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TrueCar’s ALG Forecasts New Car Auto Sales Down Slightly Yet Industry Stable Reaching Over 17M SAAR for Second Consecutive Month in 2019

Honda Breaks with Other Automakers, Raising Incentives as CR-V Battles All-New RAV4

SANTA MONICA, Calif., (April 25, 2019) – TrueCar, Inc.’s (NASDAQ: TRUE) data and analytics subsidiary, ALG, projects total new vehicle sales will reach 1,381,835 units in April, down 2% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of active selling days in 2018. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 17.1 million units for the month, the second consecutive month this year to reach the 17M SAAR milestone. Excluding fleet sales, ALG expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,113,309 units, a decrease of 5.4% from a year ago.

“In line with the trend this year, the auto industry continues to show some struggles in retail sales,” said Oliver Strauss, Chief Economist of TrueCar’s ALG. “Nevertheless, reaching 17M SAAR for the second consecutive month is an indicator of health and stability and consumers continue to remain confident in a robust economic environment.”

Average incentive spending by automakers should reach an estimated $3,488 per vehicle in April down $152 or 4.2% from a year ago, and down 4.2% from March 2019. For April, ALG estimates average transaction price (ATP) for new light vehicles was $34,319, up 2.9% from a year ago, while incentives as a percentage of ATP was at 10.2% down 6.9% year-over-year.

While most automakers continued the downward trend in incentive spending, Honda and Subaru bucked the trend and raised incentive spend this month.

“Honda’s flagship CR-V is likely increasing incentives in order to gain a pricing advantage over a newly re-designed RAV4,” said Cari Crane, Director of Industry Insights at TrueCar’s ALG. “This would indicate that the battle for the compact-SUV segment leader is already heating up.”

ALG’s Retail Health Index (RHI) assessed whether OEMs are gaining market share through consumer demand or through incentives. Luxury utility leaders Mercedes, BMW and Audi are all expected to be down in this month’s RHI.

“Tier one luxury brands may be raising incentives in order to hold market share and offset increases in ATP. Tariff uncertainty could also be playing into this decision, with automakers attempting to get ahead of tariff decisions that could drive down consumer demand,” added Crane.

Retail Health Index (Forecast)

RHI measures the changes in retail market share relative to changes in incentive spending and transaction price to gauge whether OEMs are “buying” retail share through increased incentives, or whether share increases are largely demand-driven. An OEM with a positive RHI score is demonstrating a healthy balance of incentive spend relative to market share, either by holding incentive spending flat and increasing share or by increasing incentives with a higher positive increase in retail share.

RHI, Top 12 Manufacturers

Apr 2019 Forecast YoY Change MoM Change
BMW -0.3% 1.1%
Daimler -3.3% 0.7%
FCA 0.9% -0.3%
Ford 0.2% 0.3%
GM 2.3% -2.2%
Honda -0.7% 0.7%
Hyundai 2.3% 0.6%
Kia 2.1% 1.2%
Nissan 0.6% 0.2%
Subaru 0.3% 0.0%
Toyota 1.1% 1.2%
Volkswagen Group 0.7% 0.3%

RHI, Luxury

Apr 2019 Forecast YoY Change MoM Change
Acura 1.2% 0.0%
Alfa Romeo -2.1% -0.4%
Audi -3.2% -0.8%
BMW -0.3% 1.2%
Cadillac 1.1% -1.1%
Genesis -6.3% 0.2%
Infiniti -1.4% 0.4%
Jaguar -3.4% -1.2%
Land Rover -0.8% -0.6%
Lexus -1.2% 0.3%
Lincoln 0.9% 0.9%
Maserati -0.4% 0.0%
Mercedes-Benz -3.2% 0.7%
Porsche 0.8% -0.3%
Volvo 1.1% 0.4%

RHI, Mainstream

Apr 2019 Forecast YoY Change MoM Change
Buick 1.5% 0.5%
Chevrolet 2.8% -3.0%
Chrysler -1.6% -0.5%
Dodge -1.6% 0.2%
Fiat 5.4% 0.2%
Ford 0.2% 0.2%
GMC 1.1% -0.6%
Honda -0.9% 0.8%
Hyundai 2.3% 0.6%
Jeep -1.0% 0.6%
Kia 2.1% 1.2%
Mazda 2.8% 0.7%
MINI -0.4% -0.5%
Mitsubishi 1.1% -0.7%
Nissan 0.8% 0.2%
Ram 4.2% -1.8%
Smart -31.2% 1.8%
Subaru 0.3% 0.0%
Toyota 1.5% 1.3%
Volkswagen 2.5% 0.9%

