"Heading into 2019, we are anticipating new vehicle sales to dip slightly by 1.3 percent year over year," said Oliver Strauss, chief economist for TrueCar's ALG. "We're expecting the sales pace to remain relatively unchanged compared to previous years reflecting continued consumer confidence, with U.S. auto sales projected to reach 17 million units."
"In addition to the auto industry remaining stable, economic fundamentals do not seem to indicate a pending recession in 2019. Unemployment rates are at a 49-year low, the housing market continues to perform well, the new tax code is likely driving short term growth and the stock market, while volatile in recent months, remains solid. These factors drive our 17 million unit new vehicle sales projection.
That said, adverse triggers such as interest rate policy, sustained stock market and housing market decline, or the lack of a satisfying resolution to international trade policy could put downward pressure on new vehicle sales," Strauss continued.
TrueCar’s ALG Forecast
|Forecast 2019||Actual 2018||YOY|
Average Transaction Price (Average Transaction Price)
|ATP 2019||ATP 2018||YOY|
Incentive per Unit Spending
|Incentives 2019||Incentive 2018||YOY|
(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company’s operations.)