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TrueCar’s ALG Forecasts New Car Auto Sales Increase for the Third Quarter; Annual SAAR Remains on Pace for 17M Units

  • Category: Press Releases
  • Post by: ALG

SANTA MONICA, Calif., (Sept 25, 2019) – TrueCar, Inc.’s (NASDAQ: TRUE) data and analytics subsidiary, ALG, projects total new vehicle sales will reach 1,288,972 units in September, down 2.2% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days. For the third quarter, total vehicle sales are forecasted to be 4,334,457 units, up 1% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days, which would mark the first quarter in 2019 to show an increase in sales year-over-year. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 17.4 million units, with ALG projecting 2019 new car sales to continue to stay on course to reach 17M units as initially forecasted in January. Excluding fleet sales, ALG expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,075,416 million units, a decrease of 4.4% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

“Despite a slight rebound in consumer confidence in September, overall auto sales are expected to decline given that Labor Day weekend fell into August this year,” said Oliver Strauss, Chief Economist for ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar. “Nevertheless, the third quarter was up and auto sales remain on pace to hit 17 million units for 2019 aided by more fleet and incremental incentives.”

Additional Takeaways & Trends: (Forecasted by ALG)

Month:

  • Hyundai stood out for sales growth up 9.2% for total unit sales and 7.5% for retail sales year-over-year, continuing to see strong performance in its all-new Palisade model.
  • Despite having no product launches, Honda is also expected to be up 7.4% on total vehicle sales and 6.6% on retail sales year-over-year, aided by strong Civic performance as well as increased incentive spend and fleet sales.
  • Tesla continues to show strong sales growth, up 26.7% in total units year-over-year spurred by enduring popularity from its Model 3.
  • Automaker average incentive spend should reach $3,975, up 4.9% or $184 dollars year-over-year, and up 0.3% or $12 from August 2019. The most notable declines in incentive spend are expected from Daimler, down 9.6%, Hyundai, down 7.5% and BMW, down 6.5%. Meanwhile Subaru is expected to raise incentives by 48.5%, GM, by 16.8%, and Honda by 14.7%.

“Subaru has long been an all-star when it comes to incentives discipline, and while the YoY spending is up nearly 50%, with an aging portfolio and new entries in hyper-competitive segments, the brand is still performing as the industry’s MVP with regards to vehicle discounting.”

  • Average transaction price (ATP) should continue to rise, up 2% or $672 year-over-year. ATP is expected to increase for the 9th consecutive month this year when compared to the prior year.
  • Incentives as a percentage of average transaction price are expected to be 11.5%, up 2.8% from a year ago and down 0.8% from August 2019.
  • In ALG’s brand strength metric, Retail Health Index (RHI), BMW and Mercedes-Benz stood out, driven by lower incentives and strong new product performance in the BMW X7, Mercedes-Benz GLS and CLS.
  • Used vehicle sales for September are expected to reach 3,415,427 up 3.4% from a year ago and up 0.1% from August 2019

“Mercedes-Benz and BMW are growing retail share while simultaneously pulling back on incentives, a feat that is boosting performance in our Retail Health Index,” said Eric Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst at ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar. “Historically, these German rivals kick their sales efforts into overdrive in Q4, but new product, rather than discounting, could be the catalyst for strong market performance as we enter the final stretch of 2019.”

Third Quarter:

  • Retail unit sales for the quarter should reach 3,767,621, down 3.1% compared with the same period last year adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • TrueCar and ALG also assessed brand retention performance through the replacement vehicle indicated via TrueCar’s consumer{" "} trade experience for Q3.
    • Toyota had the highest indicated brand retention at 43%. Honda and Chevrolet tied for second at 42% followed by Subaru at 40% and Ram at 37%
    • At the model level, the Chevrolet Corvette had the highest indicate brand retention at 49% followed by the Subaru Forester and the Jeep Wrangler Unlimited each with 29%
  • Used vehicle sales for the third quarter are expected to reach 10,260,316 up 1.8% year-over-year and down 3.9% from Q2 2019.

Retail Health Index (Forecast)

RHI measures the changes in retail market share relative to changes in incentive spending and transaction price to gauge whether OEMs are “buying” retail share through increased incentives, or whether share increases are largely demand-driven. An OEM with a positive RHI score is demonstrating a healthy balance of incentive spend relative to market share, either by holding incentive spending flat and increasing share or by increasing incentives with a higher positive increase in retail share.

