,860
$1,252
$1,914
48.5%
-2.8%
Toyota
$2,743
$2,645
$2,807
3.7%
-2.3%
Volkswagen Group
$3,607
$3,844
$3,768
-6.2%
-4.3%
Industry
$3,975
$3,791
$3,964
4.9%
0.3%
</table>
</div>
**Incentives as % of ATP**
Manufacturer
Sep 2019 Forecast
Sep 2018 Actual
Aug 2019 Actual
YoY
MoM
BMW
9.7%
11.0%
9.5%
-11.4%
2.2%
Daimler
9.4%
10.8%
9.6%
-12.8%
-2.3%
FCA
13.7%
13.2%
13.6%
3.7%
0.3%
Ford
12.6%
12.5%
12.7%
0.5%
-1.0%
GM
13.4%
11.8%
13.5%
14.0%
-0.4%
Honda
8.2%
7.0%
8.3%
17.6%
-1.0%
Hyundai
11.0%
12.9%
10.6%
-15.3%
3.9%
Kia
14.9%
16.8%
14.9%
-11.1%
0.0%
Nissan
17.0%
16.3%
17.2%
4.5%
-0.7%
Subaru
6.3%
4.3%
6.5%
47.6%
-3.4%
Toyota
8.5%
8.2%
8.6%
4.0%
-1.0%
Volkswagen Group
8.7%
9.5%
9.3%
-8.7%
-6.5%
Industry
11.5%
11.1%
11.5%
2.8%
-0.8%
**Total Unit Sales, Quarterly**
Manufacturer
Q3 2019
Q3 2018
Q2 2019
YoY % Change
YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
QoQ % Change
QoQ % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW
84,204
83,599
91,230
0.7%
0.7%
-7.7%
-6.5%
Daimler
83,102
77,965
85,039
6.6%
6.6%
-2.3%
-1.0%
FCA
555,187
564,507
590,045
-1.7%
-1.7%
-5.9%
-4.7%
Ford
574,184
606,939
644,498
-5.4%
-5.4%
-10.9%
-9.7%
GM
740,330
694,054
744,316
6.7%
6.7%
-0.5%
0.8%
Honda
446,341
419,173
407,208
6.5%
6.5%
9.6%
11.1%
Hyundai
182,064
166,653
191,548
9.2%
9.2%
-5.0%
-3.7%
Kia
161,864
158,479
168,248
2.1%
2.1%
-3.8%
-2.5%
Nissan
331,268
343,987
351,185
-3.7%
-3.7%
-5.7%
-4.4%
Subaru
183,703
180,558
182,771
1.7%
1.7%
0.5%
1.8%
Tesla
42,439
38,800
34,150
9.4%
9.4%
24.3%
25.9%
Toyota
640,517
634,923
608,392
0.9%
0.9%
5.3%
6.7%
Volkswagen Group
164,528
166,799
161,639
-1.4%
-1.4%
1.8%
3.1%
Industry
4,334,457
4,290,142
4,431,851
1.0%
1.0%
-2.2%
-0.9%
**Retail Unit Sales, Quarterly**
Manufacturer
Q3 2019
Q3 2018
Q2 2019
YoY % Change
YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
QoQ % Change
QoQ % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW
73,082
75,336
79,790
-3.0%
-3.0%
-8.4%
-7.2%
Daimler
79,032
73,923
77,930
6.9%
6.9%
1.4%
2.7%
FCA
443,624
497,521
454,044
-10.8%
-10.8%
-2.3%
-1.0%
Ford
445,207
530,673
435,003
-16.1%
-16.1%
2.3%
3.7%
GM
609,205
602,178
594,053
1.2%
1.2%
2.6%
3.9%
Honda
440,502
411,735
398,209
7.0%
7.0%
10.6%
12.1%
Hyundai
159,130
151,673
140,406
4.9%
4.9%
13.3%
14.8%
Kia
139,687
133,752
129,235
4.4%
4.4%
8.1%
9.5%
Nissan
276,749
296,312
243,754
-6.6%
-6.6%
13.5%
15.0%
Subaru
177,175
176,917
166,222
0.1%
0.1%
6.6%
8.0%
Tesla
42,439
38,800
34,150
9.4%
9.4%
24.3%
25.9%
Toyota
592,870
596,436
532,577
-0.6%
-0.6%
11.3%
12.8%
Volkswagen Group
151,751
159,204
143,648
-4.7%
-4.7%
5.6%
7.0%
Industry
3,767,621
3,888,598
3,575,979
-3.1%
-3.1%
5.4%
6.7%
**Total Market Share, Quarterly**
Manufacturer
Q3 2019
Q3 2018
Q2 2019
BMW
1.9%
1.9%
2.1%
Daimler
1.9%
1.8%
1.9%
FCA
12.8%
13.2%
13.3%
Ford
13.2%
14.1%
14.5%
GM
17.1%
16.2%
16.8%
Honda
10.3%
9.8%
9.2%
Hyundai
4.2%
3.9%
4.3%
Kia
3.7%
3.7%
3.8%
Nissan
7.6%
8.0%
7.9%
Subaru
4.2%
4.2%
4.1%
Tesla
1.0%
0.9%
0.8%
Toyota
14.8%
14.8%
13.7%
Volkswagen Group
3.8%
3.9%
3.6%
**Retail Market Share, Quarterly**
Manufacturer
Q3 2019
Q3 2018
Q2 2019
BMW
1.9%
1.9%
2.2%
Daimler
2.1%
1.9%
2.2%
FCA
11.8%
12.8%
12.7%
Ford
11.8%
13.6%
12.2%
GM
16.2%
15.5%
16.6%
Honda
11.7%
10.6%
11.1%
Hyundai
4.2%
3.9%
3.9%
Kia
3.7%
3.4%
3.6%
Nissan
7.3%
7.6%
6.8%
Subaru
4.7%
4.5%
4.6%
Tesla
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
Toyota
15.7%
15.3%
14.9%
Volkswagen Group
4.0%
4.1%
4.0%
**(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company's operations.)**
_TrueCar Trade data reflects consumers trading in a vehicle and the percentage that chose the same brand when indicating a replacement vehicle. The replacement vehicle was not necessarily a new car. Data sourced Aug 2018 vs. Aug 1-26th 2019._
**About TrueCar**
TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: [TRUE](https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/true)) is a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars and enables consumers to engage with TrueCar Certified Dealers who are committed to providing a superior purchase experience. TrueCar operates its own branded site and its nationwide network of more than 16,000 Certified Dealers also powers car-buying programs for some of the largest U.S. membership and service organizations, including USAA, AARP, American Express, AAA and Sam's Club. Over half of all new car buyers engage with the TrueCar network during their purchasing process. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in San Francisco and Austin, Texas. For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) Email: pressinquiries@truecar.com
**About ALG**
Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 50 years and in Canada since 1981.
**TrueCar and ALG PR Contact:**
Shadee Malekafzali
shadee@truecar.com