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TrueCar’s ALG Forecasts New Car Auto Sales for March 2020 and the First Quarter

SANTA MONICA, Calif., (March 27, 2020) – ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar, and the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects total new vehicle sales will reach 941,735 units in March 2020, down 37% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 10.7 million units. Excluding fleet sales, ALG expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 656,343 units, a decrease of 38% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

"March is traditionally a strong retail month and was off to a good start. As we inched closer to the middle of the month and the Coronavirus was declared a global pandemic, that triggered unprecedented protective measures from local and federal governments, and we began to see a stark drop in auto sales," said Eric Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst at ALG.

"Economic uncertainty, coupled with health and safety concerns, have made consumers hesitant to visit dealer showrooms and make large purchases," added Lyman. "However, the industry is rapidly pivoting to remote retailing practices and automakers and lenders have launched deferment programs and steep incentives to help ease consumer apprehensions. These offerings should help buoy demand a bit in the short-term."

Additional Insights: (Forecast by ALG)

  • Total retail sales for March 2020 are expected to be down 42% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Fleet sales for March 2020 are expected to be down 12% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Total SAAR is expected to decrease 37.5% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days from 17.2 million units to 10.7 million units.
  • Used vehicle sales for March 2020 are expected to reach 2,707,235, down 29% from a year ago and down 24% from February 2020.
  • The average interest rates on new vehicle loans is 6.53%, based on TrueCar data.

"While new and used vehicle sales are both down year-over-year, used sales declines aren’t as steep, signaling a shift in demand to vehicles at lower price points," said Nick Woolard, Director of OEM and Affinity Partner Analytics at TrueCar. "As incentives surface to assist with new vehicle affordability and the price delta between new vehicles and recent model year used vehicles shrinks, we can expect to see the demand even out between new and used."

ALG’s Revised COVID-19 2020 New Vehicle Sales Forecast:


ALG Revises 2020 New Vehicle Sales Forecast Scenarios Based on Latest Impact of COVID-19

March 2020 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by volume: (Adjusted for same selling days as March 2019.)

Total Unit Sales

Manufacturer Mar 2020 Forecast Mar 2019 Actual Feb 2020 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) MoM % Change MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 20,901 36,148 27,476 -42.2% -37.6% -23.9% -20.9%
Daimler 17,839 30,627 26,088 -41.8% -37.1% -31.6% -28.9%
FCA 117,473 200,307 183,926 -41.4% -36.7% -36.1% -33.6%
Ford 138,914 230,382 189,561 -39.7% -34.9% -26.7% -23.8%
GM 159,282 271,205 238,448 -41.3% -36.6% -33.2% -30.5%
Honda 82,848 148,509 120,006 -44.2% -39.8% -31.0% -28.2%
Hyundai 36,985 62,627 54,600 -40.9% -36.2% -32.3% -29.6%
Kia 34,169 55,814 52,177 -38.8% -33.9% -34.5% -31.9%
Nissan 83,576 150,768 99,253 -44.6% -40.1% -15.8% -12.4%
Subaru 34,553 61,601 51,695 -43.9% -39.4% -33.2% -30.5%
Tesla 9,939 13,000 20,450 -23.5% -17.4% -51.4% -49.5%
Toyota 126,153 214,947 195,407 -41.3% -36.6% -35.4% -32.9%
Volkswagen Group 36,680 62,577 50,390 -41.4% -36.7% -27.2% -24.3%
Industry 941,735 1,608,662 1,373,324 -41.5% -36.8% -31.4% -28.7%

Retail Unit Sales

Manufacturer Mar 2020 Forecast Mar 2019 Actual Feb 2020 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) MoM % Change MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 19,084 35,078 25,949 -45.6% -41.2% -26.5% -23.5%
Daimler 13,371 28,767 23,734 -53.5% -49.8% -43.7% -41.4%
FCA 62,541 151,141 128,833 -58.6% -55.3% -51.5% -49.5%
Ford 90,954 133,947 133,421 -32.1% -26.7% -31.8% -29.1%
GM 115,705 225,578 167,530 -48.7% -44.6% -30.9% -28.2%
Honda 74,446 146,800 115,944 -49.3% -45.2% -35.8% -33.2%
Hyundai 21,713 47,194 40,427 -54.0% -50.3% -46.3% -44.1%
Kia 22,917 46,868 41,844 -51.1% -47.2% -45.2% -43.0%
Nissan 46,714 101,269 68,324 -53.9% -50.2% -31.6% -28.9%
Subaru 28,833 58,448 48,423 -50.7% -46.7% -40.5% -38.1%
Tesla 9,939 13,000 20,450 -23.5% -17.4% -51.4% -49.5%
Toyota 97,554 191,463 166,441 -49.0% -45.0% -41.4% -39.0%
Volkswagen Group 29,656 56,395 44,783 -47.4% -43.2% -33.8% -31.1%
Industry 665,343 1,292,614 1,078,492 -48.5% -44.4% -38.3% -35.8%