RHI, Top 12 Manufacturers

Sep 2019 Forecast YoY Change MoM Change
BMW 1.8% 0.1%
Daimler 1.9% 0.1%
FCA -0.5% -0.3%
Ford -0.5% -0.7%
GM 0.1% -0.2%
Honda -0.5% 0.0%
Hyundai 3.4% 0.3%
Kia 3.5% -0.3%
Nissan -1.0% -0.5%
Subaru -0.4% -0.4%
Toyota -0.2% 0.2%
Volkswagen 0.9% -0.4%

RHI, Luxury

Sep 2019 Forecast YoY Change MoM Change
Acura -1.8% 0.1%
Alfa Romeo 0.8% -0.2%
Audi -3.0% -1.0%
BMW 1.9% 0.0%
Cadillac -2.8% -1.3%
Genesis -6.3% -0.1%
INFINITI -4.3% -0.6%
Jaguar -0.1% -0.7%
Land Rover -3.3% -0.9%
Lexus -0.3% -0.3%
Lincoln -0.4% 0.0%
Maserati 0.4% 0.0%
Mercedes-Benz 1.9% 0.1%
Porsche 0.8% -0.1%
Volvo -1.8% -0.6%

RHI, Mainstream

Sep 2019 Forecast YoY Change MoM Change
Buick -1.8% -0.5%
Chevrolet 1.2% -0.4%
Chrysler 0.1% 0.1%
Dodge 1.9% -0.3%
Fiat 0.8% -2.3%
Ford -0.5% -0.7%
GMC -1.7% 0.5%
Honda -0.4% 0.0%
Hyundai 3.7% 0.3%
Jeep 0.3% -0.2%
Kia 3.5% -0.3%
Mazda 1.8% -0.4%
MINI 0.8% 0.2%
Mitsubishi 1.0% -0.7%
Nissan -0.7% -0.5%
Ram -2.6% -0.3%
Smart -28.2% 1.2%
Subaru -0.4% -0.4%
Toyota -0.2% 0.3%
Volkswagen 2.9% -0.1%

September 2019 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by volume: (Adjusted for same selling days as September 2018. Tesla forecast included since March 2019.)

Total Unit Sales

Manufacturer Sep 2019 Forecast Sep 2018 Actual Aug 2019 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) MoM % Change MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 28,759 29,470 29,477 -2.4% 6.1% -2.4% 18.8%
Daimler 25,338 30,715 30,218 -17.5% -10.3% -16.1% 2.1%
FCA 171,397 199,819 215,240 -14.2% -6.8% -20.4% -3.1%
Ford 171,511 196,496 209,953 -12.7% -5.1% -18.3% -0.6%
GM 214,346 234,043 289,475 -8.4% -0.5% -26.0% -9.9%
Honda 131,043 132,668 173,993 -1.2% 7.4% -24.7% -8.3%
Hyundai 57,621 57,359 65,494 0.5% 9.2% -12.0% 7.1%
Kia 47,729 51,503 60,730 -7.3% 0.7% -21.4% -4.3%
Nissan 105,158 122,819 127,230 -14.4% -6.9% -17.3% 0.6%
Subaru 49,558 57,044 70,039 -13.1% -5.6% -29.2% -13.9%
Tesla 16,439 14,100 13,200 16.6% 26.7% 24.5% 51.6%
Toyota 182,979 203,098 248,334 -9.9% -2.1% -26.3% -10.3%
Volkswagen Group 46,681 55,224 61,965 -15.5% -8.1% -24.7% -8.3%
Industry 1,288,972 1,432,069 1,649,669 -10.0% -2.2% -21.9% -4.9%

Retail Unit Sales

Manufacturer Sep 2019 Forecast Sep 2018 Actual Aug 2019 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) MoM % Change MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 25,014 28,117 26,106 -11.0% -3.3% -4.2% 16.6%
Daimler 24,258 28,714 29,018 -15.5% -8.2% -16.4% 1.8%
FCA 124,037 148,425 178,530 -16.4% -9.2% -30.5% -15.4%
Ford 127,003 147,396 161,258 -13.8% -6.3% -21.2% -4.1%
GM 161,300 180,812 242,166 -10.8% -3.0% -33.4% -18.9%
Honda 128,035 130,505 172,911 -1.9% 6.6% -26.0% -9.9%
Hyundai 47,731 48,248 58,398 -1.1% 7.5% -18.3% -0.5%
Kia 38,082 43,070 52,416 -11.6% -3.9% -27.3% -11.6%
Nissan 88,329 100,693 106,201 -12.3% -4.7% -16.8% 1.3%
Subaru 47,609 56,520 66,947 -15.8% -8.4% -28.9% -13.4%
Tesla 16,439 14,100 13,200 16.6% 26.7% 24.5% 51.6%
Toyota 166,003 195,690 232,440 -15.2% -7.8% -28.6% -13.1%
Volkswagen Group 42,824 53,038 57,743 -19.3% -12.2% -25.8% -9.7%
Industry 1,075,416 1,222,243 1,449,233 -12.0% -4.4% -25.8% -9.7%

