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TrueCar’s ALG Finds Automakers Poised to Finish the Year Strong with $56 Billion in Revenue in December

Average transaction prices likely to rise 1.3 percent

SANTA MONICA, Calif., (January 3, 2018) – TrueCar, Inc.'s (NASDAQ: TRUE) data and analytics subsidiary, ALG, projects U.S. revenue for new vehicle sales will reach $56 billion for the month of December, up 1.0 percent from a year ago.

ALG expects a gain of $560 million in revenue for automakers versus 2017. Additionally, incentive spending is projected to decline 5.6 percent year over year.

"The auto industry closed out 2018 on a high note with continued growth in average transaction prices and lower incentive spending in December," said Eric Lyman, chief industry analyst for TrueCar's ALG. "The performance overall for 2018 exceeded expectations with regards to pace of sales and retail indicators of ATPs and incentive spending. We also expect continued sales momentum as we are forecasting 17 million new vehicles and light trucks in 2019."

ALG estimates ATP for a new light vehicle was $35,145 in December, up 1.3 percent from a year ago. Average incentive spending per unit declined by $223 to $3,746. The ratio of incentive spending to ATP is expected to be 10.7 percent, down from 11.4 percent from a year ago.

"Hyundai and GM in particular showed significant improvement in incentive spending as a percentage of ATP, a sign of retail success with their overhauled light truck vehicles in their showrooms," Lyman continued.

Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer December 2018 Forecast December 2017 November 2018 YOY MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini) $54,046 $51,871 $53,350 4.2% 1.3%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) $62,519 $60,269 $63,055 3.7% -0.8%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) $36,133 $34,602 $35,665 4.4% 1.3%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln) $40,172 $38,158 $38,748 5.3% 3.7%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) $37,720 $38,367 $38,379 -1.7% -1.7%
Honda (Acura, Honda) $28,713 $28,789 $28,889 -0.3% -0.6%
Hyundai $22,792 $22,412 $22,560 1.7% 1.0%
Kia $22,827 $22,840 $22,750 -0.1% 0.3%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) $28,759 $28,323 $28,527 1.5% 0.8%
Subaru $29,463 $27,906 $29,207 5.6% 0.9%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) $33,019 $32,851 $32,725 0.5% 0.9%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) $37,775 $38,403 $37,188 -1.6% 1.6%
Industry $35,145 $34,685 $34,877 1.3% 0.8%

Incentive per Unit Spending

Manufacturer December 2018 Forecast December 2017 November 2018 YOY MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini) $5,348 $5,349 $5,463 0.0% -2.1%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) $6,231 $5,174 $6,542 20.4% -4.8%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) $4,386 $4,336 $4,373 1.1% 0.3%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln) $4,405 $4,431 $4,358 -0.6% 1.1%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) $4,652 $5,548 $4,586 -16.2% 1.4%
Honda (Acura, Honda) $2,103 $2,087 $2,041 0.8% 3.1%
Hyundai $2,548 $3,097 $2,532 -17.7% 0.7%
Kia $3,329 $3,447 $3,359 -3.4% -0.9%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) $4,573 $4,572 $4,574 0.0% 0.0%
Subaru $1,102 $1,257 $1,146 -12.3% -3.8%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) $2,558 $2,778 $2,572 -7.9% -0.6%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) $4,121 $3,774 $4,074 9.2% 1.1%
Industry $3,746 $3,968 $3,741 -5.6% 0.1%

Incentive Spending as a Percentage of ATP

Manufacturer December 2018 Forecast December 2017 November 2018 YOY MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini) 9.9% 10.3% 10.2% -4.1% -3.4%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) 10.0% 8.6% 10.4% 16.1% -3.9%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) 12.1% 12.5% 12.3% -3.1% -1.0%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln) 11.0% 11.6% 11.2% -5.6% -2.5%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) 12.3% 14.5% 11.9% -14.7% 3.2%
Honda (Acura, Honda) 7.3% 7.2% 7.1% 1.0% 3.7%
Hyundai 11.2% 13.8% 11.2% -19.1% -0.4%
Kia 14.6% 15.1% 14.8% -3.4% -1.2%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) 15.9% 16.1% 16.0% -1.5% -0.8%
Subaru 3.7% 4.5% 3.9% -16.9% -4.6%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) 7.7% 8.5% 7.9% -8.4% -1.4%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) 10.9% 9.8% 11.0% 11.0% -0.4%
Industry 10.7% 11.4% 10.7% -6.8% -0.6%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company's operations.)