Fleet Unit Sales

Manufacturer Mar 2020 Forecast Mar 2019 Actual Feb 2020 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) MoM % Change MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 1,816 1,070 1,527 69.8% 83.4% 18.9% 23.7%
Daimler 4,469 1,860 2,354 140.2% 159.4% 89.8% 97.4%
FCA 54,932 49,166 55,093 11.7% 20.7% -0.3% 3.7%
Ford 47,960 96,435 56,140 -50.3% -46.3% -14.6% -11.2%
GM 43,577 45,627 70,918 -4.5% 3.1% -38.6% -36.1%
Honda 8,401 1,709 4,062 391.5% 430.8% 106.8% 115.1%
Hyundai 15,271 15,433 14,173 -1.0% 6.9% 7.7% 12.1%
Kia 11,252 8,946 10,333 25.8% 35.8% 8.9% 13.2%
Nissan 36,862 49,499 30,929 -25.5% -19.6% 19.2% 23.9%
Subaru 5,719 3,153 3,272 81.4% 95.9% 74.8% 81.8%
Tesla - - - - - - -
Toyota 28,599 23,484 28,966 21.8% 31.5% -1.3% 2.7%
Volkswagen Group 7,024 6,182 5,607 13.6% 22.7% 25.3% 30.3%
Industry 276,392 316,048 294,832 -12.5% -5.6% -6.3% -2.5%

Fleet Penetration

Manufacturer Mar 2020 Forecast Mar 2019 Actual Feb 2020 Actual YoY % Change MoM % Change
BMW 8.7% 3.0% 5.6% 193.7% 56.3%
Daimler 25.1% 6.1% 9.0% 312.4% 177.6%
FCA 46.8% 24.5% 30.0% 90.5% 56.1%
Ford 34.5% 41.9% 29.6% -17.5% 16.6%
GM 27.4% 16.8% 29.7% 62.6% -8.0%
Honda 10.1% 1.2% 3.4% 781.1% 199.6%
Hyundai 41.3% 24.6% 26.0% 67.6% 59.1%
Kia 32.9% 16.0% 19.8% 105.4% 66.3%
Nissan 44.1% 32.8% 31.2% 34.3% 41.5%
Subaru 16.6% 5.1% 6.3% 223.4% 161.6%
Tesla 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Toyota 22.7% 10.9% 14.8% 107.5% 52.9%
Volkswagen Group 19.1% 9.9% 11.1% 93.8% 72.1%
Industry 29.3% 19.6% 21.5% 49.4% 36.7%

Total Market Share

Manufacturer Mar 2020 Forecast Mar 2019 Actual Feb 2020 Actual
BMW 2.2% 2.2% 2.0%
Daimler 1.9% 1.9% 1.9%
FCA 12.5% 12.5% 13.4%
Ford 14.8% 14.3% 13.8%
GM 16.9% 16.9% 17.4%
Honda 8.8% 9.2% 8.7%
Hyundai 3.9% 3.9% 4.0%
Kia 3.6% 3.5% 3.8%
Nissan 8.9% 9.4% 7.2%
Subaru 3.7% 3.8% 3.8%
Tesla 1.1% 0.8% 1.5%
Toyota 13.4% 13.4% 14.2%
Volkswagen Group 3.9% 3.9% 3.7%

Retail Market Share

Manufacturer Mar 2020 Forecast Mar 2019 Actual Feb 2020 Actual
BMW 2.9% 2.7% 2.4%
Daimler 2.0% 2.2% 2.2%
FCA 9.4% 11.7% 11.9%
Ford 13.7% 10.4% 12.4%
GM 17.4% 17.5% 15.5%
Honda 11.2% 11.4% 10.8%
Hyundai 3.3% 3.7% 3.7%
Kia 3.4% 3.6% 3.9%
Nissan 7.0% 7.8% 6.3%
Subaru 4.3% 4.5% 4.5%
Tesla 1.5% 1.0% 1.9%
Toyota 14.7% 14.8% 15.4%
Volkswagen Group 4.5% 4.4% 4.2%