Fleet Unit Sales

</table> </div> **Fleet Penetration**
Manufacturer Sep 2019 Forecast Sep 2018 Actual Aug 2019 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) MoM % Change MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 3,745 1,353 3,371 176.9% 200.9% 11.1% 35.3%
Daimler 1,080 2,001 1,200 -46.0% -41.3% -10.0% 9.6%
FCA 47,360 51,394 36,710 -7.8% 0.2% 29.0% 57.1%
Ford 44,508 49,100 48,695 -9.4% -1.5% -8.6% 11.3%
GM 53,046 53,231 47,309 -0.3% 8.3% 12.1% 36.5%
Honda 3,008 2,163 1,082 39.1% 51.1% 177.9% 238.3%
Hyundai 9,891 9,111 7,096 8.6% 18.0% 39.4% 69.7%
Kia 9,646 8,433 8,314 14.4% 24.3% 16.0% 41.3%
Nissan 16,829 22,126 21,029 -23.9% -17.3% -20.0% -2.6%
Subaru 1,948 524 3,092 272.0% 304.3% -37.0% -23.3%
Tesla - - -
Toyota 16,976 7,408 15,894 129.1% 149.1% 6.8% 30.0%
Volkswagen Group 3,858 2,186 4,222 76.5% 91.8% -8.6% 11.2%
Industry 213,557 209,826 200,436 1.8% 10.6% 6.5% 29.7%
</table> </div> **Total Market Share**
Manufacturer Sep 2019 Forecast Sep 2018 Actual Aug 2019 Actual YoY % Change MoM % Change
BMW 13.0% 4.6% 11.4% 183.7% 13.9%
Daimler 4.3% 6.5% 4.0% -34.5% 7.3%
FCA 27.6% 25.7% 17.1% 7.4% 62.0%
Ford 26.0% 25.0% 23.2% 3.9% 11.9%
GM 24.7% 22.7% 16.3% 8.8% 51.4%
Honda 2.3% 1.6% 0.6% 40.8% 269.0%
Hyundai 17.2% 15.9% 10.8% 8.1% 58.4%
Kia 20.2% 16.4% 13.7% 23.4% 47.6%
Nissan 16.0% 18.0% 16.5% -11.2% -3.2%
Subaru 3.9% 0.9% 4.4% 328.2% -10.9%
Tesla 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Toyota 9.3% 3.6% 6.4% 154.3% 45.0%
Volkswagen Group 8.3% 4.0% 6.8% 108.8% 21.3%
Industry 16.6% 14.7% 12.2% 13.1% 36.4%
Manufacturer Sep 2019 Forecast Sep 2018 Actual Aug 2019 Actual
BMW 2.2% 2.1% 1.8%
Daimler 2.0% 2.1% 1.8%
FCA 13.3% 14.0% 13.0%
Ford 13.3% 13.7% 12.7%
GM 16.6% 16.3% 17.5%
Honda 10.2% 9.3% 10.5%
Hyundai 4.5% 4.0% 4.0%
Kia 3.7% 3.6% 3.7%
Nissan 8.2% 8.6% 7.7%
Subaru 3.8% 4.0% 4.2%
Tesla 1.3% 1.0% 0.8%
Toyota 14.2% 14.2% 15.1%
Volkswagen Group 3.6% 3.9% 3.8%
**Retail Market Share**
Manufacturer Sep 2019 Forecast Sep 2018 Actual Aug 2019 Actual
BMW 2.3% 2.3% 1.8%
Daimler 2.3% 2.3% 2.0%
FCA 11.5% 12.1% 12.3%
Ford 11.8% 12.1% 11.1%
GM 15.0% 14.8% 16.7%
Honda 11.9% 10.7% 11.9%
Hyundai 4.4% 3.9% 4.0%
Kia 3.5% 3.5% 3.6%
Nissan 8.2% 8.2% 7.3%
Subaru 4.4% 4.6% 4.6%
Tesla 1.5% 1.2% 0.9%
Toyota 15.4% 16.0% 16.0%
Volkswagen Group 4.0% 4.3% 4.0%
**Average transaction Price (ATP)**
</table> </div> **Incentive Spending**
Manufacturer Sep 2019 Forecast Sep 2018 Actual Aug 2019 Actual YoY MoM
BMW $54,463 $51,599 $52,750 5.6% 3.2%
Daimler $57,165 $55,156 $55,391 3.6% 3.2%
FCA $36,994 $34,948 $36,211 5.9% 2.2%
Ford $39,062 $38,140 $38,400 2.4% 1.7%
GM $38,751 $37,810 $38,323 2.5% 1.1%
Honda $28,320 $29,022 $28,178 -2.4% 0.5%
Hyundai $24,213 $22,169 $24,800 9.2% -2.4%
