Thought Reports: The Road to 2030

Executive Summary

The dual trends of shared ownership and autonomous technology are transforming the dialogue about the auto industry. Though they haven’t yet impacted vehicle production, these themes loom ever larger for all involved in the business of personal transportation.

ALG and its parent company TrueCar sit at the intersection of these trends. As the forecasting division of TrueCar, ALG works closely with automakers, lenders, fleet operators, and insurers to plan for the future. Our independence affords us a unique perspective.

Instead of bringing more speculation to the conversation, we took a step back and created a model for U.S. vehicle demand that incorporates the impact of shared ownership and autonomous technology. This approach provides a framework for thinking about the future, and the flexibility to explore divergent scenarios. The outcomes are driven by just a handful of key assumptions about how people use vehicles.

The most extreme scenario in this Thought Report shows a 26 percent reduction in passenger vehicle demand by 2030, with higher use of AV technology slashing the number of units in operation, or what is often called the vehicle parc, by over 50 percent.

But our model also generates a scenario in which fully autonomous vehicles arrive and overall vehicle output remains the same. And if people increase their commuting distances and insist on single-occupancy trips in AVs, we may see a net increase in vehicle production.

While the future of personal mobility is decidedly uncertain, demand modeling and scenario planning shed light on the range of possibilities. We invite you to join us in exploring the future of our industry.

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