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TrueCar’s ALG Forecasts New Car Auto Sales to Hit 17M SAAR for First Time in 2019 While Automakers Continue to Pull Back on Incentive Spend

ALG Introduces Tesla to Monthly Forecast

SANTA MONICA, Calif., (March 27, 2019) – TrueCar, Inc.’s (NASDAQ: TRUE) data and analytics subsidiary, ALG, projects total new vehicle sales will reach 1,570,365 units in March, down 1.5% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of active selling days in 2018. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 17 million units for the month. Excluding fleet sales, ALG expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,259,018 units, a decrease of 4.3% from a year ago, but an increase of 30% from last month, largely due to seasonality.

“The declines we’re seeing at the start of 2019 are not unexpected,” said Oliver Strauss, Chief Economist at TrueCar’s ALG. “Tariffs and the rising interest rate environment have made consumers a bit cautious; however, both the economy and the auto industry remain strong despite uncertainty about the future.”

While automakers have historically raised incentives in times of economic uncertainty, ALG expects OEMs to continue decreasing their incentive spend. Average incentive spending by automakers should reach an estimated $3,604 per vehicle in March down $191 or 5% from a year ago, and up 0.1% or $5 from February 2019. For March, ALG estimates ATP for new light vehicles was $34,213, up 2.8% from a year ago while incentives as a percentage of ATP was at 10.5% down 0.9 percentage points year-over-year.

“Incentives are not as rich as they were last year,” said Eric Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst for TrueCar’s ALG. “That’s a sign of balance in the automotive space as automakers are better aligning production and incentive spend with consumer demand. GM’s Cadillac and Chevrolet brands are showing the largest improvements in ALG’s Retail Health Index leading the luxury and mainstream sectors respectively in March.”

ALGs Retail Health Index (RHI) assesses whether OEMs are gaining market share through consumer demand or through incentives.

Due to Tesla’s increased volume, ALG is now publishing a sales forecast for the brand alongside its other automaker forecasts.

“The eyes of the automotive industry are fixed on Tesla now that the brand is competing at a transaction price that is more in line with mass market vehicles following the launch of the Model 3,” said Lyman.

Retail Health Index (Forecast)

RHI measures the changes in retail market share relative to changes in incentive spending and transaction price to gauge whether OEMs are “buying” retail share through increased incentives, or whether share increases are largely demand-driven. An OEM with a positive RHI score is demonstrating a healthy balance of incentive spend relative to market share, either by holding incentive spending flat and increasing share or by increasing incentives with a higher positive increase in retail share.

RHI, Top 12 Manufacturers

Mar 2019 Forecast YoY Change MoM Change
BMW -1.4% 0.0%
Daimler -4.5% 0.0%
FCA 0.2% -0.4%
Ford -0.3% -0.3%
GM 4.1% -0.1%
Honda -1.2% 0.1%
Hyundai 2.2% 0.4%
Kia 0.7% 0.0%
Nissan 0.6% 0.5%
Subaru 0.2% -0.4%
Toyota 0.3% 0.5%
Volkswagen Group 0.7% 0.4%

RHI, Luxury

Mar 2019 Forecast YoY Change MoM Change
Acura 1.3% -0.5%
Alfa Romeo -2.6% 1.0%
Audi -1.5% 0.4%
BMW -1.5% -0.1%
Cadillac 1.7% 0.0%
Genesis -6.2% 0.1%
Infiniti -1.8% 1.0%
Jaguar -2.5% -0.8%
Land Rover 0.5% 0.3%
Lexus 0.0% -0.3%
Lincoln 0.8% 0.5%
Maserati -1.0% 1.3%
Mercedes-Benz -4.4% 0.0%
Porsche 1.0% 0.3%
Volvo 1.6% -0.2%

RHI, Mainstream

Mar 2019 Forecast YoY Change MoM Change
Buick -0.6% -0.8%
Chevrolet 6.0% 0.1%
Chrysler -1.6% -0.3%
Dodge 0.0% 1.0%
Fiat 4.2% 0.9%
Ford -0.4% -0.3%
GMC 1.1% -0.6%
Honda -1.5% 0.2%
Hyundai 2.2% 0.4%
Jeep -1.1% 0.1%
Kia 0.7% 0.0%
Mazda 2.0% 0.3%
MINI 0.0% 0.7%
Mitsubishi 1.6% -0.5%
Nissan 1.0% 0.4%
Ram 2.6% -1.8%
Smart -31.0% -0.8%
Subaru 0.2% -0.4%
Toyota 0.4% 0.7%
Volkswagen 2.0% 0.4%