Kia $24,266 $22,592 $24,006 7.4% 1.1%
Nissan $26,939 $27,414 $27,199 -1.7% -1.0%
Subaru $29,500 $29,305 $29,322 0.7% 0.6%
Toyota $32,261 $32,360 $32,673 -0.3% -1.3%
Volkswagen Group $41,612 $40,487 $40,640 2.8% 2.4%
Industry $34,709 $34,038 $34,327 2.0% 1.1%
</table> </div> **Incentives as % of ATP**
Manufacturer Sep 2019 Forecast Sep 2018 Actual Aug 2019 Actual YoY MoM
BMW $5,307 $5,676 $5,031 -6.5% 5.5%
Daimler $5,372 $5,943 $5,326 -9.6% 0.9%
FCA $5,055 $4,604 $4,933 9.8% 2.5%
Ford $4,914 $4,776 $4,880 2.9% 0.7%
GM $5,200 $4,451 $5,161 16.8% 0.8%
Honda $2,336 $2,036 $2,349 14.7% -0.5%
Hyundai $2,655 $2,869 $2,617 -7.5% 1.5%
Kia $3,619 $3,792 $3,581 -4.6% 1.1%
Nissan $4,589 $4,468 $4,667 2.7% -1.7%
Subaru $1,860 $1,252 $1,914 48.5% -2.8%
Toyota $2,743 $2,645 $2,807 3.7% -2.3%
Volkswagen Group $3,607 $3,844 $3,768 -6.2% -4.3%
Industry $3,975 $3,791 $3,964 4.9% 0.3%
Manufacturer Sep 2019 Forecast Sep 2018 Actual Aug 2019 Actual YoY MoM
BMW 9.7% 11.0% 9.5% -11.4% 2.2%
Daimler 9.4% 10.8% 9.6% -12.8% -2.3%
FCA 13.7% 13.2% 13.6% 3.7% 0.3%
Ford 12.6% 12.5% 12.7% 0.5% -1.0%
GM 13.4% 11.8% 13.5% 14.0% -0.4%
Honda 8.2% 7.0% 8.3% 17.6% -1.0%
Hyundai 11.0% 12.9% 10.6% -15.3% 3.9%
Kia 14.9% 16.8% 14.9% -11.1% 0.0%
Nissan 17.0% 16.3% 17.2% 4.5% -0.7%
Subaru 6.3% 4.3% 6.5% 47.6% -3.4%
Toyota 8.5% 8.2% 8.6% 4.0% -1.0%
Volkswagen Group 8.7% 9.5% 9.3% -8.7% -6.5%
Industry 11.5% 11.1% 11.5% 2.8% -0.8%
**Total Unit Sales, Quarterly**
Manufacturer Q3 2019 Q3 2018 Q2 2019 YoY % Change YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) QoQ % Change QoQ % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 84,204 83,599 91,230 0.7% 0.7% -7.7% -6.5%
Daimler 83,102 77,965 85,039 6.6% 6.6% -2.3% -1.0%
FCA 555,187 564,507 590,045 -1.7% -1.7% -5.9% -4.7%
Ford 574,184 606,939 644,498 -5.4% -5.4% -10.9% -9.7%
GM 740,330 694,054 744,316 6.7% 6.7% -0.5% 0.8%
Honda 446,341 419,173 407,208 6.5% 6.5% 9.6% 11.1%
Hyundai 182,064 166,653 191,548 9.2% 9.2% -5.0% -3.7%
Kia 161,864 158,479 168,248 2.1% 2.1% -3.8% -2.5%
Nissan 331,268 343,987 351,185 -3.7% -3.7% -5.7% -4.4%
Subaru 183,703 180,558 182,771 1.7% 1.7% 0.5% 1.8%
Tesla 42,439 38,800 34,150 9.4% 9.4% 24.3% 25.9%
Toyota 640,517 634,923 608,392 0.9% 0.9% 5.3% 6.7%
Volkswagen Group 164,528 166,799 161,639 -1.4% -1.4% 1.8% 3.1%
Industry 4,334,457 4,290,142 4,431,851 1.0% 1.0% -2.2% -0.9%
**Retail Unit Sales, Quarterly**
Manufacturer Q3 2019 Q3 2018 Q2 2019 YoY % Change YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) QoQ % Change QoQ % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 73,082 75,336 79,790 -3.0% -3.0% -8.4% -7.2%
Daimler 79,032 73,923 77,930 6.9% 6.9% 1.4% 2.7%
FCA 443,624 497,521 454,044 -10.8% -10.8% -2.3% -1.0%