Quarterly tables Total Unit Sales, Quarterly

Manufacturer Q1 2020 Q1 2019 Q4 2019 YoY % Change YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) QoQ % Change QoQ % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 69,901 82,793 100,952 -15.6% -16.7% -30.8% -28.9%
Daimler 69,114 78,878 105,885 -12.4% -13.5% -34.7% -33.0%
FCA 438,415 500,870 538,710 -12.5% -13.6% -18.6% -16.5%
Ford 499,458 586,956 604,198 -14.9% -16.0% -17.3% -15.2%
GM 632,871 665,005 735,497 -4.8% -6.1% -14.0% -11.7%
Honda 304,421 369,787 420,752 -17.7% -18.8% -27.6% -25.7%
Hyundai 135,598 151,787 190,189 -10.7% -11.8% -28.7% -26.8%
Kia 126,607 136,596 149,788 -7.3% -8.5% -15.5% -13.3%
Nissan 262,624 365,851 309,353 -28.2% -29.2% -15.1% -12.9%
Subaru 132,532 156,754 177,167 -15.5% -16.6% -25.2% -23.2%
Tesla 49,190 46,900 48,239 4.9% 3.5% 2.0% 4.7%
Toyota 487,623 543,716 613,486 -10.3% -11.5% -20.5% -18.4%
Volkswagen Group 131,974 149,618 168,233 -11.8% -13.0% -21.6% -19.5%
Industry 3,340,326 3,835,511 4,300,460 -12.9% -14.1% -22.3% -20.3%

Retail Unit Sales, Quarterly

Manufacturer Q1 2020 Q1 2019 Q4 2019 YoY % Change YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) QoQ % Change QoQ % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 70,256 80,158 92,992 -12.4% -13.5% -24.4% -22.5%
Daimler 60,202 73,937 102,312 -18.6% -19.6% -41.2% -39.6%
FCA 274,885 377,632 406,214 -27.2% -28.2% -32.3% -30.5%
Ford 326,248 366,169 443,331 -10.9% -12.1% -26.4% -24.5%
GM 414,409 508,509 532,562 -18.5% -19.6% -22.2% -20.1%
Honda 297,439 366,537 416,814 -18.9% -19.9% -28.6% -26.8%
Hyundai 100,834 108,615 163,358 -7.2% -8.4% -38.3% -36.6%
Kia 101,592 108,963 131,832 -6.8% -8.0% -22.9% -20.9%
Nissan 177,832 247,219 270,912 -28.1% -29.0% -34.4% -32.6%
Subaru 122,901 147,682 171,157 -16.8% -17.9% -28.2% -26.3%
Tesla 49,190 46,900 48,239 4.9% 3.5% 2.0% 4.7%
Toyota 398,355 465,616 580,907 -14.4% -15.6% -31.4% -29.6%
Volkswagen Group 113,579 134,786 160,055 -15.7% -16.8% -29.0% -27.2%
Industry 2,507,723 3,032,723 3,678,198 -17.3% -18.4% -31.8% -30.0%

Total Market Share, Quarterly

Manufacturer Q1 2020 Q1 2019 Q4 2019
BMW 2.1% 2.2% 2.3%
Daimler 2.1% 2.1% 2.5%
FCA 13.1% 13.1% 12.5%
Ford 15.0% 15.3% 14.0%
GM 18.9% 17.3% 17.1%
Honda 9.1% 9.6% 9.8%
Hyundai 4.1% 4.0% 4.4%
Kia 3.8% 3.6% 3.5%
Nissan 7.9% 9.5% 7.2%
Subaru 4.0% 4.1% 4.1%
Tesla 1.5% 1.2% 1.1%
Toyota 14.6% 14.2% 14.3%
Volkswagen Group 4.0% 3.9% 3.9%

Retail Market Share, Quarterly

Manufacturer Q1 2020 Q1 2019 Q4 2019
BMW 2.8% 2.6% 2.5%
Daimler 2.4% 2.4% 2.8%
FCA 11.0% 12.5% 11.0%
Ford 13.0% 12.1% 12.1%
GM 16.5% 16.8% 14.5%
Honda 11.9% 12.1% 11.3%
Hyundai 4.0% 3.6% 4.4%
Kia 4.1% 3.6% 3.6%
Nissan 7.1% 8.2% 7.4%
Subaru 4.9% 4.9% 4.7%
Tesla 2.0% 1.5% 1.3%
Toyota 15.9% 15.4% 15.8%
Volkswagen Group 4.5% 4.4% 4.4%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the TrueCar Inc.’s operations.)

About ALG
Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 55 years and in Canada since 1981.

About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables car buyers to connect to our network of 16,500 Certified Dealers. We are building the industry’s most personalized and efficient car buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings and market context on new and used cars – all with a clear view of what’s a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great car buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers car-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam’s Club, and American Express. Nearly half of all new-car buyers engage with TrueCar powered sites, where they buy smarter and drive happier. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in Austin, Texas and Boston, Massachusetts.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free), Email: pr@truecar.com.

TrueCar and ALG PR Contact:
Shadee Malekafzali
shadee@truecar.com
424.258.8694