Total Unit Sales

Manufacturer Mar 2019 Forecast Mar 2018 Actual Feb 2019 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) MoM % Change MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 32,382 35,958 26,367 -9.9% -6.6% 22.8% 27.4%
Daimler 28,096 31,484 24,447 -10.8% -7.5% 14.9% 19.2%
FCA 205,961 216,948 162,679 -5.1% -1.5% 26.6% 31.3%
Ford 224,389 243,021 184,811 -7.7% -4.2% 21.4% 25.9%
GM 274,801 296,138 209,020 -7.2% -3.8% 31.5% 36.3%
Honda 142,901 142,392 115,139 0.4% 4.1% 24.1% 28.7%
Hyundai 59,945 60,154 45,612 -0.3% 3.3% 31.4% 36.3%
Kia 51,291 50,645 43,406 1.3% 5.0% 18.2% 22.5%
Nissan 141,365 162,535 114,342 -13.0% -9.8% 23.6% 28.2%
Subaru 57,765 58,097 49,081 -0.6% 3.1% 17.7% 22.1%
Tesla 19,598 4,050 15,400 383.9% 401.8% 27.3% 32.0%
Toyota 214,076 222,782 172,748 -3.9% -0.3% 23.9% 28.5%
Volkswagen Group 53,021 57,748 44,445 -8.2% -4.8% 19.3% 23.7%
Industry 1,570,365 1,653,529 1,265,094 -5.0% -1.5% 24.1% 28.7%

Retail Unit Sales

Manufacturer Mar 2019 Forecast Mar 2018 Actual Feb 2019 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) MoM % Change MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 31,370 35,701 25,667 -12.1% -8.9% 22.2% 26.7%
Daimler 26,116 29,889 23,224 -12.6% -9.4% 12.4% 16.6%
FCA 151,563 173,847 127,681 -12.8% -9.6% 18.7% 23.1%
Ford 144,348 174,953 120,992 -17.5% -14.4% 19.3% 23.7%
GM 212,077 239,148 158,244 -11.3% -8.0% 34.0% 39.0%
Honda 139,823 141,294 112,978 -1.0% 2.6% 23.8% 28.3%
Hyundai 48,600 48,804 33,436 -0.4% 3.3% 45.4% 50.7%
Kia 43,304 44,250 34,725 -2.1% 1.5% 24.7% 29.3%
Nissan 91,865 111,431 70,727 -17.6% -14.5% 29.9% 34.7%
Subaru 54,788 54,272 46,534 1.0% 4.7% 17.7% 22.1%
Tesla 19,598 4,050 15,400 383.9% 401.8% 27.3% 32.0%
Toyota 191,941 194,651 151,108 -1.4% 2.3% 27.0% 31.7%
Volkswagen Group 49,288 53,810 41,493 -8.4% -5.0% 18.8% 23.2%
Industry 1,259,018 1,363,629 1,007,392 -7.7% -4.3% 25.0% 29.6%

Fleet Unit Sales

Manufacturer Mar 2019 Forecast Mar 2018 Actual Feb 2019 Actual YoY % Change YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) MoM % Change MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW 1,012 257 700 293.9% 308.5% 44.5% 49.9%
Daimler 1,980 1,595 1,223 24.1% 28.7% 62.0% 68.0%
FCA 54,403 43,101 34,998 26.2% 30.9% 55.4% 61.2%
Ford 80,041 68,068 63,819 17.6% 21.9% 25.4% 30.1%
GM 62,724 56,990 50,776 10.1% 14.1% 23.5% 28.1%
Honda 3,078 1,098 2,161 180.3% 190.7% 42.4% 47.7%
Hyundai 11,344 12,736 13,704 -10.9% -7.6% -17.2% -14.2%
Kia 7,988 6,395 8,681 24.9% 29.5% -8.0% -4.6%
Nissan 49,500 51,104 43,615 -3.1% 0.4% 13.5% 17.7%
Subaru 2,977 3,825 2,547 -22.2% -19.3% 16.9% 21.2%
Tesla 0 0 0 0% 0% 0% 0%
Toyota 22,135 28,131 21,640 -21.3% -18.4% 2.3% 6.1%
Volkswagen Group 3,733 3,938 2,952 -5.2% -1.7% 26.4% 31.1%
Industry 311,352 289,900 257,702 7.4% 11.4% 20.8% 25.3%

Fleet Penetration

Manufacturer Mar 2019 Forecast Mar 2018 Actual Feb 2019 Actual YoY % Change MoM % Change
BMW 3.1% 0.7% 2.7% 337.4% 17.7%
Daimler 7.0% 5.1% 5.0% 39.1% 40.9%
FCA 26.4% 19.9% 21.5% 33.0% 22.8%
Ford 35.7% 28.0% 34.5% 27.4% 3.3%
GM 22.8% 19.2% 24.3% 18.6% -6.0%
Honda 2.2% 0.8% 1.9% 179.3% 14.7%
Hyundai 18.9% 21.2% 30.0% -10.6% -37.0%
Kia 15.6% 12.6% 20.0% 23.3% -22.1%
Nissan 35.0% 31.4% 38.1% 11.4% -8.2%
Subaru 5.2% 6.6% 5.2% -21.7% -0.7%
Tesla 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Toyota 10.3% 12.6% 12.5% -18.1% -17.5%
Volkswagen Group 7.0% 6.8% 6.6% 3.3% 6.0%
Industry 19.8% 17.5% 20.4% 13.1% -2.7%

