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ALG Expects Automakers to Reach $43 Billion in Revenue in February

Average transaction prices likely to rise 2.3 percent

SANTA MONICA, Calif., (March 1, 2018) - ALG, the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach $43 billion for the month of February, down 0.5 percent from a year ago.

ALG expects a loss of $218 million in revenue for automakers versus 2017. Additionally, incentive spending is projected to increase 5.3 percent year over year but is expected to decline by 1.9% versus January 2018

"The rising tide of incentive spending is finally turning, with a month over month decline for nearly every automaker," said Eric Lyman, ALG's chief industry analyst. "Increased discipline on incentive spending is a critical component of maintaining a healthy automotive industry and the collective pullback in February indicates continued strength of the new and used retail automotive landscape."

ALG estimates ATP for a new light vehicle was $33,458 in February, up 2.3 percent from a year ago. Average incentive spending per unit grew by $184 to $3,656. The ratio of incentive spending to ATP is expected to be 10.9 percent, up 2.9 percent from a year ago.

Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer Feb. 2018 Forecast Feb. 2017 Jan. 2018 YOY MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini) $51,860 $52,502 $52,260 -1.2% -0.8%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) $62,075 $59,088 $61,611 5.1% 0.8%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) $34,311 $33,317 $34,335 3.0% -0.1%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln) $37,201 $35,649 $37,561 4.4% -1.0%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) $36,268 $35,964 $36,523 0.8% -0.7%
Honda (Acura, Honda) $27,900 $27,391 $28,061 1.9% -0.6%
Hyundai $22,856 $23,290 $22,738 -1.9% 0.5%
Kia $23,141 $22,751 $23,095 1.7% 0.2%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) $28,019 $27,577 $27,470 1.6% 2.0%
Subaru $27,822 $27,878 $27,830 -0.2% 0.0%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) $32,137 $31,410 $31,797 2.3% 1.1%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) $34,325 $32,659 $33,810 5.1% 1.5%
Industry $33,458 $32,707 $33,427 2.3% 0.1%

Incentive per Unit Spending

Manufacturer Feb. 2018 Forecast Feb. 2017 Jan. 2018 YOY MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini) $5,191 $4,500 $5,318 15.4% -2.4%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) $4,872 $4,415 $5,230 10.4% -6.8%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) $4,313 $4,251 $4,334 1.5% -0.5%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln) $4,046 $4,093 $4,182 -1.2% -3.2%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) $4,955 $4,526 $5,193 9.5% -4.6%
Honda (Acura, Honda) $1,837 $2,159 $1,762 -14.9% 4.2%
Hyundai $2,691 $2,172 $2,751 23.9% -2.2%
Kia $3,789 $3,383 $3,851 12.0% -1.6%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) $4,101 $3,976 $4,104 3.1% -0.1%
Subaru $1,356 $896 $1,351 51.3% 0.3%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) $2,447 $2,154 $2,585 13.6% -5.3%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) $3,589 $3,474 $3,698 3.3% -3.0%
Industry $3,656 $3,472 $3,727 5.3% -1.9%

Incentive Spending as a Percentage of ATP

Manufacturer Feb. 2018 Forecast Feb. 2017 Jan. 2018 YOY MOM
BMW (BMW, Mini) 10.0% 8.6% 10.2% 16.8% -1.6%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart) 7.8% 7.5% 8.5% 5.1% -7.5%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat) 12.6% 12.8% 12.6% -1.5% -0.4%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln) 10.9% 11.5% 11.1% -5.3% -2.3%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC) 13.7% 12.6% 14.2% 8.6% -3.9%
Honda (Acura, Honda) 6.6% 7.9% 6.3% -16.5% 4.8%
Hyundai 11.8% 9.3% 12.1% 26.3% -2.7%
Kia 16.4% 14.9% 16.7% 10.1% -1.8%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti) 14.6% 14.4% 14.9% 1.5% -2.0%
Subaru 4.9% 3.2% 4.9% 51.6% 0.4%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota) 7.6% 6.9% 8.1% 11.1% -6.3%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen) 10.5% 10.6% 10.9% -1.7% -4.4%
Industry 10.9% 10.6% 11.2% 2.9% -2.0%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company's operations.)