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ALG Expects Automaker Revenue to Jump to $51 Billion in May

Average transaction prices likely to rise 3.2 percent

SANTA MONICA, Calif., (June 1, 2018) - ALG, the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach $51 billion for the month of May, up 6.1 percent from a year ago.

ALG expects a gain of $2.9 billion in revenue for automakers versus 2017. Additionally, incentive spending is projected to increase 1.8 percent year over year and month over month.

"Plot lines are thickening as automakers deploy varying strategies in a strong and stable, but flat, sales environment for 2018," said Eric Lyman, ALG's chief industry analyst. "Nissan and Hyundai are maintaining sizeable year over year decreases in spending, right sizing their sales goals to drive long term brand health. Conversely, GM is expected to become the top spending automaker in the industry, surpassing the high dollar amounts seen by BMW and Daimler."

ALG estimates ATP for a new light vehicle was $33,149 in May, up 3.2 percent from a year ago. Average incentive spending per unit grew by $177 to $3,679. The ratio of incentive spending to ATP is expected to be 11.1 percent, up from 10.9 percent from a year ago.

Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer May 2018 Forecast May 2017 Apr. 2018 YOY MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini) $51,846 $52,391 $51,995 -1.0% -0.3%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) $58,408 $59,700 $59,721 -2.2% -2.2%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) $34,075 $32,759 $33,911 4.0% 0.5%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln) $36,391 $35,297 $36,855 3.1% -1.3%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) $36,446 $36,973 $36,224 -1.4% 0.6%
Honda (Acura, Honda) $27,497 $27,095 $27,825 1.5% -1.2%
Hyundai $22,223 $22,617 $22,576 -1.7% -1.6%
Kia $22,580 $22,595 $22,861 -0.1% -1.2%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) $27,664 $27,564 $27,678 0.4% 0.0%
Subaru $27,450 $27,530 $27,778 -0.3% -1.2%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) $31,675 $30,818 $32,050 2.8% -1.2%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) $35,663 $34,649 $36,555 2.9% -2.4%
Industry $33,149 $32,134 $33,435 3.2% -0.9%

Incentive per Unit Spending

Manufacturer May 2018 Forecast May 2017 Apr. 2018 YOY MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini) $5,315 $4,149 $5,503 28.1% -3.4%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) $5,488 $4,590 $5,745 19.6% -4.5%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) $4,371 $4,434 $4,359 -1.4% 0.3%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln) $4,226 $4,124 $4,406 2.5% -4.1%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) $5,518 $4,219 $5,239 30.8% 5.3%
Honda (Acura, Honda) $1,690 $2,048 $1,632 -17.5% 3.5%
Hyundai $2,751 $3,221 $2,755 -14.6% -0.1%
Kia $3,766 $3,358 $3,775 12.1% -0.2%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) $3,325 $4,114 $3,099 -19.2% 7.3%
Subaru $1,306 $995 $1,344 31.3% -2.8%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) $2,318 $2,591 $2,249 -10.5% 3.1%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) $3,650 $3,432 $3,598 6.3% 1.4%
Industry $3,679 $3,502 $3,644 5.0% 1.0%

Incentive Spending as a Percentage of ATP

Manufacturer May 2018 Forecast May 2017 Apr. 2018 YOY MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini) 10.3% 7.9% 10.6% 29.4% -3.1%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) 9.4% 7.7% 9.6% 22.2% -2.3%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) 12.8% 13.5% 12.9% -5.2% -0.2%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln) 11.6% 11.7% 12.0% -0.6% -2.9%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) 15.1% 11.4% 14.5% 32.7% 4.7%
Honda (Acura, Honda) 6.1% 7.6% 5.9% -18.7% 4.8%
Hyundai 12.4% 14.2% 12.2% -13.1% 1.4%
Kia 16.7% 14.9% 16.5% 12.2% 1.0%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) 12.0% 14.9% 11.2% -19.5% 7.3%
Subaru 4.8% 3.6% 4.8% 31.7% -1.6%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) 7.3% 8.4% 7.0% -13.0% 4.3%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) 10.2% 9.9% 9.8% 3.3% 4.0%
Industry 11.1% 10.9% 10.9% 1.8% 1.8%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company's operations.)