Total Market Share

Manufacturer Mar 2019 Forecast Mar 2018 Actual Feb 2019 Actual
BMW 2.1% 2.2% 2.1%
Daimler 1.8% 1.9% 1.9%
FCA 13.1% 13.1% 12.9%
Ford 14.3% 14.7% 14.6%
GM 17.5% 17.9% 16.5%
Honda 9.1% 8.6% 9.1%
Hyundai 3.8% 3.6% 3.6%
Kia 3.3% 3.1% 3.4%
Nissan 9.0% 9.8% 9.0%
Subaru 3.7% 3.5% 3.9%
Tesla 1.2% 0.2% 1.2%
Toyota 13.6% 13.5% 13.7%
Volkswagen Group 3.4% 3.5% 3.5%

Retail Market Share

Manufacturer Mar 2019 Forecast Mar 2018 Actual Feb 2019 Actual
BMW 2.5% 2.6% 2.5%
Daimler 2.1% 2.2% 2.3%
FCA 12.0% 12.7% 12.7%
Ford 11.5% 12.8% 12.0%
GM 16.8% 17.5% 15.7%
Honda 11.1% 10.4% 11.2%
Hyundai 3.9% 3.6% 3.3%
Kia 3.4% 3.2% 3.4%
Nissan 7.3% 8.2% 7.0%
Subaru 4.4% 4.0% 4.6%
Tesla 1.6% 0.3% 1.5%
Toyota 15.2% 14.3% 15.0%
Volkswagen Group 3.9% 3.9% 4.1%

Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer Mar 2019 Forecast Mar 18 Feb 19 YoY MoM
BMW $56,533 $52,205 $55,335 8.3% 2.2%
Mercedes-Benz $64,418 $60,752 $64,468 6.0% -0.1%
Chrysler Group $36,259 $34,090 $35,637 6.4% 1.7%
Ford $39,183 $37,404 $38,692 4.8% 1.3%
GM $35,911 $34,768 $37,299 3.3% -3.7%
Honda $28,072 $27,991 $28,655 0.3% -2.0%
Hyundai $22,901 $22,701 $23,684 0.9% -3.3%
Kia $23,915 $23,027 $22,770 3.9% 5.0%
Nissan $27,404 $27,736 $27,884 -1.2% -1.7%
Subaru $29,305 $27,918 $29,237 5.0% 0.2%
Toyota $32,358 $32,309 $32,375 0.2% -0.1%
Volkswagen $37,081 $36,289 $37,311 2.2% -0.6%
Industry $34,213 $33,280 $34,411 2.8% -0.6%

Incentive Spending

Manufacturer Mar 2019 Forecast Mar 18 Feb 19 YoY MoM
BMW $5,689 $5,595 $5,714 1.7% -0.4%
Daimler $5,757 $4,775 $5,769 20.6% -0.2%
FCA $4,720 $4,579 $4,785 3.1% -1.4%
Ford $3,954 $4,167 $3,951 -5.1% 0.1%
GM $4,614 $5,667 $4,604 -18.6% 0.2%
Honda $2,235 $1,556 $2,280 43.6% -2.0%
Hyundai $2,510 $2,875 $2,560 -12.7% -2.0%
Kia $3,690 $3,858 $3,695 -4.4% -0.1%
Nissan $3,738 $3,772 $3,697 -0.9% 1.1%
Subaru $1,413 $1,199 $1,427 17.9% -1.0%
Toyota $2,255 $2,347 $2,245 -3.9% 0.5%
Volkswagen Group $3,460 $3,618 $3,419 -4.4% 1.2%
Industry $3,604 $3,795 $3,599 -5.0% 0.1%

Incentives as % of ATP

Manufacturer Mar 2019 Forecast Mar 18 Feb 19 YoY MoM
BMW 10.1% 10.7% 10.3% -6.1% -2.5%
Mercedes-Benz 8.9% 7.9% 8.9% 13.7% -0.1%
Chrysler Group 13.0% 13.4% 13.4% -3.1% -3.1%
Ford 10.1% 11.1% 10.2% -9.4% -1.2%
GM 12.8% 16.3% 12.3% -21.2% 4.1%
Honda 8.0% 5.6% 8.0% 43.2% 0.1%
Hyundai 11.0% 12.7% 10.8% -13.5% 1.4%
Kia 15.4% 16.8% 16.2% -7.9% -4.9%
Nissan 13.6% 13.6% 13.3% 0.3% 2.9%
Subaru 4.8% 4.3% 4.9% 12.3% -1.2%
Toyota 7.0% 7.3% 6.9% -4.1% 0.5%
Volkswagen 9.3% 10.0% 9.2% -6.4% 1.8%
Industry 10.5% 11.4% 10.5% -7.6% 0.7%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company’s operations.)