Ford 445,207 530,673 435,003 -16.1% -16.1% 2.3% 3.7%
GM 609,205 602,178 594,053 1.2% 1.2% 2.6% 3.9%
Honda 440,502 411,735 398,209 7.0% 7.0% 10.6% 12.1%
Hyundai 159,130 151,673 140,406 4.9% 4.9% 13.3% 14.8%
Kia 139,687 133,752 129,235 4.4% 4.4% 8.1% 9.5%
Nissan 276,749 296,312 243,754 -6.6% -6.6% 13.5% 15.0%
Subaru 177,175 176,917 166,222 0.1% 0.1% 6.6% 8.0%
Tesla 42,439 38,800 34,150 9.4% 9.4% 24.3% 25.9%
Toyota 592,870 596,436 532,577 -0.6% -0.6% 11.3% 12.8%
Volkswagen Group 151,751 159,204 143,648 -4.7% -4.7% 5.6% 7.0%
Industry 3,767,621 3,888,598 3,575,979 -3.1% -3.1% 5.4% 6.7%
**Total Market Share, Quarterly**
Manufacturer Q3 2019 Q3 2018 Q2 2019
BMW 1.9% 1.9% 2.1%
Daimler 1.9% 1.8% 1.9%
FCA 12.8% 13.2% 13.3%
Ford 13.2% 14.1% 14.5%
GM 17.1% 16.2% 16.8%
Honda 10.3% 9.8% 9.2%
Hyundai 4.2% 3.9% 4.3%
Kia 3.7% 3.7% 3.8%
Nissan 7.6% 8.0% 7.9%
Subaru 4.2% 4.2% 4.1%
Tesla 1.0% 0.9% 0.8%
Toyota 14.8% 14.8% 13.7%
Volkswagen Group 3.8% 3.9% 3.6%
**Retail Market Share, Quarterly**
Manufacturer Q3 2019 Q3 2018 Q2 2019
BMW 1.9% 1.9% 2.2%
Daimler 2.1% 1.9% 2.2%
FCA 11.8% 12.8% 12.7%
Ford 11.8% 13.6% 12.2%
GM 16.2% 15.5% 16.6%
Honda 11.7% 10.6% 11.1%
Hyundai 4.2% 3.9% 3.9%
Kia 3.7% 3.4% 3.6%
Nissan 7.3% 7.6% 6.8%
Subaru 4.7% 4.5% 4.6%
Tesla 1.1% 1.0% 1.0%
Toyota 15.7% 15.3% 14.9%
Volkswagen Group 4.0% 4.1% 4.0%
**(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company's operations.)** _TrueCar Trade data reflects consumers trading in a vehicle and the percentage that chose the same brand when indicating a replacement vehicle. The replacement vehicle was not necessarily a new car. Data sourced Aug 2018 vs. Aug 1-26th 2019._ **About TrueCar** TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: [TRUE](https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/true)) is a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars and enables consumers to engage with TrueCar Certified Dealers who are committed to providing a superior purchase experience. TrueCar operates its own branded site and its nationwide network of more than 16,000 Certified Dealers also powers car-buying programs for some of the largest U.S. membership and service organizations, including USAA, AARP, American Express, AAA and Sam's Club. Over half of all new car buyers engage with the TrueCar network during their purchasing process. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in San Francisco and Austin, Texas. For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) Email: pressinquiries@truecar.com **About ALG** Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 50 years and in Canada since 1981. **TrueCar and ALG PR Contact:** Shadee Malekafzali shadee@truecar.com