Total Unit Sales

Manufacturer Apr 2019 Forecast Apr 2018 Actual Mar 2019 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) MoM % Change MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 28,900 27,324 36,148 5.8% 1.5% -20.1% -23.3%
Daimler 29,229 30,115 30,627 -2.9% -6.8% -4.6% -8.4%
FCA 174,048 184,149 200,307 -5.5% -9.3% -13.1% -16.6%
Ford 196,313 203,856 230,382 -3.7% -7.6% -14.8% -18.2%
GM 240,568 236,116 271,205 1.9% -2.2% -11.3% -14.8%
Honda 133,168 125,701 148,509 5.9% 1.7% -10.3% -13.9%
Hyundai 57,158 55,035 61,177 3.9% -0.3% -6.6% -10.3%
Kia 53,551 50,585 55,814 5.9% 1.6% -4.1% -7.9%
Nissan 94,305 87,764 150,768 7.5% 3.2% -37.5% -40.0%
Subaru 56,108 53,170 61,601 5.5% 1.3% -8.9% -12.6%
Tesla 15,000 4,250 13,000 252.9% 238.8% 15.4% 10.8%
Toyota 195,521 192,348 214,947 1.6% -2.4% -9.0% -12.7%
Volkswagen Group 58,411 53,762 62,577 8.6% 4.3% -6.7% -10.4%
Industry 1,381,835 1,354,237 1,608,662 2.0% -2.0% -14.1% -17.5%

Retail Unit Sales

Manufacturer Apr 2019 Forecast Apr 2018 Actual Mar 2019 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) MoM % Change MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 26,878 26,759 35,019 0.4% -3.6% -23.2% -26.3%
Daimler 27,229 28,694 28,467 -5.1% -8.9% -4.3% -8.2%
FCA 131,044 150,305 155,138 -12.8% -16.3% -15.5% -18.9%
Ford 129,602 144,814 149,738 -10.5% -14.1% -13.4% -16.9%
GM 178,898 186,057 214,168 -3.8% -7.7% -16.5% -19.8%
Honda 130,042 124,502 145,723 4.4% 0.3% -10.8% -14.3%
Hyundai 44,083 44,535 50,798 -1.0% -5.0% -13.2% -16.7%
Kia 42,043 39,385 47,122 6.7% 2.5% -10.8% -14.3%
Nissan 73,597 64,508 93,142 14.1% 9.5% -21.0% -24.1%
Subaru 52,539 48,518 58,426 8.3% 4.0% -10.1% -13.7%
Tesla 15,000 4,250 13,000 252.9% 238.8% 15.4% 10.8%
Toyota 171,576 175,192 186,641 -2.1% -6.0% -8.1% -11.7%
Volkswagen Group 49,066 50,075 58,153 -2.0% -5.9% -15.6% -19.0%
Industry 1,113,309 1,130,107 1,293,727 -1.5% -5.4% -13.9% -17.4%

Fleet Unit Sales

Manufacturer Apr 2019 Forecast Apr 2018 Actual Mar 2019 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) MoM % Change MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 2,022 565 1,129 258.0% 243.7% 79.1% 72.0%
Daimler 2,000 1,421 2,160 40.7% 35.1% -7.4% -11.1%
FCA 43,009 33,844 45,169 27.1% 22.0% -4.8% -8.6%
Ford 66,711 59,042 80,644 13.0% 8.5% -17.3% -20.6%
GM 61,670 50,059 57,037 23.2% 18.3% 8.1% 3.8%
Honda 3,126 1,199 2,786 160.7% 150.3% 12.2% 7.7%
Hyundai 13,075 11,528 11,829 13.4% 8.9% 10.5% 6.1%
Kia 11,508 11,200 8,692 2.7% -1.4% 32.4% 27.1%
Nissan 20,708 23,256 57,626 -11.0% -14.5% -64.1% -65.5%
Subaru 3,569 4,652 3,175 -23.3% -26.4% 12.4% 7.9%
Tesla - - - - - - -
Toyota 23,945 17,156 28,306 39.6% 34.0% -15.4% -18.8%
Volkswagen Group 9,345 3,687 4,424 153.4% 143.3% 111.2% 102.8%
Industry 268,531 224,130 314,935 19.8% 15.0% -14.7% -18.1%

Fleet Penetration

Manufacturer Apr 2019 Forecast Apr 2018 Actual Mar 2019 Actual YoY % Change MoM % Change
BMW 7.0% 2.1% 3.1% 238.5% 124.1%
Daimler 6.8% 4.7% 7.1% 45.0% -3.0%
FCA 24.7% 18.4% 22.5% 34.5% 9.6%
Ford 34.0% 29.0% 35.0% 17.3% -2.9%
GM 25.6% 21.2% 21.0% 20.9% 21.9%
Honda 2.3% 1.0% 1.9% 146.1% 25.1%
Hyundai 22.9% 20.9% 19.3% 9.2% 18.3%
Kia 21.5% 22.1% 15.6% -2.9% 38.0%
Nissan 22.0% 26.5% 38.2% -17.1% -42.5%
Subaru 6.4% 8.7% 5.2% -27.3% 23.4%
Tesla - - - - -
Toyota 12.2% 8.9% 13.2% 37.3% -7.0%
Volkswagen Group 16.0% 6.9% 7.1% 133.3% 126.3%
Industry 19.4% 16.6% 19.6% 17.4% -0.7%

Total Market Share

Manufacturer Apr 2019 Forecast Apr 2018 Actual Mar 2019 Actual
BMW 2.1% 2.0% 2.2%
Daimler 2.1% 2.2% 1.9%
FCA 12.6% 13.6% 12.5%
Ford 14.2% 15.1% 14.3%
GM 17.4% 17.4% 16.9%
Honda 9.6% 9.3% 9.2%
Hyundai 4.1% 4.1% 3.8%
Kia 3.9% 3.7% 3.5%
Nissan 6.8% 6.5% 9.4%
Subaru 4.1% 3.9% 3.8%
Tesla 1.1% 0.3% 0.8%
Toyota 14.1% 14.2% 13.4%
Volkswagen Group 4.2% 4.0% 3.9%

Retail Market Share

Manufacturer Apr 2019 Forecast Apr 2018 Actual Mar 2019 Actual
BMW 2.4% 2.4% 2.7%
Daimler 2.4% 2.5% 2.2%
FCA 11.8% 13.3% 12.0%
Ford 11.6% 12.8% 11.6%
GM 16.1% 16.5% 16.6%
Honda 11.7% 11.0% 11.3%
Hyundai 4.0% 3.9% 3.9%
Kia 3.8% 3.5% 3.6%
Nissan 6.6% 5.7% 7.2%
Subaru 4.7% 4.3% 4.5%
Tesla 1.3% 0.4% 1.0%
Toyota 15.4% 15.5% 14.4%
Volkswagen Group 4.4% 4.4% 4.5%

Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer Apr 2019 Forecast Apr 2018 Actual Mar 2019 Actual YoY % Change MoM % Change
BMW $56,533 $52,205 $55,335 8.3% 2.2%
Daimler $64,418 $60,752 $64,468 6.0% -0.1%
FCA $36,259 $34,090 $35,637 6.4% 1.7%
Ford $39,183 $37,404 $38,692 4.8% 1.3%
GM $35,911 $34,768 $37,299 3.3% -3.7%
Honda $28,072 $27,991 $28,655 0.3% -2.0%
Hyundai $22,901 $22,701 $23,684 0.9% -3.3%
Kia $23,915 $23,027 $22,770 3.9% 5.0%
Nissan $27,404 $27,736 $27,884 -1.2% -1.7%
Subaru $29,305 $27,918 $29,237 5.0% 0.2%
Toyota $32,358 $32,309 $32,375 0.2% -0.1%
Volkswagen Group $37,081 $36,289 $37,311 2.2% -0.6%
Industry $34,319 $33,340 $34,383 2.9% -0.2%

Incentive Spending

Manufacturer Apr 2019 Forecast Apr 2018 Actual Mar 2019 Actual YoY % Change MoM % Change
BMW $5,467 $5,481 $5,593 -0.2% -2.2%
Daimler $5,685 $5,745 $5,785 -1.0% -1.7%
FCA $4,133 $4,354 $4,432 -5.1% -6.8%
Ford $4,078 $4,401 $4,174 -7.3% -2.3%
GM $4,799 $5,239 $4,965 -8.4% -3.4%
Honda $2,120 $1,632 $2,189 29.9% -3.2%
Hyundai $2,447 $2,755 $2,501 -11.2% -2.2%
Kia $3,396 $3,775 $3,471 -10.0% -2.2%
Nissan $3,532 $3,099 $3,681 14.0% -4.0%
Subaru $1,459 $1,344 $1,505 8.6% -3.0%
Toyota $2,205 $2,249 $2,329 -2.0% -5.3%
Volkswagen Group $3,545 $3,578 $3,753 -0.9% -5.5%
Industry $3,488 $3,640 $3,642 -4.2% -4.2%

Incentives as % of ATP

Manufacturer Apr 2019 Forecast Apr 2018 Actual Mar 2019 Actual YoY % Change MoM % Change
BMW 9.7% 10.5% 10.1% -7.9% -4.3%
Daimler 8.8% 9.5% 9.0% -6.7% -1.7%
FCA 11.4% 12.8% 12.4% -10.7% -8.3%
Ford 10.4% 11.8% 10.8% -11.5% -3.5%
GM 13.4% 15.1% 13.3% -11.3% 0.4%
Honda 7.6% 5.8% 7.6% 29.5% -1.1%
Hyundai 10.7% 12.1% 10.6% -11.9% 1.2%
Kia 14.2% 16.4% 15.2% -13.4% -6.8%
Nissan 12.9% 11.2% 13.2% 15.3% -2.4%
Subaru 5.0% 4.8% 5.1% 3.5% -3.3%
Toyota 6.8% 7.0% 7.2% -2.1% -5.3%
Volkswagen Group 9.6% 9.9% 10.1% -3.1% -5.0%
Industry 10.2% 10.9% 10.6% -6.9% -4.0%

Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company’s operations.

About TrueCar

TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) is a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars and enables consumers to engage with TrueCar Certified Dealers who are committed to providing a superior purchase experience. TrueCar operates its own branded site and its nationwide network of more than 16,000 Certified Dealers also powers car-buying programs for some of the largest U.S. membership and service organizations, including USAA, AARP, American Express, AAA and Sam’s Club. Over half of all new car buyers engage with the TrueCar network during their purchasing process. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in San Francisco and Austin, Texas. For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) Email: pressinquiries@truecar.com

About ALG

Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 50 years and in Canada since 1981.